Strategy under test: many small bets, paid for by the rare monster.
A win rate as low as 1% is fine — at $2.24 a bet, one true 1000x
($2.1M market cap from a ~$2.1k launch) returns roughly
$1,900 before depth caps and carries ~859
losers on its back. Stakes: pump $2, every other venue $5; every entry pays constant-product
impact against its entry pool. Everything below is measured through that lens:
keep the future monsters in the net, cut everything else.
No real money · built 2026-07-28 02:27 UTC · now
mint firehose: ok · 1s agoprice marks: ok · 1s agoholder snapshots: ok · 41s ago·
Collection — 2.8 days of continuous capture
mints tracked
97,895
39,818 in 24h
graduations
3,538
1,274 in 24h
Race totals — today (UTC)
MONSTER-HOLD
+0.0%
$0 in · portfolio $0 · 0 bets
DAY-1H TOP PICKS
+0.0%
$0 in → $0 out · 0 bets
1H-pumpswap
+0.0%
$0 in → $0 out · 0 bets
1H-uniswap-v3-robinhood
+0.0%
$0 in → $0 out · 0 bets
1H-uniswap-v4-robinhood
+0.0%
$0 in → $0 out · 0 bets
1H-dyorswap-robinhood
+0.0%
$0 in → $0 out · 0 bets
1H-orca
+0.0%
$0 in → $0 out · 0 bets
Race totals — cumulative per book
MONSTER-HOLD
-75.1%
$2,317 in · portfolio $577 · 1,033 bets
DAY-1H TOP PICKS
-3.6%
$301 in → $290 out · 57 bets
1H-pumpswap
+20.6%
$380 in → $458 out · 72 bets
1H-uniswap-v3-robinhood
-4.5%
$185 in → $176 out · 35 bets
1H-uniswap-v4-robinhood
-4.7%
$100 in → $95 out · 19 bets
1H-dyorswap-robinhood
+126.2%
$26 in → $60 out · 5 bets
1H-orca
-8.0%
$53 in → $49 out · 10 bets
Entry drift — could we fill at our quoted entries?
graduation entries measured
10,003
median next-quote drift
+0.0%
p25 +0.0% · p75 +1.6%
moved >10% against us
19%
median quote gap 1052s
Drift between our entry quote and the next quote — the realistic band a ~1-minute-latency fill lands in. Price impact at $2 size is negligible (~0.003% into a $60k pool); timing volatility is the whole story. We hold rather than snipe, so entry drift mostly shifts the base, not the thesis.
Race totals — by mint source
source
MONSTER-HOLD
DAY-1H TOP PICKS
1H-pumpswap
1H-uniswap-v3-robinhood
1H-uniswap-v4-robinhood
1H-dyorswap-robinhood
1H-orca
dyorswap-robinhood
—
-30% ($-2)
—
—
—
+126% ($33)
—
orca
—
—
—
—
—
—
-8% ($-4)
pump
-75% ($-1,740)
—
—
—
—
—
—
pumpswap
—
+5% ($11)
+21% ($78)
—
—
—
—
uniswap-v3-robinhood
—
-25% ($-13)
—
-5% ($-8)
—
—
—
uniswap-v4-robinhood
—
-32% ($-7)
—
—
-5% ($-5)
—
—
Each cell: ROI (net $) for that book's tranches on coins
from that source. Anonymous pool births (the GeckoTerminal catcher) are listed by their birth AMM — fluxbeam, pumpswap, uniswap-*, orca — where 'pumpswap' means births the WS mint stream missed, distinct from the 'pump' venue.
Fluxbeam cut 2026-07-27 — honeypot. Jupiter round-trip test on live "deep" pools: buy $25 → sell back $0.00 (sell impact 99.99%; one-way token-2022 valves). Prices printed, exits did not exist — its "+29–84%" was unrealizable. The pilot retargeted to pumpswap-birth graduations, which round-trip at ~−0.7% (verified). Sellability is now checked pre-trade on every live buy.
