Meme-coin lottery — forward testPAPER ONLY

Strategy under test: many small bets, paid for by the rare monster. A win rate as low as 1% is fine — at $2.21 a bet, one true 1000x ($2.1M market cap from a ~$2.1k launch) returns roughly $1,900 before depth caps and carries ~859 losers on its back. Stakes: pump $2, every other venue $25; every entry pays constant-product impact against its entry pool. Everything below is measured through that lens: keep the future monsters in the net, cut everything else. No real money. Updated 2026-07-26 23:03 UTC · auto-refreshes every 5 min.
mint firehose: ok · 2s ago price marks: ok · 1s ago holder snapshots: ok · 0s ago

Collection — 39.0 hours of continuous capture

mints tracked
52,410
35,738 in 24h
graduations
2,026
1,331 in 24h

Race totals — today (UTC)

MONSTER-HOLD
-52.7%
$655 in · portfolio $309 · 296 bets
pump −$345
DAY-T50
-16.6%
$5,775 in → $4,817 out · 227 bets
gt:robinhood −$264 · gt:solana −$667 · pons −$26
DAY-T25
-11.8%
$5,775 in → $5,095 out · 227 bets
gt:robinhood −$125 · gt:solana −$539 · pons −$17
DAY-HOLD
-20.0%
$5,775 in · portfolio $4,621 · 227 bets
gt:robinhood −$291 · gt:solana −$831 · pons −$33

Race totals — cumulative per book

MONSTER-HOLD
-70.6%
$1,218 in · portfolio $358 · 551 bets
DAY-T50
-16.6%
$5,775 in → $4,817 out · 227 bets
DAY-T25
-11.8%
$5,775 in → $5,095 out · 227 bets
DAY-HOLD
-20.0%
$5,775 in · portfolio $4,621 · 227 bets

Entry drift — could we fill at our quoted entries?

graduation entries measured
5,081
median next-quote drift
+0.0%
p25 +0.0% · p75 +1.7%
moved >10% against us
19%
median quote gap 1001s
Drift between our entry quote and the next quote — the realistic band a ~1-minute-latency fill lands in. Price impact at $2 size is negligible (~0.003% into a $60k pool); timing volatility is the whole story. We hold rather than snipe, so entry drift mostly shifts the base, not the thesis.

Race totals — by mint source

sourceMONSTER-HOLDDAY-T50DAY-T25DAY-HOLD
gt:robinhood-23% ($-264)-11% ($-125)-25% ($-291)
gt:solana-15% ($-667)-12% ($-539)-18% ($-831)
pons-52% ($-26)-33% ($-17)-65% ($-33)
pump-71% ($-860)
Each cell: ROI (net $) for that book's tranches on coins from that source. gt:* rows are pool-birth entries from the GeckoTerminal catcher.

Strategy race — two books, same store, settled identically

MONSTER-HOLD — pump graduations, $2 lottery tickets; never sold — depth-capped mark-to-market
-70.6%
551 bets · $1,218 deployed · $358 portfolio value · 125 big winners · top-1 41%
block (UTC)betsinvalueROI
07-25 08–12h30$66$3-96.2%
pump −$64 (30b)
07-25 12–16h88$195$6-97.0%
pump −$189 (88b)
07-25 16–20h77$170$21-87.6%
pump −$149 (77b)
07-25 20–24h60$133$19-85.5%
pump −$113 (60b)
07-26 00–04h57$126$7-94.8%
pump −$119 (57b)
07-26 04–08h49$108$2-97.8%
pump −$106 (49b)
07-26 08–12h53$117$7-94.1%
pump −$110 (53b)
07-26 12–16h50$111$66-40.3%
pump −$45 (50b)
07-26 16–20h51$113$173+53.2%
pump +$60 (51b)
07-26 20–24h36$80$55-31.3%
pump −$25 (36b)
total551$1,218$358-70.6%
DAY-T50 — non-pump venues; -50% trailing stop
-16.6%
227 bets · $5,775 deployed · $4,817 back · 30 big winners · top-1 2%
block (UTC)betsinoutROI
07-26 04–08h42$1,069$881-17.5%
gt:robinhood +$62 (3b) · gt:solana −$249 (39b)
07-26 08–12h49$1,247$1,119-10.2%
gt:robinhood −$106 (6b) · gt:solana −$21 (43b)
07-26 12–16h57$1,450$1,316-9.3%
gt:robinhood −$48 (16b) · gt:solana −$69 (40b) · pons −$18 (1b)
07-26 16–20h50$1,272$907-28.7%
gt:robinhood −$103 (15b) · gt:solana −$254 (34b) · pons −$8 (1b)
07-26 20–24h29$738$594-19.5%
gt:robinhood −$69 (5b) · gt:solana −$74 (24b)
total227$5,775$4,817-16.6%
DAY-T25 — non-pump venues; -25% trailing stop
-11.8%
227 bets · $5,775 deployed · $5,095 back · 30 big winners · top-1 2%
block (UTC)betsinoutROI
07-26 04–08h42$1,069$928-13.1%
gt:robinhood +$66 (3b) · gt:solana −$206 (39b)
07-26 08–12h49$1,247$1,161-6.8%
gt:robinhood −$81 (6b) · gt:solana −$4 (43b)
07-26 12–16h57$1,450$1,341-7.5%
gt:robinhood −$32 (16b) · gt:solana −$69 (40b) · pons −$9 (1b)
07-26 16–20h50$1,272$1,031-19.0%
gt:robinhood −$27 (15b) · gt:solana −$207 (34b) · pons −$8 (1b)
07-26 20–24h29$738$634-14.1%
gt:robinhood −$51 (5b) · gt:solana −$53 (24b)
total227$5,775$5,095-11.8%
DAY-HOLD — non-pump venues; no exit — the bound the day exits must beat
-20.0%
227 bets · $5,775 deployed · $4,621 portfolio value · 30 big winners · top-1 2%
block (UTC)betsinvalueROI
07-26 04–08h42$1,069$894-16.4%
gt:robinhood +$90 (3b) · gt:solana −$265 (39b)
07-26 08–12h49$1,247$1,075-13.8%
gt:robinhood −$103 (6b) · gt:solana −$69 (43b)
07-26 12–16h57$1,450$1,228-15.3%
gt:robinhood −$76 (16b) · gt:solana −$124 (40b) · pons −$22 (1b)
07-26 16–20h50$1,272$840-34.0%
gt:robinhood −$124 (15b) · gt:solana −$297 (34b) · pons −$11 (1b)
07-26 20–24h29$738$584-20.9%
gt:robinhood −$78 (5b) · gt:solana −$76 (24b)
total227$5,775$4,621-20.0%
Two strategies, separated because they were always different games. MONSTER-HOLD: $2 lottery tickets on every pump.fun graduation with ≥$5k of sane pool depth, never sold — the tail thesis (monsters take 19–140 days), measured in weeks not hours. DAY-*: $25 positions on every non-pump graduation with ≥$50k of sane depth — fast-settling pool trades where the exit rule is the open question, so −50% / −25% trails race the never-sell bound. All entries pay constant-product impact; meteora is cut on both books; ruggers and serial-dud creators cut. The grey sub-line under each 4h block splits that block's net by mint source.

