Meme-coin lottery — forward testPAPER ONLY
Strategy under test: many small bets, paid for by the rare monster.
A win rate as low as 1% is fine — at $2.21 a bet, one true 1000x
($2.1M market cap from a ~$2.1k launch) returns roughly
$1,900 before depth caps and carries ~859
losers on its back. Stakes: pump $2, every other venue $25; every entry pays constant-product
impact against its entry pool. Everything below is measured through that lens:
keep the future monsters in the net, cut everything else.
No real money. Updated 2026-07-26 23:03 UTC · auto-refreshes every 5 min.
mint firehose: ok · 2s ago
price marks: ok · 1s ago
holder snapshots: ok · 0s ago
Collection — 39.0 hours of continuous capture
mints tracked
52,410
35,738 in 24h
graduations
2,026
1,331 in 24h
Race totals — today (UTC)
MONSTER-HOLD
-52.7%
$655 in · portfolio $309 · 296 bets
pump −$345
DAY-T50
-16.6%
$5,775 in → $4,817 out · 227 bets
gt:robinhood −$264 · gt:solana −$667 · pons −$26
DAY-T25
-11.8%
$5,775 in → $5,095 out · 227 bets
gt:robinhood −$125 · gt:solana −$539 · pons −$17
DAY-HOLD
-20.0%
$5,775 in · portfolio $4,621 · 227 bets
gt:robinhood −$291 · gt:solana −$831 · pons −$33
Race totals — cumulative per book
MONSTER-HOLD
-70.6%
$1,218 in · portfolio $358 · 551 bets
DAY-T50
-16.6%
$5,775 in → $4,817 out · 227 bets
DAY-T25
-11.8%
$5,775 in → $5,095 out · 227 bets
DAY-HOLD
-20.0%
$5,775 in · portfolio $4,621 · 227 bets
Entry drift — could we fill at our quoted entries?
graduation entries measured
5,081
median next-quote drift
+0.0%
p25 +0.0% · p75 +1.7%
moved >10% against us
19%
median quote gap 1001s
Drift between our entry quote and the next quote — the realistic band a ~1-minute-latency fill lands in. Price impact at $2 size is negligible (~0.003% into a $60k pool); timing volatility is the whole story. We hold rather than snipe, so entry drift mostly shifts the base, not the thesis.
Race totals — by mint source
| source | MONSTER-HOLD | DAY-T50 | DAY-T25 | DAY-HOLD |
|---|
| gt:robinhood | — | -23% ($-264) | -11% ($-125) | -25% ($-291) |
| gt:solana | — | -15% ($-667) | -12% ($-539) | -18% ($-831) |
| pons | — | -52% ($-26) | -33% ($-17) | -65% ($-33) |
| pump | -71% ($-860) | — | — | — |
Each cell: ROI (net $) for that book's tranches on coins
from that source. gt:* rows are pool-birth entries from the GeckoTerminal catcher.
Strategy race — two books, same store, settled identically
MONSTER-HOLD — pump graduations, $2 lottery tickets; never sold — depth-capped mark-to-market
-70.6%
551 bets · $1,218 deployed · $358 portfolio value · 125 big winners · top-1 41%
| block (UTC) | bets | in | value | ROI |
|---|
| 07-25 08–12h | 30 | $66 | $3 | -96.2% |
| pump −$64 (30b) |
| 07-25 12–16h | 88 | $195 | $6 | -97.0% |
| pump −$189 (88b) |
| 07-25 16–20h | 77 | $170 | $21 | -87.6% |
| pump −$149 (77b) |
| 07-25 20–24h | 60 | $133 | $19 | -85.5% |
| pump −$113 (60b) |
| 07-26 00–04h | 57 | $126 | $7 | -94.8% |
| pump −$119 (57b) |
| 07-26 04–08h | 49 | $108 | $2 | -97.8% |
| pump −$106 (49b) |
| 07-26 08–12h | 53 | $117 | $7 | -94.1% |
| pump −$110 (53b) |
