Meme-coin lottery — forward testPAPER ONLY
Strategy under test: many small bets, paid for by the rare monster.
A win rate as low as 1% is fine — at $2.21 a bet, one true 1000x
($2.1M market cap from a ~$2.1k launch) returns roughly
$1,900 before depth caps and carries ~859
losers on its back. Stakes: pump $2, every other venue $25; every entry pays constant-product
impact against its entry pool. Everything below is measured through that lens:
keep the future monsters in the net, cut everything else.
No real money. Updated 2026-07-27 06:35 UTC · auto-refreshes every 5 min.
mint firehose: ok · 10s ago
price marks: ok · 1s ago
holder snapshots: ok · 2s ago
Collection — 46.6 hours of continuous capture
mints tracked
64,509
40,007 in 24h
graduations
2,492
1,556 in 24h
Race totals — today (UTC)
MONSTER-HOLD
-18.2%
$131 in · portfolio $107 · 59 bets
pump −$24
DAY-T50
-20.8%
$2,392 in → $1,895 out · 94 bets
gt:robinhood −$18 · gt:solana −$478
DAY-T25
-19.2%
$2,392 in → $1,932 out · 94 bets
gt:robinhood −$24 · gt:solana −$436
DAY-HOLD
-22.7%
$2,392 in · portfolio $1,850 · 94 bets
gt:robinhood −$32 · gt:solana −$510
Race totals — cumulative per book
MONSTER-HOLD
-72.9%
$1,377 in · portfolio $373 · 622 bets
DAY-T50
-25.4%
$8,575 in → $6,400 out · 337 bets
DAY-T25
-21.6%
$8,575 in → $6,727 out · 337 bets
DAY-HOLD
-31.0%
$8,575 in · portfolio $5,915 · 337 bets
Entry drift — could we fill at our quoted entries?
graduation entries measured
7,036
median next-quote drift
+0.0%
p25 +0.0% · p75 +0.0%
moved >10% against us
17%
median quote gap 1248s
Drift between our entry quote and the next quote — the realistic band a ~1-minute-latency fill lands in. Price impact at $2 size is negligible (~0.003% into a $60k pool); timing volatility is the whole story. We hold rather than snipe, so entry drift mostly shifts the base, not the thesis.
Race totals — by mint source
| source | MONSTER-HOLD | DAY-T50 | DAY-T25 | DAY-HOLD |
|---|
| gt:robinhood | — | -19% ($-351) | -11% ($-197) | -22% ($-407) |
| gt:solana | — | -27% ($-1,797) | -24% ($-1,634) | -33% ($-2,212) |
| pons | — | -52% ($-26) | -33% ($-17) | -79% ($-40) |
| pump | -73% ($-1,005) | — | — | — |
Each cell: ROI (net $) for that book's tranches on coins
from that source. gt:* rows are pool-birth entries from the GeckoTerminal catcher.
Strategy race — two books, same store, settled identically
MONSTER-HOLD — pump graduations, $2 lottery tickets; never sold — depth-capped mark-to-market
-72.9%
622 bets · $1,377 deployed · $373 portfolio value · 141 big winners · top-1 32%
| block (UTC) | bets | in | value | ROI |
|---|
| 07-25 08–12h | 30 | $66 | $2 | -96.6% |
| pump −$64 (30b) |
| 07-25 12–16h | 88 | $195 | $6 | -97.1% |
| pump −$189 (88b) |
| 07-25 16–20h | 77 | $170 | $21 | -87.7% |
| pump −$150 (77b) |
| 07-25 20–24h | 60 | $133 | $12 | -90.8% |
| pump −$121 (60b) |
| 07-26 00–04h | 57 | $126 | $6 | -95.5% |
| pump −$121 (57b) |
| 07-26 04–08h | 49 | $108 | $2 | -98.2% |
| pump −$107 (49b) |
| 07-26 08–12h | 53 | $117 | $6 | -95.0% |
| pump −$111 (53b) |
| 07-26 12–16h | 50 | $111 | $51 | -54.2% |
| pump −$60 (50b) |
| 07-26 16–20h | 51 | $113 | $139 | +22.8% |
| pump +$26 (51b) |
| 07-26 20–24h | 48 | $106 | $22 | -79.5% |
| pump −$85 (48b) |
| 07-27 00–04h | 41 | $91 | $44 | -51.1% |
| pump −$46 (41b) |
| 07-27 04–08h | 18 | $40 | $62 | +56.7% |
| pump +$23 (18b) |
| total | 622 | $1,377 | $373 | -72.9% |
DAY-T50 — non-pump venues; -50% trailing stop
