Meme-coin lottery — forward testPAPER ONLY
Strategy under test: many tiny bets, paid for by the rare monster.
A win rate as low as 1% is fine — at $2.21 a bet, one true 1000x
($2.1M market cap from a ~$2.1k launch) returns roughly
$1,900 and carries ~860 losers on its back. Everything below is measured through that lens:
keep the future monsters in the net, cut everything else.
No real money. Updated 2026-07-25 15:38 UTC · auto-refreshes every 5 min.
mint firehose: ok · 11s ago
price marks: ok · 9s ago
holder snapshots: ok · 9s ago
Collection — 7.6 hours of continuous capture
mints tracked
7,104
7,104 in 24h
priced (paper entries)
6,213
holder snapshots
4,472
1–9 min after mint
witnessed rugs
13
≥$30k → drained = $0 return
blacklisted wallets
66
grows only, never forgives
Economics — does the tail pay for the body?
cost per $2 bet
$2.21
stake + 1% fee + priority + rent
big winners in cohort
62
true ATH ≥ $210k (~100x)
bets per big win
100
unfiltered — the number filters must shrink
basket EV per bet
$0.187
sell-at-30%-of-peak, rugs = $0
edge
-91.5%
must reach 0% to go live
breakeven 1000x rate
1 in ~860
what the math demands
best multiple seen
4,353x
true ATH vs paper entry
Peak multiples — 6,214 priced launches (true ATHs)
Filter scoreboard — ranked by bets per kept big winner
| filter | decides | bets | rug% |
wins kept | keep | bets/win | best | EV |
|---|
| relaunch_of_winONE-TOKENthin | at_mint | 24 | 0.0% | 21 | 34% | 1 | 15x | $0.648 |
| grad_firstthin | at_migration | 47 | 0.0% | 24 | 39% | 2 | 15x | $0.887 |
| grad_fast30 | at_migration | 192 | 1.6% | 60 | 97% | 3 | 645x | $3.022 |
| grad_entry | at_migration | 222 | 1.4% | 61 | 98% | 4 | 645x | $2.763 |
| grad_oracleORACLE | ORACLE | 224 | 1.3% | 61 | 98% | 4 | 205x | $1.692 |
| uri_recycled | at_mint | 129 | 0.0% | 24 | 39% | 5 | 15x | $0.271 |
| grad_proventhin | at_migration | 66 | 3.0% | 7 | 11% | 9 | 177x | $1.662 |
| buy_pressure5 | at_5m | 630 | 0.0% | 48 | 77% | 13 | 17x | $0.153 |
| green5 | at_5m | 747 | 0.3% | 51 | 82% | 15 | 80x | $0.419 |
| cr_true_first | at_mint | 583 | 0.5% | 24 | 39% | 24 | 35x | $0.258 |
| holders_top10_gt50 | at_10m | 558 | 1.1% | 22 | 35% | 25 | 127x | $0.194 |
| grad_slowthin | at_migration | 30 | 0.0% | 1 | 2% | 30 | 11x | $1.104 |
| creator_fresh | at_mint | 1,872 | 0.2% | 56 | 90% | 33 | 35x | $0.196 |
| vol5_gt1k | at_5m | 1,877 | 0.4% | 54 | 87% | 35 | 127x | $0.271 |
| baseline | at_mint | 6,214 | 0.2% | 62 | 100% | 100 | 205x | $0.187 |
A filter earns its place by cutting bets faster than it cuts
winners — "keep" is the share of the cohort's 62 big winners it retained; a filter that
boosts EV but drops the monsters is a trap. Green EV clears the cost line ($2.21).
ORACLE = needs future knowledge, ceiling only. ONE-TOKEN = result rides on a single coin.
Strategy race — two books, same store, settled identically
MONSTER — grad + grind tranches; exit -50% trailing stop
+125.5%
196 bets · $433 deployed · $976 back · 60 big winners · top-1 57%
| day | bets | cum in | cum out | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-07-25 | 196 | $433 | $976 | +125.5% |
MONSTER-T25 — same book; tighter exit: -25% trailing stop
+24.2%
196 bets · $433 deployed · $538 back · 60 big winners · top-1 41%
| day | bets | cum in | cum out | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-07-25 | 196 | $433 | $538 | +24.2% |
HOURLY-HH — +$2 every hour a new high prints; exit -50% trailing stop
+76.4%
322 bets · $711 deployed · $1,255 back · 60 big winners · top-1 44%
| day | bets | cum in | cum out | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-07-25 | 322 | $711 | $1,255 | +76.4% |
MONSTER: $2 at graduation, +$2 at +24h/+72h only on higher highs; ruggers and serial-dud creators cut; exit −50% trailing stop, filled at the breaching quote. MONSTER-T25: same book, −25% stop. HOURLY-HH: +$2 every hour that prints a new high (max 48 adds), −50% stop. Open tranches mark to the last quote; daily rows accrue.
Staged entries — pyramid tickets into coins that keep proving themselves
| plan | bets | deployed | returned | ROI | winners held |
|---|
| mint only | 6,214 | $13,722 | $1,163 | -91.5% | 62 |
| graduation only | 222 | $490 | $613 | +25.1% | 61 |
| grad + grind@24h | 222 | $490 | $613 | +25.1% | 61 |
| grad + grind@24h+@72h | 222 | $490 | $613 | +25.1% | 61 |
Instead of one ticket at mint, tickets are added as a coin
passes survival gates: graduation, then still-grinding a day later (≥$60k, within 50% of its high,
live quote), then again at day 3. Winners grind for weeks — persistence is the signal. Gate tranches
activate once coins age past each gate; each tranche settles at its own entry price.
Predictions
None yet — deliberately.
Predictions start publishing here when a filter stack clears
the cost line over a multi-week window with a sample no single coin dominates. Current best honest
candidate: buy at graduation — keeps ~93% of big winners in ~3% of the bets and sits above
cost — with cheap pre-screens (early-buyer count) that so far cut over half the bets while keeping
every winner. Until then this page reports measurements, not tips.