| 07-26 12–16h | 50 | $111 | $66 | -40.3% |
| pump −$45 (50b) |
| 07-26 16–20h | 51 | $113 | $173 | +53.2% |
| pump +$60 (51b) |
| 07-26 20–24h | 36 | $80 | $55 | -31.3% |
| pump −$25 (36b) |
| total | 551 | $1,218 | $358 | -70.6% |
DAY-T50 — non-pump venues; -50% trailing stop
-16.6%
227 bets · $5,775 deployed · $4,817 back · 30 big winners · top-1 2%
| block (UTC) | bets | in | out | ROI |
|---|
| 07-26 04–08h | 42 | $1,069 | $881 | -17.5% |
| gt:robinhood +$62 (3b) · gt:solana −$249 (39b) |
| 07-26 08–12h | 49 | $1,247 | $1,119 | -10.2% |
| gt:robinhood −$106 (6b) · gt:solana −$21 (43b) |
| 07-26 12–16h | 57 | $1,450 | $1,316 | -9.3% |
| gt:robinhood −$48 (16b) · gt:solana −$69 (40b) · pons −$18 (1b) |
| 07-26 16–20h | 50 | $1,272 | $907 | -28.7% |
| gt:robinhood −$103 (15b) · gt:solana −$254 (34b) · pons −$8 (1b) |
| 07-26 20–24h | 29 | $738 | $594 | -19.5% |
| gt:robinhood −$69 (5b) · gt:solana −$74 (24b) |
| total | 227 | $5,775 | $4,817 | -16.6% |
DAY-T25 — non-pump venues; -25% trailing stop
-11.8%
227 bets · $5,775 deployed · $5,095 back · 30 big winners · top-1 2%
| block (UTC) | bets | in | out | ROI |
|---|
| 07-26 04–08h | 42 | $1,069 | $928 | -13.1% |
| gt:robinhood +$66 (3b) · gt:solana −$206 (39b) |
| 07-26 08–12h | 49 | $1,247 | $1,161 | -6.8% |
| gt:robinhood −$81 (6b) · gt:solana −$4 (43b) |
| 07-26 12–16h | 57 | $1,450 | $1,341 | -7.5% |
| gt:robinhood −$32 (16b) · gt:solana −$69 (40b) · pons −$9 (1b) |
| 07-26 16–20h | 50 | $1,272 | $1,031 | -19.0% |
| gt:robinhood −$27 (15b) · gt:solana −$207 (34b) · pons −$8 (1b) |
| 07-26 20–24h | 29 | $738 | $634 | -14.1% |
| gt:robinhood −$51 (5b) · gt:solana −$53 (24b) |
| total | 227 | $5,775 | $5,095 | -11.8% |
DAY-HOLD — non-pump venues; no exit — the bound the day exits must beat
-20.0%
227 bets · $5,775 deployed · $4,621 portfolio value · 30 big winners · top-1 2%
| block (UTC) | bets | in | value | ROI |
|---|
| 07-26 04–08h | 42 | $1,069 | $894 | -16.4% |
| gt:robinhood +$90 (3b) · gt:solana −$265 (39b) |
| 07-26 08–12h | 49 | $1,247 | $1,075 | -13.8% |
| gt:robinhood −$103 (6b) · gt:solana −$69 (43b) |
| 07-26 12–16h | 57 | $1,450 | $1,228 | -15.3% |
| gt:robinhood −$76 (16b) · gt:solana −$124 (40b) · pons −$22 (1b) |
| 07-26 16–20h | 50 | $1,272 | $840 | -34.0% |
| gt:robinhood −$124 (15b) · gt:solana −$297 (34b) · pons −$11 (1b) |
| 07-26 20–24h | 29 | $738 | $584 | -20.9% |
| gt:robinhood −$78 (5b) · gt:solana −$76 (24b) |
| total | 227 | $5,775 | $4,621 | -20.0% |
Two strategies, separated because they were always different games. MONSTER-HOLD: $2 lottery tickets on every pump.fun graduation with ≥$5k of sane pool depth, never sold — the tail thesis (monsters take 19–140 days), measured in weeks not hours. DAY-*: $25 positions on every non-pump graduation with ≥$50k of sane depth — fast-settling pool trades where the exit rule is the open question, so −50% / −25% trails race the never-sell bound. All entries pay constant-product impact; meteora is cut on both books; ruggers and serial-dud creators cut. The grey sub-line under each 4h block splits that block's net by mint source.
