Meme-coin lottery — forward testPAPER ONLY
Strategy under test: many small bets, paid for by the rare monster.
A win rate as low as 1% is fine — at $2.21 a bet, one true 1000x
($2.1M market cap from a ~$2.1k launch) returns roughly
$1,900 before depth caps and carries ~859
losers on its back. Stakes: pump $2, every other venue $25; every entry pays constant-product
impact against its entry pool. Everything below is measured through that lens:
keep the future monsters in the net, cut everything else.
No real money. Updated 2026-07-27 04:32 UTC · auto-refreshes every 5 min.
mint firehose: ok · 7s ago
price marks: ok · 1s ago
holder snapshots: ok · 1s ago
Collection — 44.5 hours of continuous capture
mints tracked
61,156
38,328 in 24h
graduations
2,384
1,514 in 24h
Race totals — today (UTC)
MONSTER-HOLD
-15.5%
$91 in · portfolio $77 · 41 bets
pump −$14
DAY-T50
-22.8%
$1,552 in → $1,198 out · 61 bets
gt:robinhood −$21 · gt:solana −$334
DAY-T25
-21.3%
$1,552 in → $1,222 out · 61 bets
gt:robinhood −$24 · gt:solana −$306
DAY-HOLD
-24.9%
$1,552 in · portfolio $1,165 · 61 bets
gt:robinhood −$22 · gt:solana −$365
Race totals — cumulative per book
MONSTER-HOLD
-68.0%
$1,337 in · portfolio $428 · 604 bets
DAY-T50
-23.8%
$7,735 in → $5,896 out · 304 bets
DAY-T25
-19.7%
$7,735 in → $6,209 out · 304 bets
DAY-HOLD
-28.9%
$7,735 in · portfolio $5,499 · 304 bets
Entry drift — could we fill at our quoted entries?
graduation entries measured
6,590
median next-quote drift
+0.0%
p25 +0.0% · p75 +0.0%
moved >10% against us
17%
median quote gap 1168s
Drift between our entry quote and the next quote — the realistic band a ~1-minute-latency fill lands in. Price impact at $2 size is negligible (~0.003% into a $60k pool); timing volatility is the whole story. We hold rather than snipe, so entry drift mostly shifts the base, not the thesis.
Race totals — by mint source
| source | MONSTER-HOLD | DAY-T50 | DAY-T25 | DAY-HOLD |
|---|
| gt:robinhood | — | -21% ($-354) | -12% ($-198) | -21% ($-351) |
| gt:solana | — | -24% ($-1,459) | -22% ($-1,311) | -31% ($-1,849) |
| pons | — | -52% ($-26) | -33% ($-17) | -71% ($-36) |
| pump | -68% ($-909) | — | — | — |
Each cell: ROI (net $) for that book's tranches on coins
from that source. gt:* rows are pool-birth entries from the GeckoTerminal catcher.
Strategy race — two books, same store, settled identically
MONSTER-HOLD — pump graduations, $2 lottery tickets; never sold — depth-capped mark-to-market
-68.0%
604 bets · $1,337 deployed · $428 portfolio value · 137 big winners · top-1 40%
| block (UTC) | bets | in | value | ROI |
|---|
| 07-25 08–12h | 30 | $66 | $3 | -96.2% |
| pump −$64 (30b) |
| 07-25 12–16h | 88 | $195 | $6 | -97.0% |
| pump −$189 (88b) |
| 07-25 16–20h | 77 | $170 | $22 | -87.0% |
| pump −$148 (77b) |
| 07-25 20–24h | 60 | $133 | $17 | -87.6% |
| pump −$116 (60b) |
| 07-26 00–04h | 57 | $126 | $6 | -95.4% |
| pump −$120 (57b) |
| 07-26 04–08h | 49 | $108 | $2 | -98.1% |
| pump −$106 (49b) |
| 07-26 08–12h | 53 | $117 | $6 | -94.8% |
| pump −$111 (53b) |
| 07-26 12–16h | 50 | $111 | $63 | -43.3% |
| pump −$48 (50b) |
| 07-26 16–20h | 51 | $113 | $191 | +68.9% |
| pump +$78 (51b) |
| 07-26 20–24h | 48 | $106 | $37 | -65.2% |
| pump −$69 (48b) |
| 07-27 00–04h | 41 | $91 | $77 | -15.5% |