Strategy race — two books, same store, settled identically
MONSTER-HOLD — pump graduations, $2 lottery tickets; never sold — depth-capped mark-to-market
-75.1%
1,033 bets · $2,317 deployed · $577 portfolio value · 223 big winners · top-1 14%
session (UTC)
bets
in
value
ROI
07-25 EU
71
$159
$4
-97.6%
pump −$155 (71b)
07-25 US
152
$341
$29
-91.6%
pump −$312 (152b)
07-25 ASIA
112
$251
$14
-94.5%
pump −$237 (112b)
07-26 EU
106
$238
$12
-95.1%
pump −$226 (106b)
07-26 US
99
$222
$104
-53.4%
pump −$118 (99b)
07-26 ASIA
80
$179
$70
-61.1%
pump −$110 (80b)
07-27 EU
129
$289
$45
-84.3%
pump −$244 (129b)
07-27 US
179
$401
$131
-67.3%
pump −$270 (179b)
07-27 ASIA
105
$235
$169
-28.1%
pump −$66 (105b)
total
1,033
$2,317
$577
-75.1%
DAY-1H TOP PICKS — yesterday's profitable sources only; EU all venues, US robinhood-only; sell everything 1h after entry — the basket book
-3.6%
57 bets · $301 deployed · $290 back · 15 big winners · top-1 5%
72 bets · $380 deployed · $458 back · 25 big winners · top-1 13%
session (UTC)
bets
in
out
ROI
07-26 EU
30
$158
$226
+42.6%
pumpswap +$67 (30b)
07-27 EU
42
$221
$232
+4.9%
pumpswap +$11 (42b)
total
72
$380
$458
+20.6%
1H-uniswap-v3-robinhood — uniswap-v3-robinhood births; sell at 1h
-4.5%
35 bets · $185 deployed · $176 back · 6 big winners · top-1 19%
session (UTC)
bets
in
out
ROI
07-26 EU
8
$42
$39
-7.8%
uniswap-v3-robinhood −$3 (8b)
07-26 US
17
$90
$98
+9.1%
uniswap-v3-robinhood +$8 (17b)
07-27 EU
6
$32
$36
+14.4%
uniswap-v3-robinhood +$5 (6b)
07-27 US
4
$21
$3
-84.4%
uniswap-v3-robinhood −$18 (4b)
total
35
$185
$176
-4.5%
1H-uniswap-v4-robinhood — uniswap-v4-robinhood births; sell at 1h
-4.7%
19 bets · $100 deployed · $95 back · 4 big winners · top-1 10%
session (UTC)
bets
in
out
ROI
07-26 EU
6
$32
$34
+8.0%
uniswap-v4-robinhood +$3 (6b)
07-26 US
9
$47
$47
-0.9%
uniswap-v4-robinhood −$0 (9b)
07-27 EU
4
$21
$14
-32.5%
uniswap-v4-robinhood −$7 (4b)
total
19
$100
$95
-4.7%
1H-dyorswap-robinhood — dyorswap-robinhood births; sell at 1h
+126.2%
5 bets · $26 deployed · $60 back · 1 big winners · top-1 72%
session (UTC)
bets
in
out
ROI
07-26 US
4
$21
$56
+165.3%
dyorswap-robinhood +$35 (4b)
07-27 EU
1
$5
$4
-30.1%
dyorswap-robinhood −$2 (1b)
total
5
$26
$60
+126.2%
1H-orca — orca births; sell at 1h
-8.0%
10 bets · $53 deployed · $49 back · 0 big winners · top-1 10%
session (UTC)
bets
in
out
ROI
07-26 EU
7
$37
$34
-8.0%
orca −$3 (7b)
07-27 EU
3
$16
$15
-7.9%
orca −$1 (3b)
total
10
$53
$49
-8.0%
MONSTER-HOLD, the DAY-1H TOP PICKS basket (each day trades only the sources whose 1H book was profitable the PREVIOUS UTC day — no history, no bet), and one tracking box per non-pump birth source (auto-enrolled at 20+ graduations, ≥5 gate-passing bets) running the sell-at-1h rule. Session policy: EU (06–14 UTC) trades every venue; US (14–22) trades robinhood rails only — the Solana sources lose in US hours (pumpswap −20%) while robinhood held up; ASIA (22–06) trades nowhere. Every excluded combination keeps being logged and graded nightly as a "benched cell", so a policy exclusion can be reversed on evidence. MONSTER-HOLD: $2 lottery tickets on every pump.fun graduation with ≥$5k of sane pool depth, never sold — open positions valued at the depth-capped last quote, drained pools and rugs at zero. The tail thesis in its purest form: monsters take 19–140 days, so this box is judged in weeks. The DAY exit research (timed sells, targets, per-source books) lives in exits.py and can rejoin the race any time. The grey sub-line under each 4h block splits net by mint source.
