Meme-coin lottery — forward testPAPER ONLY
Strategy under test: many tiny bets, paid for by the rare monster.
A win rate as low as 1% is fine — at $2.21 a bet, one true 1000x
($2.1M market cap from a ~$2.1k launch) returns roughly
$1,900 and carries ~860 losers on its back. Everything below is measured through that lens:
keep the future monsters in the net, cut everything else.
No real money. Updated 2026-07-26 03:40 UTC · auto-refreshes every 5 min.
mint firehose: ok · 10s ago
price marks: ok · 0s ago
holder snapshots: ok · 29s ago
Collection — 19.7 hours of continuous capture
mints tracked
21,993
21,993 in 24h
Race totals — today (UTC)
GRAD-T50
-23.9%
$197 in → $150 out · 89 bets
F30-T50
-38.1%
$179 in → $111 out · 81 bets
GRAD-T25
-33.3%
$197 in → $131 out · 89 bets
F30-T25
-35.1%
$179 in → $116 out · 81 bets
HOURLY-HH
-20.2%
$409 in → $326 out · 185 bets
F30-HH
-28.3%
$376 in → $269 out · 170 bets
Race totals — cumulative per book
GRAD-T50
+558.1%
$1,145 in → $7,535 out · 518 bets
F30-T50
+636.9%
$1,008 in → $7,426 out · 456 bets
GRAD-T25
+640.6%
$1,145 in → $8,478 out · 518 bets
F30-T25
+729.6%
$1,008 in → $8,360 out · 456 bets
HOURLY-HH
+271.8%
$2,254 in → $8,383 out · 1,020 bets
F30-HH
+312.7%
$1,980 in → $8,172 out · 896 bets
Strategy race — two books, same store, settled identically
GRAD-T50 — grad entry; exit -50% trailing stop
+558.1%
518 bets · $1,145 deployed · $7,535 back · 163 big winners · top-1 78%
| block (UTC) | bets | in | out | ROI |
|---|
| 07-25 08–12h | 87 | $192 | $1,143 | +494.3% |
| 07-25 12–16h | 125 | $276 | $88 | -68.2% |
| 07-25 16–20h | 118 | $261 | $6,006 | +2203.1% |
| 07-25 20–24h | 99 | $219 | $148 | -32.5% |
| 07-26 00–04h | 89 | $197 | $150 | -23.9% |
| total | 518 | $1,145 | $7,535 | +558.1% |
GRAD-T25 — grad entry; exit -25% trailing stop
+640.6%
518 bets · $1,145 deployed · $8,478 back · 163 big winners · top-1 88%
| block (UTC) | bets | in | out | ROI |
|---|
| 07-25 08–12h | 87 | $192 | $401 | +108.5% |
| 07-25 12–16h | 125 | $276 | $128 | -53.5% |
| 07-25 16–20h | 118 | $261 | $7,639 | +2829.0% |
| 07-25 20–24h | 99 | $219 | $179 | -18.2% |
| 07-26 00–04h | 89 | $197 | $131 | -33.3% |
| total | 518 | $1,145 | $8,478 | +640.6% |
HOURLY-HH — grad entry +$2 every hour a new high prints; -50% stop
+271.8%
1,020 bets · $2,254 deployed · $8,383 back · 163 big winners · top-1 70%
| block (UTC) | bets | in | out | ROI |
|---|
| 07-25 08–12h | 142 | $314 | $1,285 | +309.5% |
| 07-25 12–16h | 219 | $484 | $255 | -47.4% |
| 07-25 16–20h | 249 | $550 | $6,156 | +1018.6% |
| 07-25 20–24h | 225 | $497 | $361 | -27.5% |
| 07-26 00–04h | 185 | $409 | $326 | -20.2% |
| total | 1,020 | $2,254 | $8,383 | +271.8% |
F30-T50 — fast graduates (<30min) only; -50% trailing stop
+636.9%
456 bets · $1,008 deployed · $7,426 back · 162 big winners · top-1 79%
| block (UTC) | bets | in | out | ROI |
|---|
| 07-25 08–12h | 80 | $177 | $1,136 | +542.3% |
| 07-25 12–16h | 108 | $239 | $74 | -68.8% |
| 07-25 16–20h | 103 | $228 | $5,981 | +2527.5% |
| 07-25 20–24h | 84 | $186 | $124 | -33.2% |
| 07-26 00–04h | 81 | $179 | $111 | -38.1% |
| total | 456 | $1,008 | $7,426 | +636.9% |
F30-T25 — fast graduates (<30min) only; -25% trailing stop
+729.6%
456 bets · $1,008 deployed · $8,360 back · 162 big winners · top-1 90%
| block (UTC) | bets | in | out | ROI |
|---|
| 07-25 08–12h | 80 | $177 | $378 | +114.0% |
| 07-25 12–16h | 108 | $239 | $109 | -54.3% |
| 07-25 16–20h | 103 | $228 | $7,609 | +3242.6% |
| 07-25 20–24h | 84 | $186 | $147 | -20.6% |
| 07-26 00–04h | 81 | $179 | $116 | -35.1% |
| total | 456 | $1,008 | $8,360 | +729.6% |
F30-HH — fast graduates; +$2 hourly on new highs; -50% stop
+312.7%
896 bets · $1,980 deployed · $8,172 back · 162 big winners · top-1 72%
| block (UTC) | bets | in | out | ROI |
|---|
| 07-25 08–12h | 131 | $290 | $1,272 | +339.4% |
| 07-25 12–16h | 183 | $404 | $215 | -47.0% |
| 07-25 16–20h | 218 | $482 | $6,105 | +1167.1% |
| 07-25 20–24h | 194 | $429 | $311 | -27.5% |
| 07-26 00–04h | 170 | $376 | $269 | -28.3% |
| total | 896 | $1,980 | $8,172 | +312.7% |
All three books buy graduates only (ruggers and serial-dud creators cut). GRAD-T50 / GRAD-T25: single $2 at graduation, −50% / −25% trailing stop filled at the breaching quote. HOURLY-HH: same entry, +$2 each hour that prints a new high (max 48 adds), −50% stop. Open tranches mark to the last quote. F30-*: the same three books restricted to coins that graduated within 30 minutes of mint — every big winner so far has.
