Meme-coin lottery — forward testPAPER ONLY

Strategy under test: many small bets, paid for by the rare monster. A win rate as low as 1% is fine — at $2.21 a bet, one true 1000x ($2.1M market cap from a ~$2.1k launch) returns roughly $1,900 before depth caps and carries ~859 losers on its back. Stakes: pump $2, every other venue $25; every entry pays constant-product impact against its entry pool. Everything below is measured through that lens: keep the future monsters in the net, cut everything else. No real money. Updated 2026-07-26 14:42 UTC · auto-refreshes every 5 min.
mint firehose: ok · 0s ago price marks: ok · 0s ago holder snapshots: ok · 1s ago

Collection — 30.7 hours of continuous capture

mints tracked
34,532
28,566 in 24h
graduations
1,399
1,182 in 24h

Race totals — today (UTC)

MONSTER-HOLD
-75.4%
$424 in · portfolio $104 · 192 bets
pump −$320
DAY-T50
-5.2%
$3,129 in → $2,965 out · 123 bets
gt:robinhood −$95 · gt:solana −$62 · pons −$7
DAY-T25
-3.1%
$3,129 in → $3,033 out · 123 bets
gt:robinhood −$68 · gt:solana −$18 · pons −$9
DAY-HOLD
-7.2%
$3,129 in · portfolio $2,903 · 123 bets
gt:robinhood −$72 · gt:solana −$147 · pons −$7

Race totals — cumulative per book

MONSTER-HOLD
-82.3%
$988 in · portfolio $175 · 447 bets
DAY-T50
-5.2%
$3,129 in → $2,965 out · 123 bets
DAY-T25
-3.1%
$3,129 in → $3,033 out · 123 bets
DAY-HOLD
-7.2%
$3,129 in · portfolio $2,903 · 123 bets

Entry drift — could we fill at our quoted entries?

graduation entries measured
2,968
median next-quote drift
+0.0%
p25 +0.0% · p75 +7.6%
moved >10% against us
23%
median quote gap 764s
Drift between our entry quote and the next quote — the realistic band a ~1-minute-latency fill lands in. Price impact at $2 size is negligible (~0.003% into a $60k pool); timing volatility is the whole story. We hold rather than snipe, so entry drift mostly shifts the base, not the thesis.

Race totals — by mint source

sourceMONSTER-HOLDDAY-T50DAY-T25DAY-HOLD
gt:robinhood-25% ($-95)-18% ($-68)-19% ($-72)
gt:solana-2% ($-62)-1% ($-18)-5% ($-147)
pons-27% ($-7)-36% ($-9)-27% ($-7)
pump-82% ($-813)
Each cell: ROI (net $) for that book's tranches on coins from that source. gt:* rows are pool-birth entries from the GeckoTerminal catcher.

Strategy race — two books, same store, settled identically

MONSTER-HOLD — pump graduations, $2 lottery tickets; never sold — depth-capped mark-to-market
-82.3%
447 bets · $988 deployed · $175 portfolio value · 104 big winners · top-1 8%
block (UTC)betsinvalueROI
07-25 08–12h30$66$3-95.8%
pump −$64 (30b)
07-25 12–16h88$195$8-95.9%
pump −$187 (88b)
07-25 16–20h77$170$30-82.2%
pump −$140 (77b)
07-25 20–24h60$133$30-77.6%
pump −$103 (60b)
07-26 00–04h57$126$7-94.3%
pump −$119 (57b)
07-26 04–08h49$108$4-96.1%
pump −$104 (49b)
07-26 08–12h53$117$40-65.7%
pump −$77 (53b)
07-26 12–16h33$73$53-27.9%
pump −$20 (33b)
total447$988$175-82.3%
DAY-T50 — non-pump venues; -50% trailing stop
-5.2%
123 bets · $3,129 deployed · $2,965 back · 17 big winners · top-1 3%
block (UTC)betsinoutROI
07-26 04–08h42$1,069$930-12.9%
gt:robinhood +$62 (3b) · gt:solana −$200 (39b)
07-26 08–12h49$1,247$1,236-0.9%
gt:robinhood −$104 (6b) · gt:solana +$93 (43b)
07-26 12–16h32$814$799-1.8%
gt:robinhood −$53 (6b) · gt:solana +$45 (25b) · pons −$7 (1b)
total123$3,129$2,965-5.2%
DAY-T25 — non-pump venues; -25% trailing stop
-3.1%
123 bets · $3,129 deployed · $3,033 back · 17 big winners · top-1 3%
block (UTC)betsinoutROI
07-26 04–08h42$1,069$978-8.5%
gt:robinhood +$66 (3b) · gt:solana −$157 (39b)
07-26 08–12h49$1,247$1,259+1.0%
gt:robinhood −$81 (6b) · gt:solana +$94 (43b)
07-26 12–16h32$814$797-2.1%
gt:robinhood −$53 (6b) · gt:solana +$45 (25b) · pons −$9 (1b)
total123$3,129$3,033-3.1%
DAY-HOLD — non-pump venues; no exit — the bound the day exits must beat
-7.2%
123 bets · $3,129 deployed · $2,903 portfolio value · 17 big winners · top-1 3%
block (UTC)betsinvalueROI
07-26 04–08h42$1,069$938-12.2%
gt:robinhood +$85 (3b) · gt:solana −$216 (39b)
07-26 08–12h49$1,247$1,168-6.3%
gt:robinhood −$104 (6b) · gt:solana +$26 (43b)
07-26 12–16h32$814$797-2.1%
gt:robinhood −$53 (6b) · gt:solana +$42 (25b) · pons −$7 (1b)
total123$3,129$2,903-7.2%
Two strategies, separated because they were always different games. MONSTER-HOLD: $2 lottery tickets on every pump.fun graduation with ≥$5k of sane pool depth, never sold — the tail thesis (monsters take 19–140 days), measured in weeks not hours. DAY-*: $25 positions on every non-pump graduation with ≥$50k of sane depth — fast-settling pool trades where the exit rule is the open question, so −50% / −25% trails race the never-sell bound. All entries pay constant-product impact; meteora is cut on both books; ruggers and serial-dud creators cut. The grey sub-line under each 4h block splits that block's net by mint source.

