Meme-coin lottery — forward testPAPER ONLY

Strategy under test: many small bets, paid for by the rare monster. A win rate as low as 1% is fine — at $2.21 a bet, one true 1000x ($2.1M market cap from a ~$2.1k launch) returns roughly $1,900 before depth caps and carries ~859 losers on its back. Stakes: pump $2, every other venue $25; every entry pays constant-product impact against its entry pool. Everything below is measured through that lens: keep the future monsters in the net, cut everything else. No real money. Updated 2026-07-27 08:47 UTC · auto-refreshes every 5 min.
mint firehose: ok · 4s ago price marks: ok · -1s ago holder snapshots: ok · 48s ago

Collection — 2.0 days of continuous capture

mints tracked
67,527
40,731 in 24h
graduations
2,612
1,551 in 24h

Race totals — today (UTC)

MONSTER-HOLD
-8.7%
$170 in · portfolio $156 · 77 bets
pump −$15

Race totals — cumulative per book

MONSTER-HOLD
-68.5%
$1,417 in · portfolio $446 · 640 bets

Entry drift — could we fill at our quoted entries?

graduation entries measured
7,754
median next-quote drift
+0.0%
p25 +0.0% · p75 +0.0%
moved >10% against us
16%
median quote gap 1319s
Drift between our entry quote and the next quote — the realistic band a ~1-minute-latency fill lands in. Price impact at $2 size is negligible (~0.003% into a $60k pool); timing volatility is the whole story. We hold rather than snipe, so entry drift mostly shifts the base, not the thesis.

Race totals — by mint source

sourceMONSTER-HOLD
pump-69% ($-971)
Each cell: ROI (net $) for that book's tranches on coins from that source. Anonymous pool births (the GeckoTerminal catcher) are listed by their birth AMM — fluxbeam, pumpswap, uniswap-*, orca — where 'pumpswap' means births the WS mint stream missed, distinct from the 'pump' venue.

Strategy race — two books, same store, settled identically

MONSTER-HOLD — pump graduations, $2 lottery tickets; never sold — depth-capped mark-to-market
-68.5%
640 bets · $1,417 deployed · $446 portfolio value · 145 big winners · top-1 31%
block (UTC)betsinvalueROI
07-25 12–16h88$195$6-97.1%
pump −$189 (88b)
07-25 16–20h77$170$21-87.4%
pump −$149 (77b)
07-25 20–24h60$133$14-89.7%
pump −$119 (60b)
07-26 00–04h57$126$5-95.7%
pump −$121 (57b)
07-26 04–08h49$108$2-98.2%
pump −$107 (49b)
07-26 08–12h53$117$6-95.2%
pump −$112 (53b)
07-26 12–16h50$111$54-51.3%
pump −$57 (50b)
07-26 16–20h51$113$158+39.8%
pump +$45 (51b)
07-26 20–24h48$106$23-78.6%
pump −$84 (48b)
07-27 00–04h41$91$47-47.7%
pump −$43 (41b)
07-27 04–08h34$75$104+38.5%
pump +$29 (34b)
07-27 08–12h2$4$4-13.1%
pump −$1 (2b)
total640$1,417$446-68.5%
One book on display. MONSTER-HOLD: $2 lottery tickets on every pump.fun graduation with ≥$5k of sane pool depth, never sold — open positions valued at the depth-capped last quote, drained pools and rugs at zero. The tail thesis in its purest form: monsters take 19–140 days, so this box is judged in weeks. The DAY exit research (timed sells, targets, per-source books) lives in exits.py and can rejoin the race any time. The grey sub-line under each 4h block splits net by mint source.

Filter scoreboard — ranked by bets per kept big winner

filterdecidesbetsrug% wins keptkeepbets/winbestEV
relaunch_of_winat_mint3620.3%7123%515x$0.406
grad_firstat_migration6540.2%11236%672x$0.630
grad_grind24thinat_mig247136.6%115%61x$0.247
grind_24hthinat_24h5932.2%86%72x$0.319
uri_recycledat_mint1,2940.0%7323%1815x$0.146
grad_provenat_migration5841.9%3210%181,438x$0.914
buy_pressure5at_5m2,4516.7%13242%1944x$0.348
green5at_5m1,1250.2%5016%2239x$0.406
vol5_gt1kat_5m6,5029.6%28490%231,793,071x$0.392
grad_confirm5at_mig57,6479.2%30095%25946,861,039,266,400,128x$0.991
grad_fast30at_migration7,5849.2%29694%26946,861,039,266,400,128x$0.962
grad_entryat_migration7,8169.0%30396%26946,861,039,266,400,128x$0.960
grad_oracleORACLEORACLE7,8209.0%30396%26946,861,039,266,400,128x$1.091
buyers5_gt10at_5m8,0198.6%29192%281,793,071x$0.375
baselineat_mint59,5951.4%315100%189946,861,039,266,400,128x$0.266
A filter earns its place by cutting bets faster than it cuts winners — "keep" is the share of the cohort's 315 big winners it retained; a filter that boosts EV but drops the monsters is a trap. Green EV clears the cost line ($2.21 at the $2 reference stake — race stakes differ per venue). ORACLE = needs future knowledge, ceiling only. ONE-TOKEN = result rides on a single coin.

Winners study — what the $200k+ class looked like at launch

winners crawled
425
crawl 46h old
first-ever launches
86%
rotation-blind — see note
graduated
55%
median mint→ATH
6d
48% took >7 days
ATH tiernmedian days to ATHfirst-launch creators
$200k–1M10519d75%
$1M–10M9870d83%
>$10M73140d79%
One-shot crawl of pump.fun's listing, survivor-biased by design (listed by CURRENT mcap, so collapsed winners are invisible). ATHs are pump-tracker prints with no realizability leg — wash-printable, and one confirmed $60M farm print is in the set. "First-launch" cannot see wallet rotation (URI-lineage lower bound: 2 of 365 rotated). The duration findings are robust to both: monsters grind for weeks, they do not spike.

Staged entries — pyramid tickets into coins that keep proving themselves

planbetsdeployedreturnedROIwinners held
Instead of one ticket at mint, tickets are added as a coin passes survival gates: graduation, then still-grinding a day later (≥$60k, within 50% of its high, live quote), then again at day 3. Winners grind for weeks — persistence is the signal. Gate tranches activate once coins age past each gate; each tranche settles at its own entry price.

Predictions

None yet — deliberately.
Predictions start publishing here when a filter stack clears the cost line over a multi-week window with a sample no single coin dominates. Current best honest candidate: buy at graduation — keeps ~93% of big winners in ~3% of the bets and sits above cost — with cheap pre-screens (early-buyer count) that so far cut over half the bets while keeping every winner. Until then this page reports measurements, not tips.