Meme-coin lottery — forward testPAPER ONLY
Strategy under test: many tiny bets, paid for by the rare monster.
A win rate as low as 1% is fine — at $2.21 a bet, one true 1000x
($2.1M market cap from a ~$2.1k launch) returns roughly
$1,900 and carries ~860 losers on its back. Everything below is measured through that lens:
keep the future monsters in the net, cut everything else.
No real money. Updated 2026-07-25 21:47 UTC · auto-refreshes every 5 min.
mint firehose: ok · 4s ago
price marks: ok · 0s ago
holder snapshots: ok · 38s ago
Collection — 13.8 hours of continuous capture
mints tracked
15,070
15,070 in 24h
priced (paper entries)
12,854
holder snapshots
12,502
1–9 min after mint
witnessed rugs
31
≥$30k → drained = $0 return
blacklisted wallets
121
grows only, never forgives
Economics — does the tail pay for the body?
cost per $2 bet
$2.21
stake + 1% fee + priority + rent
big winners in cohort
121
true ATH ≥ $210k (~100x)
bets per big win
106
unfiltered — the number filters must shrink
basket EV per bet
$0.156
sell-at-30%-of-peak, rugs = $0
edge
-92.9%
must reach 0% to go live
breakeven 1000x rate
1 in ~860
what the math demands
best multiple seen
42,085x
true ATH vs paper entry
Peak multiples — 12,854 priced launches (true ATHs)
Filter scoreboard — ranked by bets per kept big winner
| filter | decides | bets | rug% |
wins kept | keep | bets/win | best | EV |
|---|
| relaunch_of_winthin | at_mint | 71 | 1.4% | 59 | 49% | 1 | 15x | $0.354 |
| grad_firstONE-TOKEN | at_migration | 113 | 0.0% | 68 | 56% | 2 | 257x | $1.852 |
| grad_fast30 | at_migration | 367 | 1.4% | 119 | 98% | 3 | 20,302x | $2.154 |
| grad_entry | at_migration | 432 | 1.2% | 120 | 99% | 4 | 20,302x | $2.137 |
| grad_oracleORACLE | ORACLE | 432 | 1.2% | 120 | 99% | 4 | 4,053x | $1.858 |
| uri_recycled | at_mint | 325 | 0.0% | 62 | 51% | 5 | 15x | $0.160 |
| green5 | at_5m | 1,125 | 0.2% | 95 | 79% | 12 | 80x | $0.517 |
| buy_pressure5 | at_5m | 1,165 | 0.0% | 95 | 79% | 12 | 17x | $0.196 |
| grad_proven | at_migration | 127 | 2.4% | 10 | 8% | 13 | 800x | $2.064 |
| cr_true_first | at_mint | 1,329 | 0.2% | 68 | 56% | 20 | 121x | $0.302 |
| holders_top10_gt50 | at_10m | 1,461 | 1.1% | 55 | 45% | 27 | 20,302x | $0.249 |
| vol5_gt1k | at_5m | 3,330 | 0.7% | 114 | 94% | 29 | 27,894x | $0.298 |
| creator_fresh | at_mint | 3,844 | 0.2% | 112 | 93% | 34 | 4,053x | $0.212 |
| buyers5_gt10 | at_5m | 4,256 | 0.7% | 120 | 99% | 35 | 41,069x | $0.352 |
| baseline | at_mint | 12,854 | 0.2% | 121 | 100% | 106 | 4,053x | $0.156 |
A filter earns its place by cutting bets faster than it cuts
winners — "keep" is the share of the cohort's 121 big winners it retained; a filter that
boosts EV but drops the monsters is a trap. Green EV clears the cost line ($2.21).
ORACLE = needs future knowledge, ceiling only. ONE-TOKEN = result rides on a single coin.
Strategy race — two books, same store, settled identically
MONSTER — grad + grind tranches; exit -50% trailing stop
+745.6%
380 bets · $839 deployed · $7,095 back · 119 big winners · top-1 82%
| day | bets | cum in | cum out | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-07-25 | 380 | $839 | $7,095 | +745.6% |
MONSTER-T25 — same book; tighter exit: -25% trailing stop
+890.3%
380 bets · $839 deployed · $8,309 back · 119 big winners · top-1 90%
| day | bets | cum in | cum out | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-07-25 | 380 | $839 | $8,309 | +890.3% |
HOURLY-HH — +$2 every hour a new high prints; exit -50% trailing stop
+389.2%
705 bets · $1,557 deployed · $7,615 back · 119 big winners · top-1 77%
| day | bets | cum in | cum out | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-07-25 | 705 | $1,557 | $7,615 | +389.2% |
MONSTER: $2 at graduation, +$2 at +24h/+72h only on higher highs; ruggers and serial-dud creators cut; exit −50% trailing stop, filled at the breaching quote. MONSTER-T25: same book, −25% stop. HOURLY-HH: +$2 every hour that prints a new high (max 48 adds), −50% stop. Open tranches mark to the last quote; daily rows accrue.
Staged entries — pyramid tickets into coins that keep proving themselves
| plan | bets | deployed | returned | ROI | winners held |
|---|
| mint only | 12,854 | $28,384 | $2,009 | -92.9% | 121 |
| graduation only | 432 | $954 | $923 | -3.2% | 120 |
| grad + grind@24h | 432 | $954 | $923 | -3.2% | 120 |
| grad + grind@24h+@72h | 432 | $954 | $923 | -3.2% | 120 |
Instead of one ticket at mint, tickets are added as a coin
passes survival gates: graduation, then still-grinding a day later (≥$60k, within 50% of its high,
live quote), then again at day 3. Winners grind for weeks — persistence is the signal. Gate tranches
activate once coins age past each gate; each tranche settles at its own entry price.
Predictions
None yet — deliberately.
Predictions start publishing here when a filter stack clears
the cost line over a multi-week window with a sample no single coin dominates. Current best honest
candidate: buy at graduation — keeps ~93% of big winners in ~3% of the bets and sits above
cost — with cheap pre-screens (early-buyer count) that so far cut over half the bets while keeping
every winner. Until then this page reports measurements, not tips.