Filter scoreboard — ranked by bets per kept big winner

filterdecidesbetsrug% wins keptkeepbets/winbestEV
grad_grind24ONE-TOKENthinat_mig2410.0%10%11x$0.710
grind_24hthinat_24h30.0%14%31x$0.709
relaunch_of_winat_mint1980.5%5329%415x$0.417
grad_firstat_migration3820.3%7742%572x$0.711
grad_provenat_migration3251.8%2413%1479x$0.811
grad_confirm5at_mig52,8909.8%17296%1751,424x$0.582
grad_fast30at_migration2,9189.7%17295%1751,424x$0.547
uri_recycledat_mint9130.0%5329%1715x$0.127
grad_entryat_migration3,0589.3%17596%1751,424x$0.559
grad_oracleORACLEORACLE3,0609.3%17596%1751,424x$0.767
buy_pressure5at_5m1,9685.2%9251%2132x$0.298
green5at_5m1,1250.2%5027%2239x$0.409
replies_gt3thinat_10m620.0%21%312x$0.056
vol5_gt1kat_5m5,2825.1%16691%32176,525x$0.316
baselineat_mint30,0371.1%182100%16551,424x$0.166
A filter earns its place by cutting bets faster than it cuts winners — "keep" is the share of the cohort's 182 big winners it retained; a filter that boosts EV but drops the monsters is a trap. Green EV clears the cost line ($2.21 at the $2 reference stake — race stakes differ per venue). ORACLE = needs future knowledge, ceiling only. ONE-TOKEN = result rides on a single coin.

Winners study — what the $200k+ class looked like at launch

winners crawled
425
crawl 28h old
first-ever launches
86%
rotation-blind — see note
graduated
55%
median mint→ATH
6d
48% took >7 days
ATH tiernmedian days to ATHfirst-launch creators
$200k–1M10519d75%
$1M–10M9870d83%
>$10M73140d79%
One-shot crawl of pump.fun's listing, survivor-biased by design (listed by CURRENT mcap, so collapsed winners are invisible). ATHs are pump-tracker prints with no realizability leg — wash-printable, and one confirmed $60M farm print is in the set. "First-launch" cannot see wallet rotation (URI-lineage lower bound: 2 of 365 rotated). The duration findings are robust to both: monsters grind for weeks, they do not spike.

Staged entries — pyramid tickets into coins that keep proving themselves

planbetsdeployedreturnedROIwinners held
Instead of one ticket at mint, tickets are added as a coin passes survival gates: graduation, then still-grinding a day later (≥$60k, within 50% of its high, live quote), then again at day 3. Winners grind for weeks — persistence is the signal. Gate tranches activate once coins age past each gate; each tranche settles at its own entry price.

Predictions

None yet — deliberately.
Predictions start publishing here when a filter stack clears the cost line over a multi-week window with a sample no single coin dominates. Current best honest candidate: buy at graduation — keeps ~93% of big winners in ~3% of the bets and sits above cost — with cheap pre-screens (early-buyer count) that so far cut over half the bets while keeping every winner. Until then this page reports measurements, not tips.