Filter scoreboard — ranked by bets per kept big winner
| filter | decides | bets | rug% |
wins kept | keep | bets/win | best | EV |
|---|
| relaunch_of_win | at_mint | 114 | 0.9% | 88 | 53% | 1 | 15x | $0.427 |
| grad_first | at_migration | 191 | 0.0% | 104 | 62% | 2 | 282x | $4.348 |
| grad_fast30 | at_migration | 526 | 1.5% | 164 | 98% | 3 | 20,302x | $4.927 |
| grad_oracleORACLE | ORACLE | 611 | 1.3% | 166 | 99% | 4 | 5,867x | $1.814 |
| grad_entry | at_migration | 610 | 1.3% | 165 | 99% | 4 | 20,302x | $4.525 |
| uri_recycled | at_mint | 767 | 0.0% | 91 | 54% | 8 | 15x | $0.102 |
| grad_proven | at_migration | 192 | 2.1% | 17 | 10% | 11 | 1,216x | $3.506 |
| buy_pressure5 | at_5m | 1,464 | 0.0% | 126 | 75% | 12 | 32x | $0.213 |
| green5 | at_5m | 1,125 | 0.2% | 95 | 57% | 12 | 80x | $0.530 |
| cr_true_first | at_mint | 2,569 | 0.2% | 105 | 63% | 24 | 121x | $0.225 |
| vol5_gt1k | at_5m | 4,123 | 0.8% | 157 | 94% | 26 | 27,894x | $0.434 |
| holders_top10_gt50 | at_10m | 2,540 | 1.1% | 80 | 48% | 32 | 20,302x | $0.197 |
| buyers5_gt10 | at_5m | 5,369 | 0.7% | 165 | 99% | 33 | 41,069x | $0.453 |
| creator_fresh | at_mint | 5,432 | 0.1% | 151 | 90% | 36 | 4,053x | $0.188 |
| baseline | at_mint | 18,698 | 0.2% | 167 | 100% | 112 | 5,867x | $0.131 |
A filter earns its place by cutting bets faster than it cuts
winners — "keep" is the share of the cohort's 167 big winners it retained; a filter that
boosts EV but drops the monsters is a trap. Green EV clears the cost line ($2.21).
ORACLE = needs future knowledge, ceiling only. ONE-TOKEN = result rides on a single coin.