| pump −$14 (41b) |
| total | 604 | $1,337 | $428 | -68.0% |
DAY-T50 — non-pump venues; -50% trailing stop
-23.8%
304 bets · $7,735 deployed · $5,896 back · 38 big winners · top-1 2%
| block (UTC) | bets | in | out | ROI |
|---|
| 07-26 04–08h | 42 | $1,069 | $906 | -15.2% |
| gt:robinhood +$62 (3b) · gt:solana −$224 (39b) |
| 07-26 08–12h | 49 | $1,247 | $1,115 | -10.6% |
| gt:robinhood −$112 (6b) · gt:solana −$20 (43b) |
| 07-26 12–16h | 57 | $1,450 | $1,224 | -15.6% |
| gt:robinhood −$47 (16b) · gt:solana −$162 (40b) · pons −$18 (1b) |
| 07-26 16–20h | 50 | $1,272 | $831 | -34.7% |
| gt:robinhood −$127 (15b) · gt:solana −$306 (34b) · pons −$8 (1b) |
| 07-26 20–24h | 45 | $1,145 | $624 | -45.5% |
| gt:robinhood −$109 (9b) · gt:solana −$413 (36b) |
| 07-27 00–04h | 61 | $1,552 | $1,198 | -22.8% |
| gt:robinhood −$21 (17b) · gt:solana −$334 (44b) |
| total | 304 | $7,735 | $5,896 | -23.8% |
DAY-T25 — non-pump venues; -25% trailing stop
-19.7%
304 bets · $7,735 deployed · $6,209 back · 38 big winners · top-1 2%
| block (UTC) | bets | in | out | ROI |
|---|
| 07-26 04–08h | 42 | $1,069 | $928 | -13.1% |
| gt:robinhood +$66 (3b) · gt:solana −$206 (39b) |
| 07-26 08–12h | 49 | $1,247 | $1,129 | -9.5% |
| gt:robinhood −$86 (6b) · gt:solana −$32 (43b) |
| 07-26 12–16h | 57 | $1,450 | $1,271 | -12.4% |
| gt:robinhood −$31 (16b) · gt:solana −$140 (40b) · pons −$9 (1b) |
| 07-26 16–20h | 50 | $1,272 | $969 | -23.8% |
| gt:robinhood −$52 (15b) · gt:solana −$244 (34b) · pons −$8 (1b) |
| 07-26 20–24h | 45 | $1,145 | $690 | -39.7% |
| gt:robinhood −$71 (9b) · gt:solana −$384 (36b) |
| 07-27 00–04h | 61 | $1,552 | $1,222 | -21.3% |
| gt:robinhood −$24 (17b) · gt:solana −$306 (44b) |
| total | 304 | $7,735 | $6,209 | -19.7% |
DAY-HOLD — non-pump venues; no exit — the bound the day exits must beat
-28.9%
304 bets · $7,735 deployed · $5,499 portfolio value · 38 big winners · top-1 2%
| block (UTC) | bets | in | value | ROI |
|---|
| 07-26 04–08h | 42 | $1,069 | $895 | -16.3% |
| gt:robinhood +$91 (3b) · gt:solana −$265 (39b) |
| 07-26 08–12h | 49 | $1,247 | $1,045 | -16.2% |
| gt:robinhood −$106 (6b) · gt:solana −$96 (43b) |
| 07-26 12–16h | 57 | $1,450 | $1,117 | -23.0% |
| gt:robinhood −$75 (16b) · gt:solana −$237 (40b) · pons −$21 (1b) |
| 07-26 16–20h | 50 | $1,272 | $739 | -41.9% |
| gt:robinhood −$122 (15b) · gt:solana −$396 (34b) · pons −$15 (1b) |
| 07-26 20–24h | 45 | $1,145 | $539 | -53.0% |
| gt:robinhood −$117 (9b) · gt:solana −$490 (36b) |
| 07-27 00–04h | 61 | $1,552 | $1,165 | -24.9% |
| gt:robinhood −$22 (17b) · gt:solana −$365 (44b) |
| total | 304 | $7,735 | $5,499 | -28.9% |
Two strategies, separated because they were always different games. MONSTER-HOLD: $2 lottery tickets on every pump.fun graduation with ≥$5k of sane pool depth, never sold — the tail thesis (monsters take 19–140 days), measured in weeks not hours. DAY-*: $25 positions on every non-pump graduation with ≥$50k of sane depth — fast-settling pool trades where the exit rule is the open question, so −50% / −25% trails race the never-sell bound. All entries pay constant-product impact; meteora is cut on both books; ruggers and serial-dud creators cut. The grey sub-line under each 4h block splits that block's net by mint source.
