Meme-coin lottery — forward testPAPER ONLY

Strategy under test: many small bets, paid for by the rare monster. A win rate as low as 1% is fine — at $2.25 a bet, one true 1000x ($2.1M market cap from a ~$2.1k launch) returns roughly $1,900 before depth caps and carries ~859 losers on its back. Stakes: pump $2, every other venue $5; every entry pays constant-product impact against its entry pool. Everything below is measured through that lens: keep the future monsters in the net, cut everything else. No real money. Built 2026-07-27 10:40 UTC.
mint firehose: ok · 2s ago price marks: ok · 0s ago holder snapshots: ok · 1s ago ·

Collection — 2.1 days of continuous capture

mints tracked
70,649
41,763 in 24h
graduations
2,693
1,533 in 24h

Race totals — today (UTC)

MONSTER-HOLD
-45.3%
$113 in · portfolio $62 · 50 bets
pump −$51
DAY-1H TOP PICKS
+5.6%
$169 in → $178 out · 32 bets
dyorswap-robinhood −$2 · pumpswap +$4 · uniswap-v3-robinhood +$10 · uniswap-v4-robinhood −$3
1H-uniswap-v3-robinhood
+60.7%
$16 in → $25 out · 3 bets
uniswap-v3-robinhood +$10
1H-pumpswap
+3.2%
$132 in → $136 out · 25 bets
pumpswap +$4
1H-uniswap-v4-robinhood
-17.9%
$16 in → $13 out · 3 bets
uniswap-v4-robinhood −$3
1H-dyorswap-robinhood
-30.3%
$5 in → $4 out · 1 bets
dyorswap-robinhood −$2
1H-orca
-7.8%
$16 in → $15 out · 3 bets
orca −$1

Race totals — cumulative per book

MONSTER-HOLD
-70.8%
$1,509 in · portfolio $441 · 670 bets
DAY-1H TOP PICKS
+5.6%
$169 in → $178 out · 32 bets
1H-uniswap-v3-robinhood
+9.6%
$148 in → $162 out · 28 bets
1H-pumpswap
+6.5%
$491 in → $523 out · 93 bets
1H-uniswap-v4-robinhood
-0.9%
$95 in → $94 out · 18 bets
1H-dyorswap-robinhood
+125.7%
$26 in → $60 out · 5 bets
1H-orca
-8.1%
$79 in → $73 out · 15 bets

Entry drift — could we fill at our quoted entries?

graduation entries measured
8,243
median next-quote drift
+0.0%
p25 +0.0% · p75 +0.0%
moved >10% against us
16%
median quote gap 1247s
Drift between our entry quote and the next quote — the realistic band a ~1-minute-latency fill lands in. Price impact at $2 size is negligible (~0.003% into a $60k pool); timing volatility is the whole story. We hold rather than snipe, so entry drift mostly shifts the base, not the thesis.

Race totals — by mint source

sourceMONSTER-HOLDDAY-1H TOP PICKS1H-uniswap-v3-robinhood1H-pumpswap1H-uniswap-v4-robinhood1H-dyorswap-robinhood1H-orca
dyorswap-robinhood-30% ($-2)+126% ($33)
orca-8% ($-6)
pump-71% ($-1,068)
pumpswap+3% ($4)+6% ($32)
uniswap-v3-robinhood+61% ($10)+10% ($14)
uniswap-v4-robinhood-18% ($-3)-1% ($-1)
Each cell: ROI (net $) for that book's tranches on coins from that source. Anonymous pool births (the GeckoTerminal catcher) are listed by their birth AMM — fluxbeam, pumpswap, uniswap-*, orca — where 'pumpswap' means births the WS mint stream missed, distinct from the 'pump' venue.

