Meme-coin lottery — forward testPAPER ONLY
Strategy under test: many small bets, paid for by the rare monster.
A win rate as low as 1% is fine — at $101.19 a bet, one true 1000x
($2.1M market cap from a ~$2.1k launch) returns roughly
$95,000 before depth caps and carries ~938
losers on its back. Stakes are $100/tranche and every entry pays constant-product
impact against its entry pool. Everything below is measured through that lens:
keep the future monsters in the net, cut everything else.
No real money. Updated 2026-07-26 11:56 UTC · auto-refreshes every 5 min.
mint firehose: ok · 1s ago
price marks: ok · 1s ago
holder snapshots: ok · 0s ago
Collection — 27.9 hours of continuous capture
mints tracked
30,405
27,207 in 24h
graduations
1,208
1,093 in 24h
Race totals — today (UTC)
MONSTER-HOLD
-64.2%
$345 in · portfolio $123 · 156 bets
pump −$221
DAY-T50
+21.1%
$2,213 in → $2,680 out · 87 bets
gt:robinhood +$129 · gt:solana +$339
DAY-T25
+24.2%
$2,213 in → $2,748 out · 87 bets
gt:robinhood +$153 · gt:solana +$382
DAY-HOLD
+19.4%
$2,213 in · portfolio $2,642 · 87 bets
gt:robinhood +$142 · gt:solana +$287
Race totals — cumulative per book
MONSTER-HOLD
-78.2%
$909 in · portfolio $198 · 411 bets
DAY-T50
+21.1%
$2,213 in → $2,680 out · 87 bets
DAY-T25
+24.2%
$2,213 in → $2,748 out · 87 bets
DAY-HOLD
+19.4%
$2,213 in · portfolio $2,642 · 87 bets
Entry drift — could we fill at our quoted entries?
graduation entries measured
2,200
median next-quote drift
+0.0%
p25 +0.0% · p75 +9.5%
moved >10% against us
25%
median quote gap 717s
Drift between our entry quote and the next quote — the realistic band a ~1-minute-latency fill lands in. Price impact at $2 size is negligible (~0.003% into a $60k pool); timing volatility is the whole story. We hold rather than snipe, so entry drift mostly shifts the base, not the thesis.
Race totals — by mint source
| source | MONSTER-HOLD | DAY-T50 | DAY-T25 | DAY-HOLD |
|---|
| gt:robinhood | — | +63% ($129) | +75% ($153) | +70% ($142) |
| gt:solana | — | +17% ($339) | +19% ($382) | +14% ($287) |
| pump | -78% ($-710) | — | — | — |
Each cell: ROI (net $) for that book's tranches on coins
from that source. gt:* rows are pool-birth entries from the GeckoTerminal catcher.
Strategy race — two books, same store, settled identically
MONSTER-HOLD — pump graduations, $2 lottery tickets; never sold — depth-capped mark-to-market
-78.2%
411 bets · $909 deployed · $198 portfolio value · 97 big winners · top-1 7%
| block (UTC) | bets | in | value | ROI |
|---|
| 07-25 08–12h | 30 | $66 | $3 | -96.0% |
| pump −$64 (30b) |
| 07-25 12–16h | 88 | $195 | $9 | -95.2% |
| pump −$185 (88b) |
| 07-25 16–20h | 77 | $170 | $36 | -79.0% |
| pump −$135 (77b) |
| 07-25 20–24h | 60 | $133 | $27 | -79.5% |
| pump −$105 (60b) |
| 07-26 00–04h | 57 | $126 | $24 | -81.2% |
| pump −$102 (57b) |
| 07-26 04–08h | 49 | $108 | $29 | -73.6% |
| pump −$80 (49b) |
| 07-26 08–12h | 50 | $111 | $71 | -35.6% |
| pump −$39 (50b) |
| total | 411 | $909 | $198 | -78.2% |
DAY-T50 — non-pump venues; -50% trailing stop
+21.1%
87 bets · $2,213 deployed · $2,680 back · 13 big winners · top-1 9%
| block (UTC) | bets | in | out | ROI |
|---|
| 07-26 04–08h | 42 | $1,069 | $1,205 | +12.8% |
| gt:robinhood +$62 (3b) · gt:solana +$75 (39b) |
| 07-26 08–12h | 45 | $1,145 | $1,475 | +28.9% |
| gt:robinhood +$67 (5b) · gt:solana +$263 (40b) |
| total | 87 | $2,213 | $2,680 | +21.1% |
DAY-T25 — non-pump venues; -25% trailing stop
+24.2%
87 bets · $2,213 deployed · $2,748 back · 13 big winners · top-1 8%
| block (UTC) | bets | in | out | ROI |
|---|
| 07-26 04–08h | 42 | $1,069 | $1,252 | +17.2% |
| gt:robinhood +$66 (3b) · gt:solana +$118 (39b) |
| 07-26 08–12h | 45 | $1,145 | $1,496 | +30.7% |
| gt:robinhood +$88 (5b) · gt:solana +$263 (40b) |
| total | 87 | $2,213 | $2,748 | +24.2% |
DAY-HOLD — non-pump venues; no exit — the bound the day exits must beat
+19.4%
87 bets · $2,213 deployed · $2,642 portfolio value · 13 big winners · top-1 9%
| block (UTC) | bets | in | value | ROI |
|---|
| 07-26 04–08h | 42 | $1,069 | $1,214 | +13.6% |
| gt:robinhood +$75 (3b) · gt:solana +$70 (39b) |
| 07-26 08–12h | 45 | $1,145 | $1,428 | +24.7% |
| gt:robinhood +$67 (5b) · gt:solana +$216 (40b) |
| total | 87 | $2,213 | $2,642 | +19.4% |
Two strategies, separated because they were always different games. MONSTER-HOLD: $2 lottery tickets on every pump.fun graduation with ≥$5k of sane pool depth, never sold — the tail thesis (monsters take 19–140 days), measured in weeks not hours. DAY-*: $25 (gt venues) to $100 positions on every non-pump graduation with ≥$50k of sane depth — fast-settling pool trades where the exit rule is the open question, so −50% / −25% trails race the never-sell bound. All entries pay constant-product impact; meteora is cut on both books; ruggers and serial-dud creators cut. The grey sub-line under each 4h block splits that block's net by mint source.
