Meme-coin lottery — forward testPAPER ONLY
Strategy under test: many tiny bets, paid for by the rare monster.
A win rate as low as 1% is fine — at $2.21 a bet, one true 1000x
($2.1M market cap from a ~$2.1k launch) returns roughly
$1,900 and carries ~860 losers on its back. Everything below is measured through that lens:
keep the future monsters in the net, cut everything else.
No real money. Updated 2026-07-26 05:37 UTC · auto-refreshes every 5 min.
mint firehose: ok · 2s ago
price marks: ok · 1s ago
holder snapshots: ok · 16s ago
Collection — 21.6 hours of continuous capture
mints tracked
23,629
23,629 in 24h
graduations
1,025
1,025 in 24h
Race totals — today (UTC)
GRAD-T50
+2.0%
$895 in → $913 out · 405 bets
F30-T50
+3.0%
$866 in → $892 out · 392 bets
GRAD-T25
+3.7%
$895 in → $928 out · 405 bets
F30-T25
+4.3%
$866 in → $904 out · 392 bets
HOURLY-HH
-5.4%
$1,191 in → $1,127 out · 539 bets
F30-HH
-4.6%
$1,154 in → $1,101 out · 522 bets
Race totals — cumulative per book
GRAD-T50
-22.0%
$1,843 in → $1,439 out · 834 bets
F30-T50
-21.1%
$1,695 in → $1,338 out · 767 bets
GRAD-T25
-22.6%
$1,843 in → $1,427 out · 834 bets
F30-T25
-23.1%
$1,695 in → $1,304 out · 767 bets
HOURLY-HH
-29.1%
$2,801 in → $1,987 out · 1,267 bets
F30-HH
-28.7%
$2,571 in → $1,834 out · 1,163 bets
Entry drift — could we fill at our quoted entries?
graduation entries measured
848
median next-quote drift
+0.0%
p25 -19.7% · p75 +11.8%
moved >10% against us
27%
median quote gap 342s
Drift between our entry quote and the next quote — the realistic band a ~1-minute-latency fill lands in. Price impact at $2 size is negligible (~0.003% into a $60k pool); timing volatility is the whole story. We hold rather than snipe, so entry drift mostly shifts the base, not the thesis.
Race totals — by mint source
| source | GRAD-T50 | F30-T50 | GRAD-T25 | F30-T25 | HOURLY-HH | F30-HH |
|---|
| bonk | -36% ($-3) | -36% ($-3) | -32% ($-3) | -32% ($-3) | -29% ($-4) | -29% ($-4) |
| gt:solana | +34% ($165) | +34% ($165) | +34% ($166) | +34% ($166) | +29% ($157) | +29% ($157) |
| pump | -42% ($-566) | -43% ($-519) | -43% ($-579) | -46% ($-554) | -43% ($-967) | -44% ($-891) |
Each cell: ROI (net $) for that book's tranches on coins
from that source. gt:* rows are pool-birth entries from the GeckoTerminal catcher.
Strategy race — two books, same store, settled identically
GRAD-T50 — grad entry; exit -50% trailing stop
-22.0%
834 bets · $1,843 deployed · $1,439 back · 87 big winners · top-1 10%
| block (UTC) | bets | in | out | ROI |
|---|
| 07-25 08–12h | 87 | $192 | $185 | -3.9% |
| 07-25 12–16h | 125 | $276 | $87 | -68.6% |
| 07-25 16–20h | 118 | $261 | $156 | -40.1% |
| 07-25 20–24h | 99 | $219 | $98 | -55.4% |
| 07-26 00–04h | 96 | $212 | $102 | -52.0% |
| 07-26 04–08h | 309 | $683 | $811 | +18.8% |
| total | 834 | $1,843 | $1,439 | -22.0% |
GRAD-T25 — grad entry; exit -25% trailing stop
-22.6%
834 bets · $1,843 deployed · $1,427 back · 87 big winners · top-1 10%
| block (UTC) | bets | in | out | ROI |
|---|
| 07-25 08–12h | 87 | $192 | $95 | -50.6% |
| 07-25 12–16h | 125 | $276 | $124 | -55.3% |
| 07-25 16–20h | 118 | $261 | $152 | -41.9% |
| 07-25 20–24h | 99 | $219 | $129 | -41.1% |
| 07-26 00–04h | 96 | $212 | $113 | -46.9% |
| 07-26 04–08h | 309 | $683 | $815 | +19.4% |
| total | 834 | $1,843 | $1,427 | -22.6% |
HOURLY-HH — grad entry +$2 every hour a new high prints; -50% stop
-29.1%
1,267 bets · $2,801 deployed · $1,987 back · 87 big winners · top-1 7%
| block (UTC) | bets | in | out | ROI |
|---|
| 07-25 08–12h | 136 | $301 | $242 | -19.7% |
| 07-25 12–16h | 193 | $427 | $152 | -64.4% |