Strategy race — two books, same store, settled identically

MONSTER-HOLD — pump graduations, $2 lottery tickets; never sold — depth-capped mark-to-market
-70.8%
670 bets · $1,509 deployed · $441 portfolio value · 147 big winners · top-1 24%
session (UTC)betsinvalueROI
07-25 EU71$160$4-97.3%
pump −$156 (71b)
07-25 US152$342$30-91.2%
pump −$312 (152b)
07-25 ASIA112$252$9-96.5%
pump −$243 (112b)
07-26 EU106$239$20-91.8%
pump −$219 (106b)
07-26 US99$223$142-36.2%
pump −$81 (99b)
07-26 ASIA80$180$174-3.2%
pump −$6 (80b)
07-27 EU50$113$62-45.3%
pump −$51 (50b)
total670$1,509$441-70.8%
DAY-1H TOP PICKS — yesterday's profitable sources only, EU+US sessions; sell everything 1h after entry — the basket book
+5.6%
32 bets · $169 deployed · $178 back · 1 big winners · top-1 8%
session (UTC)betsinoutROI
07-27 EU32$169$178+5.6%
dyorswap-robinhood −$2 (1b) · pumpswap +$4 (25b) · uniswap-v3-robinhood +$10 (3b) · uniswap-v4-robinhood −$3 (3b)
total32$169$178+5.6%
1H-uniswap-v3-robinhood — uniswap-v3-robinhood births; sell at 1h (EU+US)
+9.6%
28 bets · $148 deployed · $162 back · 4 big winners · top-1 20%
session (UTC)betsinoutROI
07-26 EU8$42$39-8.0%
uniswap-v3-robinhood −$3 (8b)
07-26 US17$90$98+8.9%
uniswap-v3-robinhood +$8 (17b)
07-27 EU3$16$25+60.7%
uniswap-v3-robinhood +$10 (3b)
total28$148$162+9.6%
1H-pumpswap — pumpswap births; sell at 1h (EU+US)
+6.5%
93 bets · $491 deployed · $523 back · 21 big winners · top-1 11%
session (UTC)betsinoutROI
07-26 EU30$158$225+42.2%
pumpswap +$67 (30b)
07-26 US38$201$161-19.7%
pumpswap −$39 (38b)
07-27 EU25$132$136+3.2%
pumpswap +$4 (25b)
total93$491$523+6.5%
1H-uniswap-v4-robinhood — uniswap-v4-robinhood births; sell at 1h (EU+US)
-0.9%
18 bets · $95 deployed · $94 back · 4 big winners · top-1 10%
session (UTC)betsinoutROI
07-26 EU6$32$34+7.8%
uniswap-v4-robinhood +$2 (6b)
07-26 US9$48$47-1.1%
uniswap-v4-robinhood −$1 (9b)
07-27 EU3$16$13-17.9%
uniswap-v4-robinhood −$3 (3b)
total18$95$94-0.9%
1H-dyorswap-robinhood — dyorswap-robinhood births; sell at 1h (EU+US)
+125.7%
5 bets · $26 deployed · $60 back · 1 big winners · top-1 72%
session (UTC)betsinoutROI
07-26 US4$21$56+164.7%
dyorswap-robinhood +$35 (4b)
07-27 EU1$5$4-30.3%
dyorswap-robinhood −$2 (1b)
total5$26$60+125.7%
1H-orca — orca births; sell at 1h (EU+US)
-8.1%
15 bets · $79 deployed · $73 back · 0 big winners · top-1 7%
session (UTC)betsinoutROI
07-26 EU7$37$34-8.2%
orca −$3 (7b)
07-26 US5$26$24-8.1%
orca −$2 (5b)
07-27 EU3$16$15-7.8%
orca −$1 (3b)
total15$79$73-8.1%
MONSTER-HOLD, the DAY-1H TOP PICKS basket (each day trades only the sources whose 1H book was profitable the PREVIOUS UTC day — no history, no bet), and one tracking box per non-pump birth source (auto-enrolled at 20+ graduations, ≥5 gate-passing bets) running the sell-at-1h rule. Daytrading books trade EU+US sessions only; ASIA (22–06 UTC) is logged but not paper-traded. MONSTER-HOLD: $2 lottery tickets on every pump.fun graduation with ≥$5k of sane pool depth, never sold — open positions valued at the depth-capped last quote, drained pools and rugs at zero. The tail thesis in its purest form: monsters take 19–140 days, so this box is judged in weeks. The DAY exit research (timed sells, targets, per-source books) lives in exits.py and can rejoin the race any time. The grey sub-line under each 4h block splits net by mint source.

