Meme-coin lottery — forward testPAPER ONLY

Strategy under test: many small bets, paid for by the rare monster. A win rate as low as 1% is fine — at $2.21 a bet, one true 1000x ($2.1M market cap from a ~$2.1k launch) returns roughly $1,900 before depth caps and carries ~859 losers on its back. Stakes: pump $2, every other venue $25; every entry pays constant-product impact against its entry pool. Everything below is measured through that lens: keep the future monsters in the net, cut everything else. No real money. Updated 2026-07-26 16:57 UTC · auto-refreshes every 5 min.
mint firehose: ok · 12s ago price marks: ok · 1s ago holder snapshots: ok · 3s ago

Collection — 32.9 hours of continuous capture

mints tracked
39,025
30,272 in 24h
graduations
1,584
1,258 in 24h

Race totals — today (UTC)

MONSTER-HOLD
-79.7%
$482 in · portfolio $98 · 218 bets
pump −$384
DAY-T50
-4.6%
$4,045 in → $3,859 out · 159 bets
gt:robinhood −$47 · gt:solana −$130 · pons −$9
DAY-T25
-2.9%
$4,045 in → $3,929 out · 159 bets
gt:robinhood −$20 · gt:solana −$87 · pons −$9
DAY-HOLD
-6.8%
$4,045 in · portfolio $3,769 · 159 bets
gt:robinhood −$22 · gt:solana −$246 · pons −$9

Race totals — cumulative per book

MONSTER-HOLD
-85.1%
$1,046 in · portfolio $156 · 473 bets
DAY-T50
-4.6%
$4,045 in → $3,859 out · 159 bets
DAY-T25
-2.9%
$4,045 in → $3,929 out · 159 bets
DAY-HOLD
-6.8%
$4,045 in · portfolio $3,769 · 159 bets

Entry drift — could we fill at our quoted entries?

graduation entries measured
3,581
median next-quote drift
+0.0%
p25 +0.0% · p75 +6.3%
moved >10% against us
22%
median quote gap 872s
Drift between our entry quote and the next quote — the realistic band a ~1-minute-latency fill lands in. Price impact at $2 size is negligible (~0.003% into a $60k pool); timing volatility is the whole story. We hold rather than snipe, so entry drift mostly shifts the base, not the thesis.

Race totals — by mint source

sourceMONSTER-HOLDDAY-T50DAY-T25DAY-HOLD
gt:robinhood-7% ($-47)-3% ($-20)-3% ($-22)
gt:solana-4% ($-130)-3% ($-87)-7% ($-246)
pons-36% ($-9)-36% ($-9)-36% ($-9)
pump-85% ($-890)
Each cell: ROI (net $) for that book's tranches on coins from that source. gt:* rows are pool-birth entries from the GeckoTerminal catcher.

Strategy race — two books, same store, settled identically

MONSTER-HOLD — pump graduations, $2 lottery tickets; never sold — depth-capped mark-to-market
-85.1%
473 bets · $1,046 deployed · $156 portfolio value · 110 big winners · top-1 10%
block (UTC)betsinvalueROI
07-25 08–12h30$66$3-96.0%
pump −$64 (30b)
07-25 12–16h88$195$7-96.6%
pump −$188 (88b)
07-25 16–20h77$170$25-85.5%
pump −$146 (77b)
07-25 20–24h60$133$25-81.5%
pump −$108 (60b)
07-26 00–04h57$126$7-94.2%
pump −$119 (57b)
07-26 04–08h49$108$4-96.6%
pump −$105 (49b)
07-26 08–12h53$117$10-91.3%
pump −$107 (53b)
07-26 12–16h50$111$65-41.6%
pump −$46 (50b)
07-26 16–20h9$20$12-39.5%
pump −$8 (9b)
total473$1,046$156-85.1%
DAY-T50 — non-pump venues; -50% trailing stop
-4.6%
159 bets · $4,045 deployed · $3,859 back · 23 big winners · top-1 3%
block (UTC)betsinoutROI
07-26 04–08h42$1,069$881-17.5%
gt:robinhood +$62 (3b) · gt:solana −$249 (39b)
07-26 08–12h49$1,247$1,148-7.9%
gt:robinhood −$104 (6b) · gt:solana +$5 (43b)
07-26 12–16h57$1,450$1,514+4.4%
gt:robinhood −$3 (16b) · gt:solana +$75 (40b) · pons −$9 (1b)
07-26 16–20h11$280$316+12.9%
gt:robinhood −$2 (3b) · gt:solana +$38 (8b)
total159$4,045$3,859-4.6%
DAY-T25 — non-pump venues; -25% trailing stop
-2.9%
159 bets · $4,045 deployed · $3,929 back · 23 big winners · top-1 3%
block (UTC)betsinoutROI
07-26 04–08h42$1,069$928-13.1%
gt:robinhood +$66 (3b) · gt:solana −$206 (39b)
07-26 08–12h49$1,247$1,171-6.1%
gt:robinhood −$81 (6b) · gt:solana +$5 (43b)
07-26 12–16h57$1,450$1,514+4.4%
gt:robinhood −$3 (16b) · gt:solana +$75 (40b) · pons −$9 (1b)
07-26 16–20h11$280$316+12.9%
gt:robinhood −$2 (3b) · gt:solana +$38 (8b)
total159$4,045$3,929-2.9%
DAY-HOLD — non-pump venues; no exit — the bound the day exits must beat
-6.8%
159 bets · $4,045 deployed · $3,769 portfolio value · 23 big winners · top-1 3%
block (UTC)betsinvalueROI
07-26 04–08h42$1,069$894-16.4%
gt:robinhood +$90 (3b) · gt:solana −$265 (39b)
07-26 08–12h49$1,247$1,076-13.7%
gt:robinhood −$104 (6b) · gt:solana −$67 (43b)
07-26 12–16h57$1,450$1,484+2.3%
gt:robinhood −$6 (16b) · gt:solana +$49 (40b) · pons −$9 (1b)
07-26 16–20h11$280$315+12.5%
gt:robinhood −$2 (3b) · gt:solana +$37 (8b)
total159$4,045$3,769-6.8%
Two strategies, separated because they were always different games. MONSTER-HOLD: $2 lottery tickets on every pump.fun graduation with ≥$5k of sane pool depth, never sold — the tail thesis (monsters take 19–140 days), measured in weeks not hours. DAY-*: $25 positions on every non-pump graduation with ≥$50k of sane depth — fast-settling pool trades where the exit rule is the open question, so −50% / −25% trails race the never-sell bound. All entries pay constant-product impact; meteora is cut on both books; ruggers and serial-dud creators cut. The grey sub-line under each 4h block splits that block's net by mint source.

