Meme-coin lottery — forward testPAPER ONLY
Strategy under test: many tiny bets, paid for by the rare monster.
A win rate as low as 1% is fine — at $2.21 a bet, one true 1000x
($2.1M market cap from a ~$2.1k launch) returns roughly
$1,900 and carries ~860 losers on its back. Everything below is measured through that lens:
keep the future monsters in the net, cut everything else.
No real money. Updated 2026-07-25 17:35 UTC · auto-refreshes every 5 min.
mint firehose: ok · 2s ago
price marks: ok · 1s ago
holder snapshots: ok · 1s ago
Collection — 9.6 hours of continuous capture
mints tracked
9,580
9,580 in 24h
priced (paper entries)
8,277
holder snapshots
6,963
1–9 min after mint
witnessed rugs
16
≥$30k → drained = $0 return
blacklisted wallets
94
grows only, never forgives
Economics — does the tail pay for the body?
cost per $2 bet
$2.21
stake + 1% fee + priority + rent
big winners in cohort
89
true ATH ≥ $210k (~100x)
bets per big win
93
unfiltered — the number filters must shrink
basket EV per bet
$0.201
sell-at-30%-of-peak, rugs = $0
edge
-90.9%
must reach 0% to go live
breakeven 1000x rate
1 in ~860
what the math demands
best multiple seen
4,596x
true ATH vs paper entry
Peak multiples — 8,277 priced launches (true ATHs)
Filter scoreboard — ranked by bets per kept big winner
| filter | decides | bets | rug% |
wins kept | keep | bets/win | best | EV |
|---|
| relaunch_of_winONE-TOKENthin | at_mint | 42 | 0.0% | 39 | 44% | 1 | 15x | $0.420 |
| grad_firstONE-TOKENthin | at_migration | 90 | 0.0% | 53 | 60% | 2 | 257x | $2.216 |
| grad_fast30 | at_migration | 256 | 1.6% | 87 | 98% | 3 | 645x | $2.536 |
| grad_entry | at_migration | 296 | 1.4% | 88 | 99% | 3 | 645x | $2.389 |
| grad_oracleORACLE | ORACLE | 297 | 1.3% | 88 | 99% | 3 | 1,589x | $2.448 |
| uri_recycled | at_mint | 186 | 0.0% | 42 | 47% | 4 | 15x | $0.211 |
| grad_proventhin | at_migration | 90 | 2.2% | 8 | 9% | 11 | 177x | $1.979 |
| buy_pressure5 | at_5m | 831 | 0.0% | 71 | 80% | 12 | 17x | $0.177 |
| green5 | at_5m | 932 | 0.2% | 79 | 89% | 12 | 80x | $0.487 |
| cr_true_first | at_mint | 923 | 0.3% | 53 | 60% | 17 | 35x | $0.276 |
| holders_top10_gt50 | at_10m | 829 | 0.7% | 40 | 45% | 21 | 180x | $0.206 |
| vol5_gt1k | at_5m | 2,434 | 0.5% | 84 | 94% | 29 | 180x | $0.279 |
| creator_fresh | at_mint | 2,512 | 0.1% | 83 | 93% | 30 | 1,589x | $0.302 |
| buyers5_gt10 | at_5m | 3,034 | 0.5% | 88 | 99% | 34 | 16,673x | $0.400 |
| baseline | at_mint | 8,277 | 0.2% | 89 | 100% | 93 | 1,589x | $0.201 |
A filter earns its place by cutting bets faster than it cuts
winners — "keep" is the share of the cohort's 89 big winners it retained; a filter that
boosts EV but drops the monsters is a trap. Green EV clears the cost line ($2.21).
ORACLE = needs future knowledge, ceiling only. ONE-TOKEN = result rides on a single coin.
Strategy race — two books, same store, settled identically
MONSTER — grad + grind tranches; exit -50% trailing stop
+84.1%
261 bets · $576 deployed · $1,061 back · 87 big winners · top-1 53%
| day | bets | cum in | cum out | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-07-25 | 261 | $576 | $1,061 | +84.1% |
MONSTER-T25 — same book; tighter exit: -25% trailing stop
+9.9%
261 bets · $576 deployed · $633 back · 87 big winners · top-1 34%
| day | bets | cum in | cum out | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-07-25 | 261 | $576 | $633 | +9.9% |
HOURLY-HH — +$2 every hour a new high prints; exit -50% trailing stop
+42.4%
458 bets · $1,011 deployed · $1,440 back · 87 big winners · top-1 39%
| day | bets | cum in | cum out | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-07-25 | 458 | $1,011 | $1,440 | +42.4% |
MONSTER: $2 at graduation, +$2 at +24h/+72h only on higher highs; ruggers and serial-dud creators cut; exit −50% trailing stop, filled at the breaching quote. MONSTER-T25: same book, −25% stop. HOURLY-HH: +$2 every hour that prints a new high (max 48 adds), −50% stop. Open tranches mark to the last quote; daily rows accrue.
Staged entries — pyramid tickets into coins that keep proving themselves
| plan | bets | deployed | returned | ROI | winners held |
|---|
| mint only | 8,277 | $18,277 | $1,666 | -90.9% | 89 |
| graduation only | 296 | $654 | $707 | +8.2% | 88 |
| grad + grind@24h | 296 | $654 | $707 | +8.2% | 88 |
| grad + grind@24h+@72h | 296 | $654 | $707 | +8.2% | 88 |
Instead of one ticket at mint, tickets are added as a coin
passes survival gates: graduation, then still-grinding a day later (≥$60k, within 50% of its high,
live quote), then again at day 3. Winners grind for weeks — persistence is the signal. Gate tranches
activate once coins age past each gate; each tranche settles at its own entry price.
Predictions
None yet — deliberately.
Predictions start publishing here when a filter stack clears
the cost line over a multi-week window with a sample no single coin dominates. Current best honest
candidate: buy at graduation — keeps ~93% of big winners in ~3% of the bets and sits above
cost — with cheap pre-screens (early-buyer count) that so far cut over half the bets while keeping
every winner. Until then this page reports measurements, not tips.