Meme-coin lottery — forward testPAPER ONLY
Strategy under test: many tiny bets, paid for by the rare monster.
A win rate as low as 1% is fine — at $2.21 a bet, one true 1000x
($2.1M market cap from a ~$2.1k launch) returns roughly
$1,900 and carries ~860 losers on its back. Everything below is measured through that lens:
keep the future monsters in the net, cut everything else.
No real money. Updated 2026-07-25 19:49 UTC · auto-refreshes every 5 min.
mint firehose: ok · 7s ago
price marks: ok · 0s ago
holder snapshots: ok · 1s ago
Collection — 11.8 hours of continuous capture
mints tracked
12,655
12,655 in 24h
priced (paper entries)
10,878
holder snapshots
9,984
1–9 min after mint
witnessed rugs
23
≥$30k → drained = $0 return
blacklisted wallets
121
grows only, never forgives
Economics — does the tail pay for the body?
cost per $2 bet
$2.21
stake + 1% fee + priority + rent
big winners in cohort
108
true ATH ≥ $210k (~100x)
bets per big win
101
unfiltered — the number filters must shrink
basket EV per bet
$0.185
sell-at-30%-of-peak, rugs = $0
edge
-91.6%
must reach 0% to go live
breakeven 1000x rate
1 in ~860
what the math demands
best multiple seen
9,192x
true ATH vs paper entry
Peak multiples — 10,878 priced launches (true ATHs)
Filter scoreboard — ranked by bets per kept big winner
| filter | decides | bets | rug% |
wins kept | keep | bets/win | best | EV |
|---|
| relaunch_of_winthin | at_mint | 63 | 1.6% | 52 | 48% | 1 | 15x | $0.367 |
| grad_firstONE-TOKEN | at_migration | 111 | 0.0% | 68 | 63% | 2 | 257x | $1.918 |
| grad_fast30 | at_migration | 317 | 1.6% | 106 | 98% | 3 | 2,140x | $4.001 |
| grad_entry | at_migration | 368 | 1.4% | 107 | 99% | 3 | 2,140x | $3.672 |
| grad_oracleORACLE | ORACLE | 369 | 1.4% | 107 | 99% | 3 | 3,913x | $2.399 |
| uri_recycled | at_mint | 252 | 0.0% | 55 | 51% | 5 | 15x | $0.178 |
| buy_pressure5 | at_5m | 911 | 0.0% | 86 | 80% | 11 | 17x | $0.189 |
| green5 | at_5m | 1,108 | 0.2% | 93 | 86% | 12 | 80x | $0.510 |
| grad_proven | at_migration | 113 | 2.7% | 8 | 7% | 14 | 544x | $3.694 |
| cr_true_first | at_mint | 1,325 | 0.2% | 68 | 63% | 19 | 121x | $0.303 |
| holders_top10_gt50ONE-TOKEN | at_10m | 1,153 | 1.0% | 49 | 45% | 24 | 2,140x | $0.621 |
| vol5_gt1k | at_5m | 2,611 | 0.5% | 100 | 93% | 26 | 18,957x | $0.511 |
| buyers5_gt10 | at_5m | 3,334 | 0.6% | 106 | 98% | 31 | 41,069x | $0.529 |
| creator_fresh | at_mint | 3,210 | 0.1% | 102 | 94% | 31 | 3,913x | $0.279 |
| baseline | at_mint | 10,878 | 0.2% | 108 | 100% | 101 | 3,913x | $0.185 |
A filter earns its place by cutting bets faster than it cuts
winners — "keep" is the share of the cohort's 108 big winners it retained; a filter that
boosts EV but drops the monsters is a trap. Green EV clears the cost line ($2.21).
ORACLE = needs future knowledge, ceiling only. ONE-TOKEN = result rides on a single coin.
Strategy race — two books, same store, settled identically
MONSTER — grad + grind tranches; exit -50% trailing stop
+654.4%
325 bets · $718 deployed · $5,414 back · 106 big winners · top-1 78%
| day | bets | cum in | cum out | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-07-25 | 325 | $718 | $5,414 | +654.4% |
MONSTER-T25 — same book; tighter exit: -25% trailing stop
+591.1%
325 bets · $718 deployed · $4,959 back · 106 big winners · top-1 85%
| day | bets | cum in | cum out | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-07-25 | 325 | $718 | $4,959 | +591.1% |
HOURLY-HH — +$2 every hour a new high prints; exit -50% trailing stop
+349.0%
591 bets · $1,305 deployed · $5,860 back · 106 big winners · top-1 72%
| day | bets | cum in | cum out | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-07-25 | 591 | $1,305 | $5,860 | +349.0% |
MONSTER: $2 at graduation, +$2 at +24h/+72h only on higher highs; ruggers and serial-dud creators cut; exit −50% trailing stop, filled at the breaching quote. MONSTER-T25: same book, −25% stop. HOURLY-HH: +$2 every hour that prints a new high (max 48 adds), −50% stop. Open tranches mark to the last quote; daily rows accrue.
Staged entries — pyramid tickets into coins that keep proving themselves
| plan | bets | deployed | returned | ROI | winners held |
|---|
| mint only | 10,878 | $24,020 | $2,010 | -91.6% | 108 |
| graduation only | 368 | $813 | $1,351 | +66.3% | 107 |
| grad + grind@24h | 368 | $813 | $1,351 | +66.3% | 107 |
| grad + grind@24h+@72h | 368 | $813 | $1,351 | +66.3% | 107 |
Instead of one ticket at mint, tickets are added as a coin
passes survival gates: graduation, then still-grinding a day later (≥$60k, within 50% of its high,
live quote), then again at day 3. Winners grind for weeks — persistence is the signal. Gate tranches
activate once coins age past each gate; each tranche settles at its own entry price.
Predictions
None yet — deliberately.
Predictions start publishing here when a filter stack clears
the cost line over a multi-week window with a sample no single coin dominates. Current best honest
candidate: buy at graduation — keeps ~93% of big winners in ~3% of the bets and sits above
cost — with cheap pre-screens (early-buyer count) that so far cut over half the bets while keeping
every winner. Until then this page reports measurements, not tips.