Filter scoreboard — ranked by bets per kept big winner

filterdecidesbetsrug% wins keptkeepbets/winbestEV
grad_grind24thinat_mig2440.0%33%11x$0.810
grind_24hthinat_24h70.0%23%41x$0.745
relaunch_of_winat_mint2680.4%6325%415x$0.440
grad_firstat_migration4940.2%9337%572x$0.657
grad_provenat_migration4331.8%2911%1579x$0.804
uri_recycledat_mint1,1030.0%6325%1815x$0.140
buy_pressure5at_5m2,2376.3%11746%1940x$0.337
grad_confirm5at_mig55,0469.7%24094%2174,314,339,400,448,736x$0.536
grad_fast30at_migration5,0329.6%23894%2174,314,339,400,448,736x$0.495
grad_entryat_migration5,2149.4%24396%2174,314,339,400,448,736x$0.508
grad_oracleORACLEORACLE5,2169.4%24396%2174,314,339,400,448,736x$0.702
green5at_5m1,1250.2%5020%2239x$0.407
vol5_gt1kat_5m5,9607.6%23191%2614,677x$0.374
buyers5_gt10at_5m7,4146.7%23794%3114,677x$0.358
baselineat_mint45,4461.3%253100%18074,314,339,400,448,736x$0.200
A filter earns its place by cutting bets faster than it cuts winners — "keep" is the share of the cohort's 253 big winners it retained; a filter that boosts EV but drops the monsters is a trap. Green EV clears the cost line ($2.21 at the $2 reference stake — race stakes differ per venue). ORACLE = needs future knowledge, ceiling only. ONE-TOKEN = result rides on a single coin.

Winners study — what the $200k+ class looked like at launch

winners crawled
425
crawl 36h old
first-ever launches
86%
rotation-blind — see note
graduated
55%
median mint→ATH
6d
48% took >7 days
ATH tiernmedian days to ATHfirst-launch creators
$200k–1M10519d75%
$1M–10M9870d83%
>$10M73140d79%
One-shot crawl of pump.fun's listing, survivor-biased by design (listed by CURRENT mcap, so collapsed winners are invisible). ATHs are pump-tracker prints with no realizability leg — wash-printable, and one confirmed $60M farm print is in the set. "First-launch" cannot see wallet rotation (URI-lineage lower bound: 2 of 365 rotated). The duration findings are robust to both: monsters grind for weeks, they do not spike.

Staged entries — pyramid tickets into coins that keep proving themselves

planbetsdeployedreturnedROIwinners held
Instead of one ticket at mint, tickets are added as a coin passes survival gates: graduation, then still-grinding a day later (≥$60k, within 50% of its high, live quote), then again at day 3. Winners grind for weeks — persistence is the signal. Gate tranches activate once coins age past each gate; each tranche settles at its own entry price.

Predictions

None yet — deliberately.
Predictions start publishing here when a filter stack clears the cost line over a multi-week window with a sample no single coin dominates. Current best honest candidate: buy at graduation — keeps ~93% of big winners in ~3% of the bets and sits above cost — with cheap pre-screens (early-buyer count) that so far cut over half the bets while keeping every winner. Until then this page reports measurements, not tips.