| 07-25 16–20h | 215 | $475 | $256 | -46.2% |
| 07-25 20–24h | 184 | $407 | $211 | -48.1% |
| 07-26 00–04h | 176 | $389 | $214 | -44.9% |
| 07-26 04–08h | 363 | $802 | $913 | +13.8% |
| total | 1,267 | $2,801 | $1,987 | -29.1% |
F30-T50 — fast graduates (<30min) only; -50% trailing stop
-21.1%
767 bets · $1,695 deployed · $1,338 back · 85 big winners · top-1 11%
| block (UTC) | bets | in | out | ROI |
|---|
| 07-25 08–12h | 80 | $177 | $180 | +1.7% |
| 07-25 12–16h | 108 | $239 | $73 | -69.3% |
| 07-25 16–20h | 103 | $228 | $111 | -51.2% |
| 07-25 20–24h | 84 | $186 | $82 | -55.9% |
| 07-26 00–04h | 87 | $192 | $89 | -53.6% |
| 07-26 04–08h | 305 | $674 | $803 | +19.1% |
| total | 767 | $1,695 | $1,338 | -21.1% |
F30-T25 — fast graduates (<30min) only; -25% trailing stop
-23.1%
767 bets · $1,695 deployed · $1,304 back · 85 big winners · top-1 11%
| block (UTC) | bets | in | out | ROI |
|---|
| 07-25 08–12h | 80 | $177 | $87 | -50.8% |
| 07-25 12–16h | 108 | $239 | $104 | -56.3% |
| 07-25 16–20h | 103 | $228 | $104 | -54.3% |
| 07-25 20–24h | 84 | $186 | $105 | -43.6% |
| 07-26 00–04h | 87 | $192 | $99 | -48.6% |
| 07-26 04–08h | 305 | $674 | $805 | +19.4% |
| total | 767 | $1,695 | $1,304 | -23.1% |
F30-HH — fast graduates; +$2 hourly on new highs; -50% stop
-28.7%
1,163 bets · $2,571 deployed · $1,834 back · 85 big winners · top-1 8%
| block (UTC) | bets | in | out | ROI |
|---|
| 07-25 08–12h | 125 | $276 | $231 | -16.6% |
| 07-25 12–16h | 165 | $365 | $121 | -66.8% |
| 07-25 16–20h | 190 | $420 | $198 | -52.8% |
| 07-25 20–24h | 161 | $356 | $183 | -48.6% |
| 07-26 00–04h | 165 | $365 | $200 | -45.3% |
| 07-26 04–08h | 357 | $789 | $901 | +14.2% |
| total | 1,163 | $2,571 | $1,834 | -28.7% |
All three books buy graduates only (ruggers and serial-dud creators cut). GRAD-T50 / GRAD-T25: single $2 at graduation, −50% / −25% trailing stop filled at the breaching quote. HOURLY-HH: same entry, +$2 each hour that prints a new high (max 48 adds), −50% stop. Open tranches mark to the last quote. F30-*: the same three books restricted to coins that graduated within 30 minutes of mint — every big winner so far has.
Filter scoreboard — ranked by bets per kept big winner
| filter | decides | bets | rug% |
wins kept | keep | bets/win | best | EV |
|---|
| relaunch_of_win | at_mint | 120 | 0.8% | 38 | 43% | 3 | 15x | $0.430 |
| grad_first | at_migration | 191 | 0.0% | 47 | 53% | 4 | 282x | $4.304 |
| grad_confirm5 | at_mig5 | 781 | 0.8% | 85 | 120% | 9 | 39x | $0.732 |
| grad_fast30 | at_migration | 856 | 0.9% | 86 | 97% | 10 | 1,471x | $3.651 |
| grad_entry | at_migration | 947 | 0.8% | 88 | 99% | 11 | 1,987x | $3.439 |
| grad_oracleORACLE | ORACLE | 949 | 0.8% | 88 | 99% | 11 | 5,867x | $1.289 |
| grad_proven | at_migration | 213 | 1.9% | 15 | 17% | 14 | 1,216x | $4.146 |
| uri_recycled | at_mint | 808 | 0.0% | 37 | 42% | 22 | 15x | $0.101 |
| green5 | at_5m | 1,125 | 0.2% | 50 | 56% | 22 | 80x | $0.508 |
| buy_pressure5 | at_5m | 1,536 | 0.0% | 56 | 63% | 27 | 32x | $0.237 |
| grad_slowthin | at_migration | 91 | 0.0% | 2 | 2% | 46 | 1,987x | $1.451 |
| vol5_gt1k | at_5m | 4,251 | 0.7% | 81 | 91% | 52 | 80x | $0.306 |
| cr_true_first | at_mint | 2,573 | 0.2% | 47 | 53% | 55 | 121x | $0.219 |
| grad_dumped5ONE-TOKEN | at_mig5 | 166 | 1.2% | 3 | 4% | 55 | 3,071x | $4.258 |
| baseline | at_mint | 20,175 | 0.2% | 89 | 100% | 227 | 5,867x | $0.128 |
A filter earns its place by cutting bets faster than it cuts
winners — "keep" is the share of the cohort's 89 big winners it retained; a filter that
boosts EV but drops the monsters is a trap. Green EV clears the cost line ($2.21).
