Strategy under test: many small bets, paid for by the rare monster.
A win rate as low as 1% is fine — at $2.25 a bet, one true 1000x
($2.1M market cap from a ~$2.1k launch) returns roughly
$1,900 before depth caps and carries ~859
losers on its back. Stakes: pump $2, every other venue $5; every entry pays constant-product
impact against its entry pool. Everything below is measured through that lens:
keep the future monsters in the net, cut everything else.
No real money. Built 2026-07-27 12:37 UTC.
mint firehose: ok · 15s agoprice marks: ok · -5s agoholder snapshots: ok · -6s ago·
Collection — 2.2 days of continuous capture
mints tracked
74,098
42,822 in 24h
graduations
2,823
1,585 in 24h
Race totals — today (UTC)
MONSTER-HOLD
-40.9%
$194 in · portfolio $114 · 86 bets pump −$79
DAY-1H TOP PICKS
+1.4%
$238 in → $241 out · 45 bets dyorswap-robinhood −$2 · pumpswap +$3 · uniswap-v3-robinhood +$9 · uniswap-v4-robinhood −$7
1H-uniswap-v3-robinhood
+33.3%
$26 in → $35 out · 5 bets uniswap-v3-robinhood +$9
1H-pumpswap
+1.7%
$185 in → $188 out · 35 bets pumpswap +$3
1H-uniswap-v4-robinhood
-32.7%
$21 in → $14 out · 4 bets uniswap-v4-robinhood −$7
1H-dyorswap-robinhood
-30.3%
$5 in → $4 out · 1 bets dyorswap-robinhood −$2
1H-orca
-8.1%
$16 in → $15 out · 3 bets orca −$1
Race totals — cumulative per book
MONSTER-HOLD
-72.7%
$1,591 in · portfolio $434 · 706 bets
DAY-1H TOP PICKS
+1.4%
$238 in → $241 out · 45 bets
1H-uniswap-v3-robinhood
+8.4%
$158 in → $172 out · 30 bets
1H-pumpswap
+20.4%
$343 in → $413 out · 65 bets
1H-uniswap-v4-robinhood
-5.0%
$100 in → $95 out · 19 bets
1H-dyorswap-robinhood
+125.7%
$26 in → $60 out · 5 bets
1H-orca
-8.2%
$53 in → $48 out · 10 bets
Entry drift — could we fill at our quoted entries?
graduation entries measured
8,678
median next-quote drift
+0.0%
p25 +0.0% · p75 +0.0%
moved >10% against us
17%
median quote gap 1175s
Drift between our entry quote and the next quote — the realistic band a ~1-minute-latency fill lands in. Price impact at $2 size is negligible (~0.003% into a $60k pool); timing volatility is the whole story. We hold rather than snipe, so entry drift mostly shifts the base, not the thesis.
Race totals — by mint source
source
MONSTER-HOLD
DAY-1H TOP PICKS
1H-uniswap-v3-robinhood
1H-pumpswap
1H-uniswap-v4-robinhood
1H-dyorswap-robinhood
1H-orca
dyorswap-robinhood
—
-30% ($-2)
—
—
—
+126% ($33)
—
orca
—
—
—
—
—
—
-8% ($-4)
pump
-73% ($-1,157)
—
—
—
—
—
—
pumpswap
—
+2% ($3)
—
+20% ($70)
—
—
—
uniswap-v3-robinhood
—
+33% ($9)
+8% ($13)
—
—
—
—
uniswap-v4-robinhood
—
-33% ($-7)
—
—
-5% ($-5)
—
—
Each cell: ROI (net $) for that book's tranches on coins
from that source. Anonymous pool births (the GeckoTerminal catcher) are listed by their birth AMM — fluxbeam, pumpswap, uniswap-*, orca — where 'pumpswap' means births the WS mint stream missed, distinct from the 'pump' venue.
Fluxbeam cut 2026-07-27 — honeypot. Jupiter round-trip test on live "deep" pools: buy $25 → sell back $0.00 (sell impact 99.99%; one-way token-2022 valves). Prices printed, exits did not exist — its "+29–84%" was unrealizable. The pilot retargeted to pumpswap-birth graduations, which round-trip at ~−0.7% (verified). Sellability is now checked pre-trade on every live buy.