-25.4%
337 bets · $8,575 deployed · $6,400 back · 42 big winners · top-1 2%
| block (UTC) | bets | in | out | ROI |
|---|
| 07-26 04–08h | 42 | $1,069 | $906 | -15.2% |
| gt:robinhood +$62 (3b) · gt:solana −$224 (39b) |
| 07-26 08–12h | 49 | $1,247 | $1,113 | -10.7% |
| gt:robinhood −$112 (6b) · gt:solana −$22 (43b) |
| 07-26 12–16h | 57 | $1,450 | $1,224 | -15.6% |
| gt:robinhood −$47 (16b) · gt:solana −$162 (40b) · pons −$18 (1b) |
| 07-26 16–20h | 50 | $1,272 | $806 | -36.6% |
| gt:robinhood −$127 (15b) · gt:solana −$330 (34b) · pons −$8 (1b) |
| 07-26 20–24h | 45 | $1,145 | $455 | -60.2% |
| gt:robinhood −$109 (9b) · gt:solana −$581 (36b) |
| 07-27 00–04h | 61 | $1,552 | $992 | -36.1% |
| gt:robinhood −$78 (17b) · gt:solana −$482 (44b) |
| 07-27 04–08h | 33 | $840 | $904 | +7.6% |
| gt:robinhood +$60 (6b) · gt:solana +$4 (27b) |
| total | 337 | $8,575 | $6,400 | -25.4% |
DAY-T25 — non-pump venues; -25% trailing stop
-21.6%
337 bets · $8,575 deployed · $6,727 back · 42 big winners · top-1 2%
| block (UTC) | bets | in | out | ROI |
|---|
| 07-26 04–08h | 42 | $1,069 | $928 | -13.1% |
| gt:robinhood +$66 (3b) · gt:solana −$206 (39b) |
| 07-26 08–12h | 49 | $1,247 | $1,128 | -9.6% |
| gt:robinhood −$86 (6b) · gt:solana −$33 (43b) |
| 07-26 12–16h | 57 | $1,450 | $1,271 | -12.4% |
| gt:robinhood −$30 (16b) · gt:solana −$140 (40b) · pons −$9 (1b) |
| 07-26 16–20h | 50 | $1,272 | $944 | -25.8% |
| gt:robinhood −$52 (15b) · gt:solana −$269 (34b) · pons −$8 (1b) |
| 07-26 20–24h | 45 | $1,145 | $524 | -54.3% |
| gt:robinhood −$71 (9b) · gt:solana −$550 (36b) |
| 07-27 00–04h | 61 | $1,552 | $1,015 | -34.6% |
| gt:robinhood −$84 (17b) · gt:solana −$453 (44b) |
| 07-27 04–08h | 33 | $840 | $916 | +9.1% |
| gt:robinhood +$60 (6b) · gt:solana +$17 (27b) |
| total | 337 | $8,575 | $6,727 | -21.6% |
DAY-HOLD — non-pump venues; no exit — the bound the day exits must beat
-31.0%
337 bets · $8,575 deployed · $5,915 portfolio value · 42 big winners · top-1 2%
| block (UTC) | bets | in | value | ROI |
|---|
| 07-26 04–08h | 42 | $1,069 | $852 | -20.2% |
| gt:robinhood +$49 (3b) · gt:solana −$265 (39b) |
| 07-26 08–12h | 49 | $1,247 | $1,014 | -18.6% |
| gt:robinhood −$111 (6b) · gt:solana −$122 (43b) |
| 07-26 12–16h | 57 | $1,450 | $1,117 | -23.0% |
| gt:robinhood −$75 (16b) · gt:solana −$237 (40b) · pons −$21 (1b) |
| 07-26 16–20h | 50 | $1,272 | $710 | -44.2% |
| gt:robinhood −$122 (15b) · gt:solana −$420 (34b) · pons −$19 (1b) |
| 07-26 20–24h | 45 | $1,145 | $370 | -67.6% |
| gt:robinhood −$117 (9b) · gt:solana −$658 (36b) |
| 07-27 00–04h | 61 | $1,552 | $946 | -39.0% |
| gt:robinhood −$92 (17b) · gt:solana −$514 (44b) |
| 07-27 04–08h | 33 | $840 | $904 | +7.6% |
| gt:robinhood +$60 (6b) · gt:solana +$4 (27b) |
| total | 337 | $8,575 | $5,915 | -31.0% |
Two strategies, separated because they were always different games. MONSTER-HOLD: $2 lottery tickets on every pump.fun graduation with ≥$5k of sane pool depth, never sold — the tail thesis (monsters take 19–140 days), measured in weeks not hours. DAY-*: $25 positions on every non-pump graduation with ≥$50k of sane depth — fast-settling pool trades where the exit rule is the open question, so −50% / −25% trails race the never-sell bound. All entries pay constant-product impact; meteora is cut on both books; ruggers and serial-dud creators cut. The grey sub-line under each 4h block splits that block's net by mint source.