ORACLE = needs future knowledge, ceiling only. ONE-TOKEN = result rides on a single coin.
Race totals — today (UTC)
GRAD-T50
+2.0%
$895 in → $913 out · 405 bets
F30-T50
+3.0%
$866 in → $892 out · 392 bets
GRAD-T25
+3.7%
$895 in → $928 out · 405 bets
F30-T25
+4.3%
$866 in → $904 out · 392 bets
HOURLY-HH
-5.4%
$1,191 in → $1,127 out · 539 bets
F30-HH
-4.6%
$1,154 in → $1,101 out · 522 bets
Race totals — cumulative per book
GRAD-T50
-22.0%
$1,843 in → $1,439 out · 834 bets
F30-T50
-21.1%
$1,695 in → $1,338 out · 767 bets
GRAD-T25
-22.6%
$1,843 in → $1,427 out · 834 bets
F30-T25
-23.1%
$1,695 in → $1,304 out · 767 bets
HOURLY-HH
-29.1%
$2,801 in → $1,987 out · 1,267 bets
F30-HH
-28.7%
$2,571 in → $1,834 out · 1,163 bets
Entry drift — could we fill at our quoted entries?
graduation entries measured
848
median next-quote drift
+0.0%
p25 -19.7% · p75 +11.8%
moved >10% against us
27%
median quote gap 342s
Drift between our entry quote and the next quote — the realistic band a ~1-minute-latency fill lands in. Price impact at $2 size is negligible (~0.003% into a $60k pool); timing volatility is the whole story. We hold rather than snipe, so entry drift mostly shifts the base, not the thesis.
Race totals — by mint source
| source | GRAD-T50 | F30-T50 | GRAD-T25 | F30-T25 | HOURLY-HH | F30-HH |
|---|
| bonk | -36% ($-3) | -36% ($-3) | -32% ($-3) | -32% ($-3) | -29% ($-4) | -29% ($-4) |
| gt:solana | +34% ($165) | +34% ($165) | +34% ($166) | +34% ($166) | +29% ($157) | +29% ($157) |
| pump | -42% ($-566) | -43% ($-519) | -43% ($-579) | -46% ($-554) | -43% ($-967) | -44% ($-891) |
Each cell: ROI (net $) for that book's tranches on coins
from that source. gt:* rows are pool-birth entries from the GeckoTerminal catcher.
