Meme-coin lottery — forward testPAPER ONLY

Strategy under test: many small bets, paid for by the rare monster. A win rate as low as 1% is fine — at $2.21 a bet, one true 1000x ($2.1M market cap from a ~$2.1k launch) returns roughly $1,900 before depth caps and carries ~859 losers on its back. Stakes: pump $2, every other venue $25; every entry pays constant-product impact against its entry pool. Everything below is measured through that lens: keep the future monsters in the net, cut everything else. No real money. Updated 2026-07-27 06:35 UTC · auto-refreshes every 5 min.
mint firehose: ok · 10s ago price marks: ok · 1s ago holder snapshots: ok · 2s ago

Collection — 46.6 hours of continuous capture

mints tracked
64,509
40,007 in 24h
graduations
2,492
1,556 in 24h

Race totals — today (UTC)

MONSTER-HOLD
-18.2%
$131 in · portfolio $107 · 59 bets
pump −$24
DAY-T50
-20.8%
$2,392 in → $1,895 out · 94 bets
gt:robinhood −$18 · gt:solana −$478
DAY-T25
-19.2%
$2,392 in → $1,932 out · 94 bets
gt:robinhood −$24 · gt:solana −$436
DAY-HOLD
-22.7%
$2,392 in · portfolio $1,850 · 94 bets
gt:robinhood −$32 · gt:solana −$510

Race totals — cumulative per book

MONSTER-HOLD
-72.9%
$1,377 in · portfolio $373 · 622 bets
DAY-T50
-25.4%
$8,575 in → $6,400 out · 337 bets
DAY-T25
-21.6%
$8,575 in → $6,727 out · 337 bets
DAY-HOLD
-31.0%
$8,575 in · portfolio $5,915 · 337 bets

Entry drift — could we fill at our quoted entries?

graduation entries measured
7,036
median next-quote drift
+0.0%
p25 +0.0% · p75 +0.0%
moved >10% against us
17%
median quote gap 1248s
Drift between our entry quote and the next quote — the realistic band a ~1-minute-latency fill lands in. Price impact at $2 size is negligible (~0.003% into a $60k pool); timing volatility is the whole story. We hold rather than snipe, so entry drift mostly shifts the base, not the thesis.

Race totals — by mint source

sourceMONSTER-HOLDDAY-T50DAY-T25DAY-HOLD
gt:robinhood-19% ($-351)-11% ($-197)-22% ($-407)
gt:solana-27% ($-1,797)-24% ($-1,634)-33% ($-2,212)
pons-52% ($-26)-33% ($-17)-79% ($-40)
pump-73% ($-1,005)
Each cell: ROI (net $) for that book's tranches on coins from that source. gt:* rows are pool-birth entries from the GeckoTerminal catcher.

Strategy race — two books, same store, settled identically

MONSTER-HOLD — pump graduations, $2 lottery tickets; never sold — depth-capped mark-to-market
-72.9%
622 bets · $1,377 deployed · $373 portfolio value · 141 big winners · top-1 32%
block (UTC)betsinvalueROI
07-25 08–12h30$66$2-96.6%
pump −$64 (30b)
07-25 12–16h88$195$6-97.1%
pump −$189 (88b)
07-25 16–20h77$170$21-87.7%
pump −$150 (77b)
07-25 20–24h60$133$12-90.8%
pump −$121 (60b)
07-26 00–04h57$126$6-95.5%
pump −$121 (57b)
07-26 04–08h49$108$2-98.2%
pump −$107 (49b)
07-26 08–12h53$117$6-95.0%
pump −$111 (53b)
07-26 12–16h50$111$51-54.2%
pump −$60 (50b)
07-26 16–20h51$113$139+22.8%
pump +$26 (51b)
07-26 20–24h48$106$22-79.5%
pump −$85 (48b)
07-27 00–04h41$91$44-51.1%
pump −$46 (41b)
07-27 04–08h18$40$62+56.7%
pump +$23 (18b)
total622$1,377$373-72.9%
DAY-T50 — non-pump venues; -50% trailing stop
-25.4%
337 bets · $8,575 deployed · $6,400 back · 42 big winners · top-1 2%
block (UTC)betsinoutROI
07-26 04–08h42$1,069$906-15.2%
gt:robinhood +$62 (3b) · gt:solana −$224 (39b)
07-26 08–12h49$1,247$1,113-10.7%
gt:robinhood −$112 (6b) · gt:solana −$22 (43b)
07-26 12–16h57$1,450$1,224-15.6%
gt:robinhood −$47 (16b) · gt:solana −$162 (40b) · pons −$18 (1b)
07-26 16–20h50$1,272$806-36.6%
gt:robinhood −$127 (15b) · gt:solana −$330 (34b) · pons −$8 (1b)
07-26 20–24h45$1,145$455-60.2%
gt:robinhood −$109 (9b) · gt:solana −$581 (36b)
07-27 00–04h61$1,552$992-36.1%
gt:robinhood −$78 (17b) · gt:solana −$482 (44b)
07-27 04–08h33$840$904+7.6%
gt:robinhood +$60 (6b) · gt:solana +$4 (27b)
total337$8,575$6,400-25.4%
DAY-T25 — non-pump venues; -25% trailing stop
-21.6%
337 bets · $8,575 deployed · $6,727 back · 42 big winners · top-1 2%
block (UTC)betsinoutROI
07-26 04–08h42$1,069$928-13.1%
gt:robinhood +$66 (3b) · gt:solana −$206 (39b)
07-26 08–12h49$1,247$1,128-9.6%
gt:robinhood −$86 (6b) · gt:solana −$33 (43b)
07-26 12–16h57$1,450$1,271-12.4%
gt:robinhood −$30 (16b) · gt:solana −$140 (40b) · pons −$9 (1b)
07-26 16–20h50$1,272$944-25.8%
gt:robinhood −$52 (15b) · gt:solana −$269 (34b) · pons −$8 (1b)
07-26 20–24h45$1,145$524-54.3%
gt:robinhood −$71 (9b) · gt:solana −$550 (36b)
07-27 00–04h61$1,552$1,015-34.6%
gt:robinhood −$84 (17b) · gt:solana −$453 (44b)
07-27 04–08h33$840$916+9.1%
gt:robinhood +$60 (6b) · gt:solana +$17 (27b)
total337$8,575$6,727-21.6%
DAY-HOLD — non-pump venues; no exit — the bound the day exits must beat
-31.0%
337 bets · $8,575 deployed · $5,915 portfolio value · 42 big winners · top-1 2%
block (UTC)betsinvalueROI
07-26 04–08h42$1,069$852-20.2%
gt:robinhood +$49 (3b) · gt:solana −$265 (39b)
07-26 08–12h49$1,247$1,014-18.6%
gt:robinhood −$111 (6b) · gt:solana −$122 (43b)
07-26 12–16h57$1,450$1,117-23.0%
gt:robinhood −$75 (16b) · gt:solana −$237 (40b) · pons −$21 (1b)
07-26 16–20h50$1,272$710-44.2%
gt:robinhood −$122 (15b) · gt:solana −$420 (34b) · pons −$19 (1b)
07-26 20–24h45$1,145$370-67.6%
gt:robinhood −$117 (9b) · gt:solana −$658 (36b)
07-27 00–04h61$1,552$946-39.0%
gt:robinhood −$92 (17b) · gt:solana −$514 (44b)
07-27 04–08h33$840$904+7.6%
gt:robinhood +$60 (6b) · gt:solana +$4 (27b)
total337$8,575$5,915-31.0%
Two strategies, separated because they were always different games. MONSTER-HOLD: $2 lottery tickets on every pump.fun graduation with ≥$5k of sane pool depth, never sold — the tail thesis (monsters take 19–140 days), measured in weeks not hours. DAY-*: $25 positions on every non-pump graduation with ≥$50k of sane depth — fast-settling pool trades where the exit rule is the open question, so −50% / −25% trails race the never-sell bound. All entries pay constant-product impact; meteora is cut on both books; ruggers and serial-dud creators cut. The grey sub-line under each 4h block splits that block's net by mint source.