Filter scoreboard — ranked by bets per kept big winner
| filter | decides | bets | rug% |
wins kept | keep | bets/win | best | EV |
| grad_grind24ONE-TOKENthin | at_mig24 | 1 | 0.0% | 1 | n/a | 1 | 1x | $0.710 |
| grind_24hONE-TOKENthin | at_24h | 2 | 0.0% | 1 | 6% | 2 | 1x | $0.709 |
| relaunch_of_win | at_mint | 179 | 0.6% | 50 | 33% | 4 | 15x | $0.401 |
| grad_first | at_migration | 338 | 0.3% | 70 | 46% | 5 | 72x | $0.745 |
| grad_proven | at_migration | 274 | 2.2% | 19 | 13% | 14 | 79x | $0.866 |
| grad_confirm5 | at_mig5 | 2,092 | 9.4% | 144 | 96% | 15 | 76,887x | $0.641 |
| grad_fast30 | at_migration | 2,133 | 9.2% | 145 | 96% | 15 | 76,887x | $0.636 |
| grad_entry | at_migration | 2,258 | 8.9% | 147 | 97% | 15 | 76,887x | $0.691 |
| grad_oracleORACLE | ORACLE | 2,262 | 8.8% | 147 | 97% | 15 | 76,887x | $0.841 |
| uri_recycled | at_mint | 876 | 0.0% | 50 | 33% | 18 | 15x | $0.120 |
| green5 | at_5m | 1,125 | 0.2% | 50 | 33% | 22 | 39x | $0.408 |
| buy_pressure5 | at_5m | 1,851 | 4.5% | 79 | 52% | 23 | 32x | $0.268 |
| replies_gt3thin | at_10m | 47 | 0.0% | 2 | 1% | 24 | 2x | $0.074 |
| vol5_gt1k | at_5m | 4,963 | 4.0% | 137 | 91% | 36 | 176,525x | $0.293 |
| baseline | at_mint | 26,325 | 0.9% | 151 | 100% | 174 | 76,887x | $0.147 |
A filter earns its place by cutting bets faster than it cuts
winners — "keep" is the share of the cohort's 151 big winners it retained; a filter that
boosts EV but drops the monsters is a trap. Green EV clears the cost line ($2.21 at the $2 reference stake — race stakes differ per venue).
ORACLE = needs future knowledge, ceiling only. ONE-TOKEN = result rides on a single coin.
Winners study — what the $200k+ class looked like at launch
winners crawled
425
crawl 25h old
first-ever launches
86%
rotation-blind — see note
median mint→ATH
6d
48% took >7 days
| ATH tier | n | median days to ATH | first-launch creators |
|---|
| $200k–1M | 105 | 19d | 75% |
| $1M–10M | 98 | 70d | 83% |
| >$10M | 73 | 140d | 79% |
One-shot crawl of pump.fun's listing, survivor-biased by
design (listed by CURRENT mcap, so collapsed winners are invisible). ATHs are pump-tracker prints
with no realizability leg — wash-printable, and one confirmed $60M farm print is in the set.
"First-launch" cannot see wallet rotation (URI-lineage lower bound: 2 of 365 rotated).
The duration findings are robust to both: monsters grind for weeks, they do not spike.
Staged entries — pyramid tickets into coins that keep proving themselves
| plan | bets | deployed | returned | ROI | winners held |
Instead of one ticket at mint, tickets are added as a coin
passes survival gates: graduation, then still-grinding a day later (≥$60k, within 50% of its high,
live quote), then again at day 3. Winners grind for weeks — persistence is the signal. Gate tranches
activate once coins age past each gate; each tranche settles at its own entry price.
Predictions
None yet — deliberately.
Predictions start publishing here when a filter stack clears
the cost line over a multi-week window with a sample no single coin dominates. Current best honest
candidate: buy at graduation — keeps ~93% of big winners in ~3% of the bets and sits above
cost — with cheap pre-screens (early-buyer count) that so far cut over half the bets while keeping
every winner. Until then this page reports measurements, not tips.