Meme-coin lottery — forward testPAPER ONLY

Strategy under test: many tiny bets, paid for by the rare monster. A win rate as low as 1% is fine — at $2.21 a bet, one true 1000x ($2.1M market cap from a ~$2.1k launch) returns roughly $1,900 and carries ~860 losers on its back. Everything below is measured through that lens: keep the future monsters in the net, cut everything else. No real money. Updated 2026-07-25 21:47 UTC · auto-refreshes every 5 min.
mint firehose: ok · 4s ago price marks: ok · 0s ago holder snapshots: ok · 38s ago

Collection — 13.8 hours of continuous capture

mints tracked
15,070
15,070 in 24h
priced (paper entries)
12,854
price marks
343,065
graduations
620
620 in 24h
holder snapshots
12,502
1–9 min after mint
creator résumés
2,577
witnessed rugs
31
≥$30k → drained = $0 return
blacklisted wallets
121
grows only, never forgives

Economics — does the tail pay for the body?

cost per $2 bet
$2.21
stake + 1% fee + priority + rent
big winners in cohort
121
true ATH ≥ $210k (~100x)
bets per big win
106
unfiltered — the number filters must shrink
basket EV per bet
$0.156
sell-at-30%-of-peak, rugs = $0
edge
-92.9%
must reach 0% to go live
breakeven 1000x rate
1 in ~860
what the math demands
best multiple seen
42,085x
true ATH vs paper entry
SOL
$74

Peak multiples — 12,854 priced launches (true ATHs)

≥1x
10,568 · 82.22%
≥2x
3,540 · 27.54%
≥5x
1,464 · 11.39%
≥10x
923 · 7.18%
≥100x
260 · 2.02%
≥1000x
75 · 0.58%

Filter scoreboard — ranked by bets per kept big winner

filterdecidesbetsrug% wins keptkeepbets/winbestEV
relaunch_of_winthinat_mint711.4%5949%115x$0.354
grad_firstONE-TOKENat_migration1130.0%6856%2257x$1.852
grad_fast30at_migration3671.4%11998%320,302x$2.154
grad_entryat_migration4321.2%12099%420,302x$2.137
grad_oracleORACLEORACLE4321.2%12099%44,053x$1.858
uri_recycledat_mint3250.0%6251%515x$0.160
green5at_5m1,1250.2%9579%1280x$0.517
buy_pressure5at_5m1,1650.0%9579%1217x$0.196
grad_provenat_migration1272.4%108%13800x$2.064
cr_true_firstat_mint1,3290.2%6856%20121x$0.302
holders_top10_gt50at_10m1,4611.1%5545%2720,302x$0.249
vol5_gt1kat_5m3,3300.7%11494%2927,894x$0.298
creator_freshat_mint3,8440.2%11293%344,053x$0.212
buyers5_gt10at_5m4,2560.7%12099%3541,069x$0.352
baselineat_mint12,8540.2%121100%1064,053x$0.156
A filter earns its place by cutting bets faster than it cuts winners — "keep" is the share of the cohort's 121 big winners it retained; a filter that boosts EV but drops the monsters is a trap. Green EV clears the cost line ($2.21). ORACLE = needs future knowledge, ceiling only. ONE-TOKEN = result rides on a single coin.

Strategy race — two books, same store, settled identically

MONSTER — grad + grind tranches; exit -50% trailing stop
+745.6%
380 bets · $839 deployed · $7,095 back · 119 big winners · top-1 82%
daybetscum incum outROI
2026-07-25380$839$7,095+745.6%
MONSTER-T25 — same book; tighter exit: -25% trailing stop
+890.3%
380 bets · $839 deployed · $8,309 back · 119 big winners · top-1 90%
daybetscum incum outROI
2026-07-25380$839$8,309+890.3%
HOURLY-HH — +$2 every hour a new high prints; exit -50% trailing stop
+389.2%
705 bets · $1,557 deployed · $7,615 back · 119 big winners · top-1 77%
daybetscum incum outROI
2026-07-25705$1,557$7,615+389.2%
MONSTER: $2 at graduation, +$2 at +24h/+72h only on higher highs; ruggers and serial-dud creators cut; exit −50% trailing stop, filled at the breaching quote. MONSTER-T25: same book, −25% stop. HOURLY-HH: +$2 every hour that prints a new high (max 48 adds), −50% stop. Open tranches mark to the last quote; daily rows accrue.

Staged entries — pyramid tickets into coins that keep proving themselves

planbetsdeployedreturnedROIwinners held
mint only12,854$28,384$2,009-92.9%121
graduation only432$954$923-3.2%120
grad + grind@24h432$954$923-3.2%120
grad + grind@24h+@72h432$954$923-3.2%120
Instead of one ticket at mint, tickets are added as a coin passes survival gates: graduation, then still-grinding a day later (≥$60k, within 50% of its high, live quote), then again at day 3. Winners grind for weeks — persistence is the signal. Gate tranches activate once coins age past each gate; each tranche settles at its own entry price.

Predictions

None yet — deliberately.
Predictions start publishing here when a filter stack clears the cost line over a multi-week window with a sample no single coin dominates. Current best honest candidate: buy at graduation — keeps ~93% of big winners in ~3% of the bets and sits above cost — with cheap pre-screens (early-buyer count) that so far cut over half the bets while keeping every winner. Until then this page reports measurements, not tips.