Filter scoreboard — ranked by bets per kept big winner

filterdecidesbetsrug% wins keptkeepbets/winbestEV
grad_grind24thinat_mig242634.6%65%41x$0.239
relaunch_of_winat_mint3430.3%7023%515x$0.401
grad_firstat_migration6300.2%10736%672x$0.633
grind_24hthinat_24h3026.7%44%82x$0.357
uri_recycledat_mint1,2410.0%7224%1715x$0.144
grad_provenat_migration5391.9%3110%173,108x$0.996
buy_pressure5at_5m2,3846.7%13043%1844x$0.344
green5at_5m1,1250.2%5017%2239x$0.406
vol5_gt1kat_5m6,3619.1%27290%231,793,071x$0.388
grad_confirm5at_mig57,0479.2%28695%25946,861,039,266,400,128x$1.042
grad_fast30ONE-TOKENat_migration6,9949.2%28394%25946,861,039,266,400,128x$1.012
grad_entryat_migration7,2179.0%28996%25946,861,039,266,400,128x$1.010
grad_oracleORACLEORACLE7,2189.0%28996%25946,861,039,266,400,128x$1.143
buyers5_gt10at_5m7,8588.1%27993%281,793,071x$0.372
baselineat_mint56,3221.3%301100%187946,861,039,266,400,128x$0.268
A filter earns its place by cutting bets faster than it cuts winners — "keep" is the share of the cohort's 301 big winners it retained; a filter that boosts EV but drops the monsters is a trap. Green EV clears the cost line ($2.21 at the $2 reference stake — race stakes differ per venue). ORACLE = needs future knowledge, ceiling only. ONE-TOKEN = result rides on a single coin.

Winners study — what the $200k+ class looked like at launch

winners crawled
425
crawl 44h old
first-ever launches
86%
rotation-blind — see note
graduated
55%
median mint→ATH
6d
48% took >7 days
ATH tiernmedian days to ATHfirst-launch creators
$200k–1M10519d75%
$1M–10M9870d83%
>$10M73140d79%
One-shot crawl of pump.fun's listing, survivor-biased by design (listed by CURRENT mcap, so collapsed winners are invisible). ATHs are pump-tracker prints with no realizability leg — wash-printable, and one confirmed $60M farm print is in the set. "First-launch" cannot see wallet rotation (URI-lineage lower bound: 2 of 365 rotated). The duration findings are robust to both: monsters grind for weeks, they do not spike.

Staged entries — pyramid tickets into coins that keep proving themselves

planbetsdeployedreturnedROIwinners held
Instead of one ticket at mint, tickets are added as a coin passes survival gates: graduation, then still-grinding a day later (≥$60k, within 50% of its high, live quote), then again at day 3. Winners grind for weeks — persistence is the signal. Gate tranches activate once coins age past each gate; each tranche settles at its own entry price.

Predictions

None yet — deliberately.
Predictions start publishing here when a filter stack clears the cost line over a multi-week window with a sample no single coin dominates. Current best honest candidate: buy at graduation — keeps ~93% of big winners in ~3% of the bets and sits above cost — with cheap pre-screens (early-buyer count) that so far cut over half the bets while keeping every winner. Until then this page reports measurements, not tips.