Filter scoreboard — ranked by bets per kept big winner
| filter | decides | bets | rug% |
wins kept | keep | bets/win | best | EV |
|---|
| grad_grind24thin | at_mig24 | 26 | 34.6% | 6 | 5% | 4 | 1x | $0.239 |
| relaunch_of_win | at_mint | 343 | 0.3% | 70 | 23% | 5 | 15x | $0.401 |
| grad_first | at_migration | 630 | 0.2% | 107 | 36% | 6 | 72x | $0.633 |
| grind_24hthin | at_24h | 30 | 26.7% | 4 | 4% | 8 | 2x | $0.357 |
| uri_recycled | at_mint | 1,241 | 0.0% | 72 | 24% | 17 | 15x | $0.144 |
| grad_proven | at_migration | 539 | 1.9% | 31 | 10% | 17 | 3,108x | $0.996 |
| buy_pressure5 | at_5m | 2,384 | 6.7% | 130 | 43% | 18 | 44x | $0.344 |
| green5 | at_5m | 1,125 | 0.2% | 50 | 17% | 22 | 39x | $0.406 |
| vol5_gt1k | at_5m | 6,361 | 9.1% | 272 | 90% | 23 | 1,793,071x | $0.388 |
| grad_confirm5 | at_mig5 | 7,047 | 9.2% | 286 | 95% | 25 | 946,861,039,266,400,128x | $1.042 |
| grad_fast30ONE-TOKEN | at_migration | 6,994 | 9.2% | 283 | 94% | 25 | 946,861,039,266,400,128x | $1.012 |
| grad_entry | at_migration | 7,217 | 9.0% | 289 | 96% | 25 | 946,861,039,266,400,128x | $1.010 |
| grad_oracleORACLE | ORACLE | 7,218 | 9.0% | 289 | 96% | 25 | 946,861,039,266,400,128x | $1.143 |
| buyers5_gt10 | at_5m | 7,858 | 8.1% | 279 | 93% | 28 | 1,793,071x | $0.372 |
| baseline | at_mint | 56,322 | 1.3% | 301 | 100% | 187 | 946,861,039,266,400,128x | $0.268 |
A filter earns its place by cutting bets faster than it cuts
winners — "keep" is the share of the cohort's 301 big winners it retained; a filter that
boosts EV but drops the monsters is a trap. Green EV clears the cost line ($2.21 at the $2 reference stake — race stakes differ per venue).
ORACLE = needs future knowledge, ceiling only. ONE-TOKEN = result rides on a single coin.
Winners study — what the $200k+ class looked like at launch
winners crawled
425
crawl 44h old
first-ever launches
86%
rotation-blind — see note
median mint→ATH
6d
48% took >7 days
| ATH tier | n | median days to ATH | first-launch creators |
|---|
| $200k–1M | 105 | 19d | 75% |
| $1M–10M | 98 | 70d | 83% |
| >$10M | 73 | 140d | 79% |
One-shot crawl of pump.fun's listing, survivor-biased by
design (listed by CURRENT mcap, so collapsed winners are invisible). ATHs are pump-tracker prints
with no realizability leg — wash-printable, and one confirmed $60M farm print is in the set.
"First-launch" cannot see wallet rotation (URI-lineage lower bound: 2 of 365 rotated).
The duration findings are robust to both: monsters grind for weeks, they do not spike.
Staged entries — pyramid tickets into coins that keep proving themselves
| plan | bets | deployed | returned | ROI | winners held |
|---|
Instead of one ticket at mint, tickets are added as a coin
passes survival gates: graduation, then still-grinding a day later (≥$60k, within 50% of its high,
live quote), then again at day 3. Winners grind for weeks — persistence is the signal. Gate tranches
activate once coins age past each gate; each tranche settles at its own entry price.
Predictions
None yet — deliberately.
Predictions start publishing here when a filter stack clears
the cost line over a multi-week window with a sample no single coin dominates. Current best honest
candidate: buy at graduation — keeps ~93% of big winners in ~3% of the bets and sits above
cost — with cheap pre-screens (early-buyer count) that so far cut over half the bets while keeping
every winner. Until then this page reports measurements, not tips.