Filter scoreboard — ranked by bets per kept big winner
| filter | decides | bets | rug% |
wins kept | keep | bets/win | best | EV |
|---|
| grad_grind24thin | at_mig24 | 7 | 0.0% | 4 | 6% | 2 | 1x | $0.662 |
| grind_24hthin | at_24h | 12 | 0.0% | 3 | 4% | 4 | 1x | $0.723 |
| relaunch_of_win | at_mint | 326 | 0.3% | 69 | 24% | 5 | 15x | $0.398 |
| grad_first | at_migration | 586 | 0.2% | 104 | 37% | 6 | 72x | $0.639 |
| uri_recycled | at_mint | 1,201 | 0.0% | 70 | 25% | 17 | 15x | $0.140 |
| grad_proven | at_migration | 504 | 1.8% | 29 | 10% | 17 | 79x | $0.822 |
| buy_pressure5 | at_5m | 2,335 | 6.5% | 127 | 45% | 18 | 44x | $0.340 |
| green5 | at_5m | 1,125 | 0.2% | 50 | 18% | 22 | 39x | $0.406 |
| grad_confirm5ONE-TOKEN | at_mig5 | 6,541 | 9.3% | 269 | 95% | 24 | 946,861,039,266,400,128x | $1.070 |
| grad_fast30ONE-TOKEN | at_migration | 6,502 | 9.3% | 267 | 94% | 24 | 946,861,039,266,400,128x | $1.037 |
| vol5_gt1k | at_5m | 6,247 | 8.8% | 256 | 90% | 24 | 1,793,071x | $0.379 |
| grad_entryONE-TOKEN | at_migration | 6,710 | 9.1% | 272 | 96% | 25 | 946,861,039,266,400,128x | $1.035 |
| grad_oracleORACLE | ORACLE | 6,715 | 9.1% | 272 | 96% | 25 | 946,861,039,266,400,128x | $1.187 |
| buyers5_gt10 | at_5m | 7,726 | 7.8% | 263 | 93% | 29 | 1,793,071x | $0.365 |
| baseline | at_mint | 53,521 | 1.3% | 284 | 100% | 188 | 946,861,039,266,400,128x | $0.270 |
A filter earns its place by cutting bets faster than it cuts
winners — "keep" is the share of the cohort's 284 big winners it retained; a filter that
boosts EV but drops the monsters is a trap. Green EV clears the cost line ($2.21 at the $2 reference stake — race stakes differ per venue).
ORACLE = needs future knowledge, ceiling only. ONE-TOKEN = result rides on a single coin.
Winners study — what the $200k+ class looked like at launch
winners crawled
425
crawl 42h old
first-ever launches
86%
rotation-blind — see note
median mint→ATH
6d
48% took >7 days
| ATH tier | n | median days to ATH | first-launch creators |
|---|
| $200k–1M | 105 | 19d | 75% |
| $1M–10M | 98 | 70d | 83% |
| >$10M | 73 | 140d | 79% |
One-shot crawl of pump.fun's listing, survivor-biased by
design (listed by CURRENT mcap, so collapsed winners are invisible). ATHs are pump-tracker prints
with no realizability leg — wash-printable, and one confirmed $60M farm print is in the set.
"First-launch" cannot see wallet rotation (URI-lineage lower bound: 2 of 365 rotated).
The duration findings are robust to both: monsters grind for weeks, they do not spike.
Staged entries — pyramid tickets into coins that keep proving themselves
| plan | bets | deployed | returned | ROI | winners held |
|---|
Instead of one ticket at mint, tickets are added as a coin
passes survival gates: graduation, then still-grinding a day later (≥$60k, within 50% of its high,
live quote), then again at day 3. Winners grind for weeks — persistence is the signal. Gate tranches
activate once coins age past each gate; each tranche settles at its own entry price.
Predictions
None yet — deliberately.
Predictions start publishing here when a filter stack clears
the cost line over a multi-week window with a sample no single coin dominates. Current best honest
candidate: buy at graduation — keeps ~93% of big winners in ~3% of the bets and sits above
cost — with cheap pre-screens (early-buyer count) that so far cut over half the bets while keeping
every winner. Until then this page reports measurements, not tips.