Strategy race — two books, same store, settled identically
GRAD-T50 — grad entry; exit -50% trailing stop
-22.0%
834 bets · $1,843 deployed · $1,439 back · 87 big winners · top-1 10%
| block (UTC) | bets | in | out | ROI |
|---|
| 07-25 08–12h | 87 | $192 | $185 | -3.9% |
| 07-25 12–16h | 125 | $276 | $87 | -68.6% |
| 07-25 16–20h | 118 | $261 | $156 | -40.1% |
| 07-25 20–24h | 99 | $219 | $98 | -55.4% |
| 07-26 00–04h | 96 | $212 | $102 | -52.0% |
| 07-26 04–08h | 309 | $683 | $811 | +18.8% |
| total | 834 | $1,843 | $1,439 | -22.0% |
GRAD-T25 — grad entry; exit -25% trailing stop
-22.6%
834 bets · $1,843 deployed · $1,427 back · 87 big winners · top-1 10%
| block (UTC) | bets | in | out | ROI |
|---|
| 07-25 08–12h | 87 | $192 | $95 | -50.6% |
| 07-25 12–16h | 125 | $276 | $124 | -55.3% |
| 07-25 16–20h | 118 | $261 | $152 | -41.9% |
| 07-25 20–24h | 99 | $219 | $129 | -41.1% |
| 07-26 00–04h | 96 | $212 | $113 | -46.9% |
| 07-26 04–08h | 309 | $683 | $815 | +19.4% |
| total | 834 | $1,843 | $1,427 | -22.6% |
HOURLY-HH — grad entry +$2 every hour a new high prints; -50% stop
-29.1%
1,267 bets · $2,801 deployed · $1,987 back · 87 big winners · top-1 7%
| block (UTC) | bets | in | out | ROI |
|---|
| 07-25 08–12h | 136 | $301 | $242 | -19.7% |
| 07-25 12–16h | 193 | $427 | $152 | -64.4% |
| 07-25 16–20h | 215 | $475 | $256 | -46.2% |
| 07-25 20–24h | 184 | $407 | $211 | -48.1% |
| 07-26 00–04h | 176 | $389 | $214 | -44.9% |
| 07-26 04–08h | 363 | $802 | $913 | +13.8% |
| total | 1,267 | $2,801 | $1,987 | -29.1% |
F30-T50 — fast graduates (<30min) only; -50% trailing stop
-21.1%
767 bets · $1,695 deployed · $1,338 back · 85 big winners · top-1 11%
| block (UTC) | bets | in | out | ROI |
|---|
| 07-25 08–12h | 80 | $177 | $180 | +1.7% |
| 07-25 12–16h | 108 | $239 | $73 | -69.3% |
| 07-25 16–20h | 103 | $228 | $111 | -51.2% |
| 07-25 20–24h | 84 | $186 | $82 | -55.9% |
| 07-26 00–04h | 87 | $192 | $89 | -53.6% |
| 07-26 04–08h | 305 | $674 | $803 | +19.1% |
| total | 767 | $1,695 | $1,338 | -21.1% |
F30-T25 — fast graduates (<30min) only; -25% trailing stop
-23.1%
767 bets · $1,695 deployed · $1,304 back · 85 big winners · top-1 11%
| block (UTC) | bets | in | out | ROI |
|---|
| 07-25 08–12h | 80 | $177 | $87 | -50.8% |
| 07-25 12–16h | 108 | $239 | $104 | -56.3% |
| 07-25 16–20h | 103 | $228 | $104 | -54.3% |
| 07-25 20–24h | 84 | $186 | $105 | -43.6% |
| 07-26 00–04h | 87 | $192 | $99 | -48.6% |
| 07-26 04–08h | 305 | $674 | $805 | +19.4% |
| total | 767 | $1,695 | $1,304 | -23.1% |
F30-HH — fast graduates; +$2 hourly on new highs; -50% stop
-28.7%
1,163 bets · $2,571 deployed · $1,834 back · 85 big winners · top-1 8%
| block (UTC) | bets | in | out | ROI |
|---|
| 07-25 08–12h | 125 | $276 | $231 | -16.6% |
| 07-25 12–16h | 165 | $365 | $121 | -66.8% |
| 07-25 16–20h | 190 | $420 | $198 | -52.8% |
| 07-25 20–24h | 161 | $356 | $183 | -48.6% |
| 07-26 00–04h | 165 | $365 | $200 | -45.3% |
| 07-26 04–08h | 357 | $789 | $901 | +14.2% |
| total | 1,163 | $2,571 | $1,834 | -28.7% |
MONSTER: $2 at graduation, +$2 at +24h/+72h only on higher highs; ruggers and serial-dud creators cut; exit −50% trailing stop, filled at the breaching quote. MONSTER-T25: same book, −25% stop. HOURLY-HH: +$2 every hour that prints a new high (max 48 adds), −50% stop. Open tranches mark to the last quote; daily rows accrue.
Staged entries — pyramid tickets into coins that keep proving themselves
| plan | bets | deployed | returned | ROI | winners held |
|---|
Instead of one ticket at mint, tickets are added as a coin
passes survival gates: graduation, then still-grinding a day later (≥$60k, within 50% of its high,
live quote), then again at day 3. Winners grind for weeks — persistence is the signal. Gate tranches
activate once coins age past each gate; each tranche settles at its own entry price.
Predictions
None yet — deliberately.
Predictions start publishing here when a filter stack clears
the cost line over a multi-week window with a sample no single coin dominates. Current best honest
candidate: buy at graduation — keeps ~93% of big winners in ~3% of the bets and sits above
cost — with cheap pre-screens (early-buyer count) that so far cut over half the bets while keeping
every winner. Until then this page reports measurements, not tips.