Meme-coin lottery — forward testPAPER ONLY
Strategy under test: many tiny bets, paid for by the rare monster.
A win rate as low as 1% is fine — at $2.21 a bet, one true 1000x
($2.1M market cap from a ~$2.1k launch) returns roughly
$1,900 and carries ~860 losers on its back. Everything below is measured through that lens:
keep the future monsters in the net, cut everything else.
No real money. Updated 2026-07-25 23:46 UTC · auto-refreshes every 5 min.
mint firehose: ok · 19s ago
price marks: ok · 0s ago
holder snapshots: ok · 0s ago
Collection — 15.8 hours of continuous capture
mints tracked
17,409
17,409 in 24h
priced (paper entries)
14,829
holder snapshots
14,822
1–9 min after mint
witnessed rugs
35
≥$30k → drained = $0 return
blacklisted wallets
155
grows only, never forgives
Economics — does the tail pay for the body?
cost per $2 bet
$2.21
stake + 1% fee + priority + rent
big winners in cohort
137
true ATH ≥ $210k (~100x)
bets per big win
108
unfiltered — the number filters must shrink
basket EV per bet
$0.160
sell-at-30%-of-peak, rugs = $0
edge
-92.8%
must reach 0% to go live
breakeven 1000x rate
1 in ~860
what the math demands
best multiple seen
42,085x
true ATH vs paper entry
Peak multiples — 14,829 priced launches (true ATHs)
Filter scoreboard — ranked by bets per kept big winner
| filter | decides | bets | rug% |
wins kept | keep | bets/win | best | EV |
|---|
| relaunch_of_winthin | at_mint | 89 | 1.1% | 70 | 51% | 1 | 15x | $0.433 |
| grad_first | at_migration | 135 | 0.0% | 76 | 55% | 2 | 257x | $2.280 |
| grad_fast30 | at_migration | 426 | 1.2% | 134 | 98% | 3 | 20,302x | $3.258 |
| grad_entry | at_migration | 499 | 1.0% | 136 | 99% | 4 | 20,302x | $3.088 |
| grad_oracleORACLE | ORACLE | 499 | 1.0% | 136 | 99% | 4 | 5,379x | $2.242 |
| uri_recycled | at_mint | 439 | 0.0% | 74 | 54% | 6 | 15x | $0.158 |
| green5 | at_5m | 1,125 | 0.2% | 95 | 69% | 12 | 80x | $0.528 |
| grad_proven | at_migration | 155 | 1.9% | 13 | 9% | 12 | 1,216x | $3.923 |
| buy_pressure5 | at_5m | 1,335 | 0.0% | 105 | 77% | 13 | 29x | $0.209 |
| cr_true_first | at_mint | 1,699 | 0.3% | 76 | 55% | 22 | 121x | $0.278 |
| holders_top10_gt50 | at_10m | 1,812 | 1.0% | 62 | 45% | 29 | 20,302x | $0.333 |
| vol5_gt1k | at_5m | 3,867 | 0.7% | 128 | 93% | 30 | 27,894x | $0.396 |
| creator_fresh | at_mint | 4,377 | 0.1% | 126 | 92% | 35 | 4,053x | $0.206 |
| grad_slowthin | at_migration | 73 | 0.0% | 2 | 1% | 36 | 1,987x | $2.093 |
| baseline | at_mint | 14,829 | 0.2% | 137 | 100% | 108 | 5,379x | $0.160 |
A filter earns its place by cutting bets faster than it cuts
winners — "keep" is the share of the cohort's 137 big winners it retained; a filter that
boosts EV but drops the monsters is a trap. Green EV clears the cost line ($2.21).
ORACLE = needs future knowledge, ceiling only. ONE-TOKEN = result rides on a single coin.
Strategy race — two books, same store, settled identically
MONSTER — grad + grind tranches; exit -50% trailing stop
+665.5%
429 bets · $947 deployed · $7,252 back · 135 big winners · top-1 81%
| day | bets | cum in | cum out | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-07-25 | 429 | $947 | $7,252 | +665.5% |
MONSTER-T25 — same book; tighter exit: -25% trailing stop
+788.0%
429 bets · $947 deployed · $8,412 back · 135 big winners · top-1 89%
| day | bets | cum in | cum out | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-07-25 | 429 | $947 | $8,412 | +788.0% |
HOURLY-HH — +$2 every hour a new high prints; exit -50% trailing stop
+344.8%
801 bets · $1,769 deployed · $7,867 back · 135 big winners · top-1 74%
| day | bets | cum in | cum out | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-07-25 | 801 | $1,769 | $7,867 | +344.8% |
MONSTER: $2 at graduation, +$2 at +24h/+72h only on higher highs; ruggers and serial-dud creators cut; exit −50% trailing stop, filled at the breaching quote. MONSTER-T25: same book, −25% stop. HOURLY-HH: +$2 every hour that prints a new high (max 48 adds), −50% stop. Open tranches mark to the last quote; daily rows accrue.
Staged entries — pyramid tickets into coins that keep proving themselves
| plan | bets | deployed | returned | ROI | winners held |
|---|
| mint only | 14,829 | $32,745 | $2,373 | -92.8% | 137 |
| graduation only | 499 | $1,102 | $1,541 | +39.8% | 136 |
| grad + grind@24h | 499 | $1,102 | $1,541 | +39.8% | 136 |
| grad + grind@24h+@72h | 499 | $1,102 | $1,541 | +39.8% | 136 |
Instead of one ticket at mint, tickets are added as a coin
passes survival gates: graduation, then still-grinding a day later (≥$60k, within 50% of its high,
live quote), then again at day 3. Winners grind for weeks — persistence is the signal. Gate tranches
activate once coins age past each gate; each tranche settles at its own entry price.
Predictions
None yet — deliberately.
Predictions start publishing here when a filter stack clears
the cost line over a multi-week window with a sample no single coin dominates. Current best honest
candidate: buy at graduation — keeps ~93% of big winners in ~3% of the bets and sits above
cost — with cheap pre-screens (early-buyer count) that so far cut over half the bets while keeping
every winner. Until then this page reports measurements, not tips.