Filter scoreboard — ranked by bets per kept big winner
| filter | decides | bets | rug% |
wins kept | keep | bets/win | best | EV |
|---|
| grad_grind24thin | at_mig24 | 4 | 0.0% | 3 | 3% | 1 | 1x | $0.810 |
| grind_24hthin | at_24h | 7 | 0.0% | 2 | 3% | 4 | 1x | $0.745 |
| relaunch_of_win | at_mint | 268 | 0.4% | 63 | 25% | 4 | 15x | $0.440 |
| grad_first | at_migration | 494 | 0.2% | 93 | 37% | 5 | 72x | $0.657 |
| grad_proven | at_migration | 433 | 1.8% | 29 | 11% | 15 | 79x | $0.804 |
| uri_recycled | at_mint | 1,103 | 0.0% | 63 | 25% | 18 | 15x | $0.140 |
| buy_pressure5 | at_5m | 2,237 | 6.3% | 117 | 46% | 19 | 40x | $0.337 |
| grad_confirm5 | at_mig5 | 5,046 | 9.7% | 240 | 94% | 21 | 74,314,339,400,448,736x | $0.536 |
| grad_fast30 | at_migration | 5,032 | 9.6% | 238 | 94% | 21 | 74,314,339,400,448,736x | $0.495 |
| grad_entry | at_migration | 5,214 | 9.4% | 243 | 96% | 21 | 74,314,339,400,448,736x | $0.508 |
| grad_oracleORACLE | ORACLE | 5,216 | 9.4% | 243 | 96% | 21 | 74,314,339,400,448,736x | $0.702 |
| green5 | at_5m | 1,125 | 0.2% | 50 | 20% | 22 | 39x | $0.407 |
| vol5_gt1k | at_5m | 5,960 | 7.6% | 231 | 91% | 26 | 14,677x | $0.374 |
| buyers5_gt10 | at_5m | 7,414 | 6.7% | 237 | 94% | 31 | 14,677x | $0.358 |
| baseline | at_mint | 45,446 | 1.3% | 253 | 100% | 180 | 74,314,339,400,448,736x | $0.200 |
A filter earns its place by cutting bets faster than it cuts
winners — "keep" is the share of the cohort's 253 big winners it retained; a filter that
boosts EV but drops the monsters is a trap. Green EV clears the cost line ($2.21 at the $2 reference stake — race stakes differ per venue).
ORACLE = needs future knowledge, ceiling only. ONE-TOKEN = result rides on a single coin.
Winners study — what the $200k+ class looked like at launch
winners crawled
425
crawl 36h old
first-ever launches
86%
rotation-blind — see note
median mint→ATH
6d
48% took >7 days
| ATH tier | n | median days to ATH | first-launch creators |
|---|
| $200k–1M | 105 | 19d | 75% |
| $1M–10M | 98 | 70d | 83% |
| >$10M | 73 | 140d | 79% |
One-shot crawl of pump.fun's listing, survivor-biased by
design (listed by CURRENT mcap, so collapsed winners are invisible). ATHs are pump-tracker prints
with no realizability leg — wash-printable, and one confirmed $60M farm print is in the set.
"First-launch" cannot see wallet rotation (URI-lineage lower bound: 2 of 365 rotated).
The duration findings are robust to both: monsters grind for weeks, they do not spike.
Staged entries — pyramid tickets into coins that keep proving themselves
| plan | bets | deployed | returned | ROI | winners held |
|---|
Instead of one ticket at mint, tickets are added as a coin
passes survival gates: graduation, then still-grinding a day later (≥$60k, within 50% of its high,
live quote), then again at day 3. Winners grind for weeks — persistence is the signal. Gate tranches
activate once coins age past each gate; each tranche settles at its own entry price.
Predictions
None yet — deliberately.
Predictions start publishing here when a filter stack clears
the cost line over a multi-week window with a sample no single coin dominates. Current best honest
candidate: buy at graduation — keeps ~93% of big winners in ~3% of the bets and sits above
cost — with cheap pre-screens (early-buyer count) that so far cut over half the bets while keeping
every winner. Until then this page reports measurements, not tips.