Strategy race — two books, same store, settled identically
MONSTER-HOLD — pump graduations, $2 lottery tickets; never sold — depth-capped mark-to-market
-72.7%
706 bets · $1,591 deployed · $434 portfolio value · 154 big winners · top-1 19%
session (UTC)
bets
in
value
ROI
07-25 EU
71
$160
$4
-97.5%
pump −$156 (71b)
07-25 US
152
$342
$28
-91.9%
pump −$315 (152b)
07-25 ASIA
112
$252
$10
-96.0%
pump −$242 (112b)
07-26 EU
106
$239
$20
-91.7%
pump −$219 (106b)
07-26 US
99
$223
$121
-45.6%
pump −$102 (99b)
07-26 ASIA
80
$180
$137
-24.2%
pump −$44 (80b)
07-27 EU
86
$194
$114
-40.9%
pump −$79 (86b)
total
706
$1,591
$434
-72.7%
DAY-1H TOP PICKS — yesterday's profitable sources only; EU all venues, US robinhood-only; sell everything 1h after entry — the basket book
+1.4%
45 bets · $238 deployed · $241 back · 4 big winners · top-1 6%
1H-uniswap-v3-robinhood — uniswap-v3-robinhood births; sell at 1h
+8.4%
30 bets · $158 deployed · $172 back · 4 big winners · top-1 19%
session (UTC)
bets
in
out
ROI
07-26 EU
8
$42
$39
-8.0%
uniswap-v3-robinhood −$3 (8b)
07-26 US
17
$90
$98
+8.9%
uniswap-v3-robinhood +$8 (17b)
07-27 EU
5
$26
$35
+33.3%
uniswap-v3-robinhood +$9 (5b)
total
30
$158
$172
+8.4%
1H-pumpswap — pumpswap births; sell at 1h
+20.4%
65 bets · $343 deployed · $413 back · 16 big winners · top-1 14%
session (UTC)
bets
in
out
ROI
07-26 EU
30
$158
$225
+42.2%
pumpswap +$67 (30b)
07-27 EU
35
$185
$188
+1.7%
pumpswap +$3 (35b)
total
65
$343
$413
+20.4%
1H-uniswap-v4-robinhood — uniswap-v4-robinhood births; sell at 1h
-5.0%
19 bets · $100 deployed · $95 back · 4 big winners · top-1 10%
session (UTC)
bets
in
out
ROI
07-26 EU
6
$32
$34
+7.8%
uniswap-v4-robinhood +$2 (6b)
07-26 US
9
$48
$47
-1.1%
uniswap-v4-robinhood −$1 (9b)
07-27 EU
4
$21
$14
-32.7%
uniswap-v4-robinhood −$7 (4b)
total
19
$100
$95
-5.0%
1H-dyorswap-robinhood — dyorswap-robinhood births; sell at 1h
+125.7%
5 bets · $26 deployed · $60 back · 1 big winners · top-1 72%
session (UTC)
bets
in
out
ROI
07-26 US
4
$21
$56
+164.7%
dyorswap-robinhood +$35 (4b)
07-27 EU
1
$5
$4
-30.3%
dyorswap-robinhood −$2 (1b)
total
5
$26
$60
+125.7%
1H-orca — orca births; sell at 1h
-8.2%
10 bets · $53 deployed · $48 back · 0 big winners · top-1 10%
session (UTC)
bets
in
out
ROI
07-26 EU
7
$37
$34
-8.2%
orca −$3 (7b)
07-27 EU
3
$16
$15
-8.1%
orca −$1 (3b)
total
10
$53
$48
-8.2%
MONSTER-HOLD, the DAY-1H TOP PICKS basket (each day trades only the sources whose 1H book was profitable the PREVIOUS UTC day — no history, no bet), and one tracking box per non-pump birth source (auto-enrolled at 20+ graduations, ≥5 gate-passing bets) running the sell-at-1h rule. Session policy: EU (06–14 UTC) trades every venue; US (14–22) trades robinhood rails only — the Solana sources lose in US hours (pumpswap −20%) while robinhood held up; ASIA (22–06) trades nowhere. Every excluded combination keeps being logged and graded nightly as a "benched cell", so a policy exclusion can be reversed on evidence. MONSTER-HOLD: $2 lottery tickets on every pump.fun graduation with ≥$5k of sane pool depth, never sold — open positions valued at the depth-capped last quote, drained pools and rugs at zero. The tail thesis in its purest form: monsters take 19–140 days, so this box is judged in weeks. The DAY exit research (timed sells, targets, per-source books) lives in exits.py and can rejoin the race any time. The grey sub-line under each 4h block splits net by mint source.
