Meme-coin lottery — forward testPAPER ONLY

Strategy under test: many tiny bets, paid for by the rare monster. A win rate as low as 1% is fine — at $2.21 a bet, one true 1000x ($2.1M market cap from a ~$2.1k launch) returns roughly $1,900 and carries ~860 losers on its back. Everything below is measured through that lens: keep the future monsters in the net, cut everything else. No real money. Updated 2026-07-25 19:49 UTC · auto-refreshes every 5 min.
mint firehose: ok · 7s ago price marks: ok · 0s ago holder snapshots: ok · 1s ago

Collection — 11.8 hours of continuous capture

mints tracked
12,655
12,655 in 24h
priced (paper entries)
10,878
price marks
275,110
graduations
503
503 in 24h
holder snapshots
9,984
1–9 min after mint
creator résumés
2,577
witnessed rugs
23
≥$30k → drained = $0 return
blacklisted wallets
121
grows only, never forgives

Economics — does the tail pay for the body?

cost per $2 bet
$2.21
stake + 1% fee + priority + rent
big winners in cohort
108
true ATH ≥ $210k (~100x)
bets per big win
101
unfiltered — the number filters must shrink
basket EV per bet
$0.185
sell-at-30%-of-peak, rugs = $0
edge
-91.6%
must reach 0% to go live
breakeven 1000x rate
1 in ~860
what the math demands
best multiple seen
9,192x
true ATH vs paper entry
SOL
$74

Peak multiples — 10,878 priced launches (true ATHs)

≥1x
8,891 · 81.73%
≥2x
2,828 · 26.00%
≥5x
1,064 · 9.78%
≥10x
622 · 5.72%
≥100x
132 · 1.21%
≥1000x
34 · 0.31%

Filter scoreboard — ranked by bets per kept big winner

filterdecidesbetsrug% wins keptkeepbets/winbestEV
relaunch_of_winthinat_mint631.6%5248%115x$0.367
grad_firstONE-TOKENat_migration1110.0%6863%2257x$1.918
grad_fast30at_migration3171.6%10698%32,140x$4.001
grad_entryat_migration3681.4%10799%32,140x$3.672
grad_oracleORACLEORACLE3691.4%10799%33,913x$2.399
uri_recycledat_mint2520.0%5551%515x$0.178
buy_pressure5at_5m9110.0%8680%1117x$0.189
green5at_5m1,1080.2%9386%1280x$0.510
grad_provenat_migration1132.7%87%14544x$3.694
cr_true_firstat_mint1,3250.2%6863%19121x$0.303
holders_top10_gt50ONE-TOKENat_10m1,1531.0%4945%242,140x$0.621
vol5_gt1kat_5m2,6110.5%10093%2618,957x$0.511
buyers5_gt10at_5m3,3340.6%10698%3141,069x$0.529
creator_freshat_mint3,2100.1%10294%313,913x$0.279
baselineat_mint10,8780.2%108100%1013,913x$0.185
A filter earns its place by cutting bets faster than it cuts winners — "keep" is the share of the cohort's 108 big winners it retained; a filter that boosts EV but drops the monsters is a trap. Green EV clears the cost line ($2.21). ORACLE = needs future knowledge, ceiling only. ONE-TOKEN = result rides on a single coin.

Strategy race — two books, same store, settled identically

MONSTER — grad + grind tranches; exit -50% trailing stop
+654.4%
325 bets · $718 deployed · $5,414 back · 106 big winners · top-1 78%
daybetscum incum outROI
2026-07-25325$718$5,414+654.4%
MONSTER-T25 — same book; tighter exit: -25% trailing stop
+591.1%
325 bets · $718 deployed · $4,959 back · 106 big winners · top-1 85%
daybetscum incum outROI
2026-07-25325$718$4,959+591.1%
HOURLY-HH — +$2 every hour a new high prints; exit -50% trailing stop
+349.0%
591 bets · $1,305 deployed · $5,860 back · 106 big winners · top-1 72%
daybetscum incum outROI
2026-07-25591$1,305$5,860+349.0%
MONSTER: $2 at graduation, +$2 at +24h/+72h only on higher highs; ruggers and serial-dud creators cut; exit −50% trailing stop, filled at the breaching quote. MONSTER-T25: same book, −25% stop. HOURLY-HH: +$2 every hour that prints a new high (max 48 adds), −50% stop. Open tranches mark to the last quote; daily rows accrue.

Staged entries — pyramid tickets into coins that keep proving themselves

planbetsdeployedreturnedROIwinners held
mint only10,878$24,020$2,010-91.6%108
graduation only368$813$1,351+66.3%107
grad + grind@24h368$813$1,351+66.3%107
grad + grind@24h+@72h368$813$1,351+66.3%107
Instead of one ticket at mint, tickets are added as a coin passes survival gates: graduation, then still-grinding a day later (≥$60k, within 50% of its high, live quote), then again at day 3. Winners grind for weeks — persistence is the signal. Gate tranches activate once coins age past each gate; each tranche settles at its own entry price.

Predictions

None yet — deliberately.
Predictions start publishing here when a filter stack clears the cost line over a multi-week window with a sample no single coin dominates. Current best honest candidate: buy at graduation — keeps ~93% of big winners in ~3% of the bets and sits above cost — with cheap pre-screens (early-buyer count) that so far cut over half the bets while keeping every winner. Until then this page reports measurements, not tips.