Filter scoreboard — measured over the traded universe only (1,005 qualifying graduations)

filterdecidesbetsrug% wins keptkeepbets/winbestEV
replies_gt3thinat_10m30.0%11%31x$0.717
grind_24hthinat_24h1833.3%65%33x$0.421
green5at_5m1470.0%4725%339x$1.376
relaunch_of_winat_mint2280.0%7137%315x$0.437
uri_recycledat_mint2500.0%7338%315x$0.484
cr_true_firstat_mint4660.0%11359%4121x$1.106
grad_firstat_migration4660.0%11359%472x$0.593
cr_prior_ath100kat_mint1060.0%2413%4106x$2.230
vol5_gt1kat_5m79812.0%17894%4216x$1.318
buy_pressure5at_5m49310.1%10656%532x$0.723
dev_share_lt2at_mint73318.4%15079%5216x$0.953
dev_share_lt5at_mint77317.5%15682%5216x$1.030
buyers5_gt10at_5m91813.8%18497%5216x$1.329
grad_confirm5at_mig593714.4%18798%5106x$0.836
baselineat_mint1,00513.4%190100%5216x$1.510
A filter earns its place by cutting bets faster than it cuts winners — "keep" is the share of the cohort's 190 big winners it retained; a filter that boosts EV but drops the monsters is a trap. Green EV clears the cost line ($2.25 at the $2 reference stake — race stakes differ per venue). ORACLE = needs future knowledge, ceiling only. ONE-TOKEN = result rides on a single coin.

Research loop — nightly re-grade of every exit and signal

2026-07-27: TIME-1h(EU+US) +38.9% n=261 | MONSTER -71.5% | winners 321 rugs 840

Live pilot — real fills vs paper (fluxbeam 1H)

Ledger armed, no fills yet. The execution bot records every real fill via ledger.py record; live fill drift vs paper marks appears here from the first buy.

Winners study — what the $200k+ class looked like at launch

winners crawled
425
crawl 48h old
first-ever launches
86%
rotation-blind — see note
graduated
55%
median mint→ATH
6d
48% took >7 days
ATH tiernmedian days to ATHfirst-launch creators
$200k–1M10519d75%
$1M–10M9870d83%
>$10M73140d79%
One-shot crawl of pump.fun's listing, survivor-biased by design (listed by CURRENT mcap, so collapsed winners are invisible). ATHs are pump-tracker prints with no realizability leg — wash-printable, and one confirmed $60M farm print is in the set. "First-launch" cannot see wallet rotation (URI-lineage lower bound: 2 of 365 rotated). The duration findings are robust to both: monsters grind for weeks, they do not spike.

Staged entries — pyramid tickets into coins that keep proving themselves

planbetsdeployedreturnedROIwinners held
Instead of one ticket at mint, tickets are added as a coin passes survival gates: graduation, then still-grinding a day later (≥$60k, within 50% of its high, live quote), then again at day 3. Winners grind for weeks — persistence is the signal. Gate tranches activate once coins age past each gate; each tranche settles at its own entry price.

Predictions

None yet — deliberately.
Predictions start publishing here when a strategy clears its cost line over a multi-week window with a sample no single coin dominates. Status after the 2026-07-26/27 audits: no filter currently clears cost on the honest scoreboard (the early "graduation entry clears cost" reading was clone-farm wash-print inflation, since guarded away). The live candidates being measured instead: the MONSTER lottery (needs weeks by construction) and the fluxbeam 1-hour pop from the exit grid (+69% on 134 bets, one regime — an execution-truth pilot is planned, not a tip). This page reports measurements, not tips.