Meme-coin lottery — forward testPAPER ONLY
Strategy under test: many tiny bets, paid for by the rare monster.
A win rate as low as 1% is fine — at $2.21 a bet, one true 1000x
($2.1M market cap from a ~$2.1k launch) returns roughly
$1,900 and carries ~860 losers on its back. Everything below is measured through that lens:
keep the future monsters in the net, cut everything else.
No real money. Updated 2026-07-26 01:30 UTC · auto-refreshes every 5 min.
mint firehose: ok · 0s ago
price marks: ok · 1s ago
holder snapshots: ok · 1s ago
Collection — 17.5 hours of continuous capture
mints tracked
19,578
19,578 in 24h
priced (paper entries)
16,554
holder snapshots
16,984
1–9 min after mint
witnessed rugs
40
≥$30k → drained = $0 return
blacklisted wallets
177
grows only, never forgives
Economics — does the tail pay for the body?
cost per $2 bet
$2.21
stake + 1% fee + priority + rent
big winners in cohort
153
true ATH ≥ $210k (~100x)
bets per big win
108
unfiltered — the number filters must shrink
basket EV per bet
$0.142
sell-at-30%-of-peak, rugs = $0
edge
-93.6%
must reach 0% to go live
breakeven 1000x rate
1 in ~860
what the math demands
best multiple seen
42,085x
true ATH vs paper entry
Peak multiples — 16,554 priced launches (true ATHs)
Filter scoreboard — ranked by bets per kept big winner
| filter | decides | bets | rug% |
wins kept | keep | bets/win | best | EV |
|---|
| relaunch_of_win | at_mint | 108 | 0.9% | 82 | 54% | 1 | 15x | $0.437 |
| grad_first | at_migration | 166 | 0.0% | 92 | 60% | 2 | 282x | $4.271 |
| grad_fast30 | at_migration | 478 | 1.3% | 150 | 98% | 3 | 20,302x | $4.914 |
| grad_oracleORACLE | ORACLE | 558 | 1.1% | 152 | 99% | 4 | 5,867x | $1.893 |
| grad_entry | at_migration | 556 | 1.1% | 151 | 99% | 4 | 20,302x | $4.509 |
| uri_recycled | at_mint | 536 | 0.0% | 85 | 56% | 6 | 15x | $0.139 |
| green5 | at_5m | 1,125 | 0.2% | 95 | 62% | 12 | 80x | $0.532 |
| grad_proven | at_migration | 179 | 1.7% | 15 | 10% | 12 | 1,216x | $3.477 |
| buy_pressure5 | at_5m | 1,411 | 0.0% | 114 | 75% | 12 | 32x | $0.205 |
| cr_true_first | at_mint | 2,087 | 0.2% | 93 | 61% | 22 | 121x | $0.257 |
| vol5_gt1k | at_5m | 3,995 | 0.7% | 142 | 93% | 28 | 27,894x | $0.401 |
| holders_top10_gt50 | at_10m | 2,125 | 1.1% | 72 | 47% | 30 | 20,302x | $0.229 |
| creator_fresh | at_mint | 4,806 | 0.2% | 139 | 91% | 35 | 4,053x | $0.199 |
| buyers5_gt10 | at_5m | 5,180 | 0.7% | 149 | 97% | 35 | 41,069x | $0.428 |
| baseline | at_mint | 16,554 | 0.2% | 153 | 100% | 108 | 5,867x | $0.142 |
A filter earns its place by cutting bets faster than it cuts
winners — "keep" is the share of the cohort's 153 big winners it retained; a filter that
boosts EV but drops the monsters is a trap. Green EV clears the cost line ($2.21).
ORACLE = needs future knowledge, ceiling only. ONE-TOKEN = result rides on a single coin.
Strategy race — two books, same store, settled identically
MONSTER — grad + grind tranches; exit -50% trailing stop
+598.4%
471 bets · $1,040 deployed · $7,263 back · 149 big winners · top-1 80%
| day | bets | cum in | cum out | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-07-25 | 429 | $947 | $7,191 | +659.1% |
| 2026-07-26 | 42 | $1,040 | $7,263 | +598.4% |
MONSTER-T25 — same book; tighter exit: -25% trailing stop
+709.4%
471 bets · $1,040 deployed · $8,418 back · 149 big winners · top-1 89%
| day | bets | cum in | cum out | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-07-25 | 429 | $947 | $8,347 | +781.1% |
| 2026-07-26 | 42 | $1,040 | $8,418 | +709.4% |
HOURLY-HH — +$2 every hour a new high prints; exit -50% trailing stop
+297.3%
906 bets · $2,001 deployed · $7,949 back · 149 big winners · top-1 74%
| day | bets | cum in | cum out | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-07-25 | 834 | $1,842 | $7,824 | +324.8% |
| 2026-07-26 | 72 | $2,001 | $7,949 | +297.3% |
MONSTER: $2 at graduation, +$2 at +24h/+72h only on higher highs; ruggers and serial-dud creators cut; exit −50% trailing stop, filled at the breaching quote. MONSTER-T25: same book, −25% stop. HOURLY-HH: +$2 every hour that prints a new high (max 48 adds), −50% stop. Open tranches mark to the last quote; daily rows accrue.
Staged entries — pyramid tickets into coins that keep proving themselves
| plan | bets | deployed | returned | ROI | winners held |
|---|
| mint only | 16,554 | $36,554 | $2,349 | -93.6% | 153 |
| graduation only | 556 | $1,228 | $2,507 | +104.2% | 151 |
| grad + grind@24h | 556 | $1,228 | $2,507 | +104.2% | 151 |
| grad + grind@24h+@72h | 556 | $1,228 | $2,507 | +104.2% | 151 |
Instead of one ticket at mint, tickets are added as a coin
passes survival gates: graduation, then still-grinding a day later (≥$60k, within 50% of its high,
live quote), then again at day 3. Winners grind for weeks — persistence is the signal. Gate tranches
activate once coins age past each gate; each tranche settles at its own entry price.
Predictions
None yet — deliberately.
Predictions start publishing here when a filter stack clears
the cost line over a multi-week window with a sample no single coin dominates. Current best honest
candidate: buy at graduation — keeps ~93% of big winners in ~3% of the bets and sits above
cost — with cheap pre-screens (early-buyer count) that so far cut over half the bets while keeping
every winner. Until then this page reports measurements, not tips.