Filter scoreboard — measured over the traded universe only (1,479 qualifying graduations)
filter
decides
bets
rug%
wins kept
keep
bets/win
best
EV
replies_gt3thin
at_10m
3
0.0%
1
0%
3
1x
$0.782
relaunch_of_win
at_mint
335
0.0%
109
38%
3
15x
$0.347
uri_recycled
at_mint
366
0.0%
112
39%
3
33x
$0.470
green5
at_5m
362
3.9%
96
33%
4
66x
$1.327
cr_true_first
at_mint
665
0.0%
169
59%
4
126x
$1.320
grad_first
at_migration
665
0.0%
169
59%
4
72x
$0.653
buy_pressure5
at_5m
690
10.9%
166
58%
4
41x
$0.807
holders_top10_gt50
at_10m
490
21.8%
113
39%
4
66x
$0.675
grind_24hthin
at_24h
35
34.3%
8
4%
4
4x
$0.444
vol5_gt1k
at_5m
1,228
11.7%
275
95%
4
216x
$1.379
dev_share_lt2
at_mint
1,006
19.2%
224
78%
4
216x
$0.962
dev_share_lt5
at_mint
1,068
18.1%
235
82%
5
216x
$1.159
grad_confirm5
at_mig5
1,284
14.8%
282
98%
5
106x
$0.826
creator_fresh
at_mint
1,148
16.8%
250
87%
5
216x
$1.273
baseline
at_mint
1,479
13.0%
288
100%
5
216x
$1.631
A filter earns its place by cutting bets faster than it cuts
winners — "keep" is the share of the cohort's 288 big winners it retained; a filter that
boosts EV but drops the monsters is a trap. Green EV clears the cost line ($2.24 at the $2 reference stake — race stakes differ per venue).
ORACLE = needs future knowledge, ceiling only. ONE-TOKEN = result rides on a single coin.
Research loop — nightly re-grade of every exit and signal
Winners study — what the $200k+ class looked like at launch
winners crawled
425
crawl 64h old
first-ever launches
85%
rotation-blind — see note
graduated
55%
median mint→ATH
6d
48% took >7 days
ATH tier
n
median days to ATH
first-launch creators
$200k–1M
105
19d
75%
$1M–10M
98
70d
83%
>$10M
73
140d
79%
One-shot crawl of pump.fun's listing, survivor-biased by
design (listed by CURRENT mcap, so collapsed winners are invisible). ATHs are pump-tracker prints
with no realizability leg — wash-printable, and one confirmed $60M farm print is in the set.
"First-launch" cannot see wallet rotation (URI-lineage lower bound: 2 of 365 rotated).
The duration findings are robust to both: monsters grind for weeks, they do not spike.
Staged entries — pyramid tickets into coins that keep proving themselves
plan
bets
deployed
returned
ROI
winners held
Instead of one ticket at mint, tickets are added as a coin
passes survival gates: graduation, then still-grinding a day later (≥$60k, within 50% of its high,
live quote), then again at day 3. Winners grind for weeks — persistence is the signal. Gate tranches
activate once coins age past each gate; each tranche settles at its own entry price.
Predictions
None yet — deliberately.
Predictions start publishing here when a strategy clears
its cost line over a multi-week window with a sample no single coin dominates. Status after the
2026-07-26/27 audits: no filter currently clears cost on the honest scoreboard (the early
"graduation entry clears cost" reading was clone-farm wash-print inflation, since guarded away).
The live candidates being measured instead: the MONSTER lottery (needs weeks by construction) and
the fluxbeam 1-hour pop from the exit grid (+69% on 134 bets, one regime — an execution-truth
pilot is planned, not a tip). This page reports measurements, not tips.