Race totals — today (UTC)
GRAD-T50
-23.9%
$197 in → $150 out · 89 bets
F30-T50
-38.1%
$179 in → $111 out · 81 bets
GRAD-T25
-33.3%
$197 in → $131 out · 89 bets
F30-T25
-35.1%
$179 in → $116 out · 81 bets
HOURLY-HH
-20.2%
$409 in → $326 out · 185 bets
F30-HH
-28.3%
$376 in → $269 out · 170 bets
Race totals — cumulative per book
GRAD-T50
+558.1%
$1,145 in → $7,535 out · 518 bets
F30-T50
+636.9%
$1,008 in → $7,426 out · 456 bets
GRAD-T25
+640.6%
$1,145 in → $8,478 out · 518 bets
F30-T25
+729.6%
$1,008 in → $8,360 out · 456 bets
HOURLY-HH
+271.8%
$2,254 in → $8,383 out · 1,020 bets
F30-HH
+312.7%
$1,980 in → $8,172 out · 896 bets
Strategy race — two books, same store, settled identically
GRAD-T50 — grad entry; exit -50% trailing stop
+558.1%
518 bets · $1,145 deployed · $7,535 back · 163 big winners · top-1 78%
| block (UTC) | bets | in | out | ROI |
|---|
| 07-25 08–12h | 87 | $192 | $1,143 | +494.3% |
| 07-25 12–16h | 125 | $276 | $88 | -68.2% |
| 07-25 16–20h | 118 | $261 | $6,006 | +2203.1% |
| 07-25 20–24h | 99 | $219 | $148 | -32.5% |
| 07-26 00–04h | 89 | $197 | $150 | -23.9% |
| total | 518 | $1,145 | $7,535 | +558.1% |
GRAD-T25 — grad entry; exit -25% trailing stop
+640.6%
518 bets · $1,145 deployed · $8,478 back · 163 big winners · top-1 88%
| block (UTC) | bets | in | out | ROI |
|---|
| 07-25 08–12h | 87 | $192 | $401 | +108.5% |
| 07-25 12–16h | 125 | $276 | $128 | -53.5% |
| 07-25 16–20h | 118 | $261 | $7,639 | +2829.0% |
| 07-25 20–24h | 99 | $219 | $179 | -18.2% |
| 07-26 00–04h | 89 | $197 | $131 | -33.3% |
| total | 518 | $1,145 | $8,478 | +640.6% |
HOURLY-HH — grad entry +$2 every hour a new high prints; -50% stop
+271.8%
1,020 bets · $2,254 deployed · $8,383 back · 163 big winners · top-1 70%
| block (UTC) | bets | in | out | ROI |
|---|
| 07-25 08–12h | 142 | $314 | $1,285 | +309.5% |
| 07-25 12–16h | 219 | $484 | $255 | -47.4% |
| 07-25 16–20h | 249 | $550 | $6,156 | +1018.6% |
| 07-25 20–24h | 225 | $497 | $361 | -27.5% |
| 07-26 00–04h | 185 | $409 | $326 | -20.2% |
| total | 1,020 | $2,254 | $8,383 | +271.8% |
F30-T50 — fast graduates (<30min) only; -50% trailing stop
+636.9%
456 bets · $1,008 deployed · $7,426 back · 162 big winners · top-1 79%
| block (UTC) | bets | in | out | ROI |
|---|
| 07-25 08–12h | 80 | $177 | $1,136 | +542.3% |
| 07-25 12–16h | 108 | $239 | $74 | -68.8% |
| 07-25 16–20h | 103 | $228 | $5,981 | +2527.5% |
| 07-25 20–24h | 84 | $186 | $124 | -33.2% |
| 07-26 00–04h | 81 | $179 | $111 | -38.1% |
| total | 456 | $1,008 | $7,426 | +636.9% |
F30-T25 — fast graduates (<30min) only; -25% trailing stop
+729.6%
456 bets · $1,008 deployed · $8,360 back · 162 big winners · top-1 90%
| block (UTC) | bets | in | out | ROI |
|---|
| 07-25 08–12h | 80 | $177 | $378 | +114.0% |
| 07-25 12–16h | 108 | $239 | $109 | -54.3% |
| 07-25 16–20h | 103 | $228 | $7,609 | +3242.6% |
| 07-25 20–24h | 84 | $186 | $147 | -20.6% |
| 07-26 00–04h | 81 | $179 | $116 | -35.1% |
| total | 456 | $1,008 | $8,360 | +729.6% |
F30-HH — fast graduates; +$2 hourly on new highs; -50% stop
+312.7%
896 bets · $1,980 deployed · $8,172 back · 162 big winners · top-1 72%
| block (UTC) | bets | in | out | ROI |
|---|
| 07-25 08–12h | 131 | $290 | $1,272 | +339.4% |
| 07-25 12–16h | 183 | $404 | $215 | -47.0% |
| 07-25 16–20h | 218 | $482 | $6,105 | +1167.1% |
| 07-25 20–24h | 194 | $429 | $311 | -27.5% |
| 07-26 00–04h | 170 | $376 | $269 | -28.3% |
| total | 896 | $1,980 | $8,172 | +312.7% |
MONSTER: $2 at graduation, +$2 at +24h/+72h only on higher highs; ruggers and serial-dud creators cut; exit −50% trailing stop, filled at the breaching quote. MONSTER-T25: same book, −25% stop. HOURLY-HH: +$2 every hour that prints a new high (max 48 adds), −50% stop. Open tranches mark to the last quote; daily rows accrue.
Staged entries — pyramid tickets into coins that keep proving themselves
| plan | bets | deployed | returned | ROI | winners held |
|---|
Instead of one ticket at mint, tickets are added as a coin
passes survival gates: graduation, then still-grinding a day later (≥$60k, within 50% of its high,
live quote), then again at day 3. Winners grind for weeks — persistence is the signal. Gate tranches
activate once coins age past each gate; each tranche settles at its own entry price.
Predictions
None yet — deliberately.
Predictions start publishing here when a filter stack clears
the cost line over a multi-week window with a sample no single coin dominates. Current best honest
candidate: buy at graduation — keeps ~93% of big winners in ~3% of the bets and sits above
cost — with cheap pre-screens (early-buyer count) that so far cut over half the bets while keeping
every winner. Until then this page reports measurements, not tips.