Filter scoreboard — ranked by bets per kept big winner

filterdecidesbetsrug% wins keptkeepbets/winbestEV
grad_grind24ONE-TOKENthinat_mig2420.0%114%21x$0.709
grind_24hthinat_24h40.0%13%41x$0.691
relaunch_of_winat_mint2160.5%5426%415x$0.433
grad_firstat_migration4160.2%8339%572x$0.685
grad_provenat_migration3661.6%2512%1579x$0.804
uri_recycledat_mint9370.0%5426%1715x$0.135
grad_confirm5at_mig53,49210.0%20096%17476,433x$0.562
grad_fast30at_migration3,51010.0%20095%18476,433x$0.531
grad_entryat_migration3,6609.6%20396%18476,433x$0.542
grad_oracleORACLEORACLE3,6619.6%20396%18476,433x$0.733
buy_pressure5at_5m2,0666.0%10047%2140x$0.316
green5at_5m1,1250.2%5024%2239x$0.407
vol5_gt1kat_5m5,5256.0%19291%2914,677x$0.333
buyers5_gt10at_5m6,9525.4%19793%3514,677x$0.324
baselineat_mint33,8861.2%211100%161476,433x$0.179
A filter earns its place by cutting bets faster than it cuts winners — "keep" is the share of the cohort's 211 big winners it retained; a filter that boosts EV but drops the monsters is a trap. Green EV clears the cost line ($2.21 at the $2 reference stake — race stakes differ per venue). ORACLE = needs future knowledge, ceiling only. ONE-TOKEN = result rides on a single coin.

Winners study — what the $200k+ class looked like at launch

winners crawled
425
crawl 30h old
first-ever launches
86%
rotation-blind — see note
graduated
55%
median mint→ATH
6d
48% took >7 days
ATH tiernmedian days to ATHfirst-launch creators
$200k–1M10519d75%
$1M–10M9870d83%
>$10M73140d79%
One-shot crawl of pump.fun's listing, survivor-biased by design (listed by CURRENT mcap, so collapsed winners are invisible). ATHs are pump-tracker prints with no realizability leg — wash-printable, and one confirmed $60M farm print is in the set. "First-launch" cannot see wallet rotation (URI-lineage lower bound: 2 of 365 rotated). The duration findings are robust to both: monsters grind for weeks, they do not spike.

Staged entries — pyramid tickets into coins that keep proving themselves

planbetsdeployedreturnedROIwinners held
Instead of one ticket at mint, tickets are added as a coin passes survival gates: graduation, then still-grinding a day later (≥$60k, within 50% of its high, live quote), then again at day 3. Winners grind for weeks — persistence is the signal. Gate tranches activate once coins age past each gate; each tranche settles at its own entry price.

Predictions

None yet — deliberately.
Predictions start publishing here when a filter stack clears the cost line over a multi-week window with a sample no single coin dominates. Current best honest candidate: buy at graduation — keeps ~93% of big winners in ~3% of the bets and sits above cost — with cheap pre-screens (early-buyer count) that so far cut over half the bets while keeping every winner. Until then this page reports measurements, not tips.