Filter scoreboard — measured over the traded universe only (1,068 qualifying graduations)
filter
decides
bets
rug%
wins kept
keep
bets/win
best
EV
replies_gt3thin
at_10m
3
0.0%
1
0%
3
1x
$0.717
relaunch_of_win
at_mint
236
0.0%
74
37%
3
15x
$0.414
green5
at_5m
150
0.0%
47
24%
3
39x
$1.375
uri_recycled
at_mint
258
0.0%
76
38%
3
15x
$0.454
grind_24hthin
at_24h
24
33.3%
6
5%
4
5,867x
$0.415
cr_true_first
at_mint
470
0.0%
114
57%
4
121x
$1.141
grad_first
at_migration
470
0.0%
114
57%
4
72x
$0.605
cr_prior_ath100k
at_mint
110
0.0%
25
12%
4
106x
$2.195
vol5_gt1k
at_5m
846
12.6%
188
94%
4
216x
$1.292
buy_pressure5
at_5m
521
10.6%
110
55%
5
32x
$0.713
dev_share_lt2
at_mint
778
19.2%
157
78%
5
216x
$0.934
dev_share_lt5
at_mint
818
18.2%
163
82%
5
216x
$1.037
buyers5_gt10
at_5m
976
14.4%
194
97%
5
216x
$1.303
grad_confirm5
at_mig5
993
15.0%
197
98%
5
106x
$0.843
baseline
at_mint
1,068
14.0%
200
100%
5
216x
$1.503
A filter earns its place by cutting bets faster than it cuts
winners — "keep" is the share of the cohort's 200 big winners it retained; a filter that
boosts EV but drops the monsters is a trap. Green EV clears the cost line ($2.25 at the $2 reference stake — race stakes differ per venue).
ORACLE = needs future knowledge, ceiling only. ONE-TOKEN = result rides on a single coin.
Research loop — nightly re-grade of every exit and signal
Ledger armed, no fills yet. The execution bot records every real fill via ledger.py record; live fill drift vs paper marks appears here from the first buy.
Winners study — what the $200k+ class looked like at launch
winners crawled
425
crawl 50h old
first-ever launches
86%
rotation-blind — see note
graduated
55%
median mint→ATH
6d
48% took >7 days
ATH tier
n
median days to ATH
first-launch creators
$200k–1M
105
19d
75%
$1M–10M
98
70d
83%
>$10M
73
140d
79%
One-shot crawl of pump.fun's listing, survivor-biased by
design (listed by CURRENT mcap, so collapsed winners are invisible). ATHs are pump-tracker prints
with no realizability leg — wash-printable, and one confirmed $60M farm print is in the set.
"First-launch" cannot see wallet rotation (URI-lineage lower bound: 2 of 365 rotated).
The duration findings are robust to both: monsters grind for weeks, they do not spike.
Staged entries — pyramid tickets into coins that keep proving themselves
plan
bets
deployed
returned
ROI
winners held
Instead of one ticket at mint, tickets are added as a coin
passes survival gates: graduation, then still-grinding a day later (≥$60k, within 50% of its high,
live quote), then again at day 3. Winners grind for weeks — persistence is the signal. Gate tranches
activate once coins age past each gate; each tranche settles at its own entry price.
Predictions
None yet — deliberately.
Predictions start publishing here when a strategy clears
its cost line over a multi-week window with a sample no single coin dominates. Status after the
2026-07-26/27 audits: no filter currently clears cost on the honest scoreboard (the early
"graduation entry clears cost" reading was clone-farm wash-print inflation, since guarded away).
The live candidates being measured instead: the MONSTER lottery (needs weeks by construction) and
the fluxbeam 1-hour pop from the exit grid (+69% on 134 bets, one regime — an execution-truth
pilot is planned, not a tip). This page reports measurements, not tips.