Meme-coin lottery — forward testPAPER ONLY

Strategy under test: many small bets, paid for by the rare monster. A win rate as low as 1% is fine — at $2.21 a bet, one true 1000x ($2.1M market cap from a ~$2.1k launch) returns roughly $1,900 before depth caps and carries ~859 losers on its back. Stakes: pump $2, every other venue $25; every entry pays constant-product impact against its entry pool. Everything below is measured through that lens: keep the future monsters in the net, cut everything else. No real money. Updated 2026-07-27 02:29 UTC · auto-refreshes every 5 min.
mint firehose: ok · 2s ago price marks: ok · 1s ago holder snapshots: ok · 2s ago

Collection — 42.5 hours of continuous capture

mints tracked
58,115
37,252 in 24h
graduations
2,265
1,449 in 24h

Race totals — today (UTC)

MONSTER-HOLD
-19.4%
$51 in · portfolio $41 · 23 bets
pump −$10
DAY-T50
-9.4%
$509 in → $461 out · 20 bets
gt:robinhood −$13 · gt:solana −$34
DAY-T25
-10.1%
$509 in → $457 out · 20 bets
gt:robinhood −$17 · gt:solana −$34
DAY-HOLD
-9.4%
$509 in · portfolio $461 · 20 bets
gt:robinhood −$13 · gt:solana −$34

Race totals — cumulative per book

MONSTER-HOLD
-71.9%
$1,297 in · portfolio $364 · 586 bets
DAY-T50
-18.8%
$6,692 in → $5,435 out · 263 bets
DAY-T25
-14.9%
$6,692 in → $5,694 out · 263 bets
DAY-HOLD
-24.0%
$6,692 in · portfolio $5,089 · 263 bets

Entry drift — could we fill at our quoted entries?

graduation entries measured
6,086
median next-quote drift
+0.0%
p25 +0.0% · p75 +0.0%
moved >10% against us
17%
median quote gap 1102s
Drift between our entry quote and the next quote — the realistic band a ~1-minute-latency fill lands in. Price impact at $2 size is negligible (~0.003% into a $60k pool); timing volatility is the whole story. We hold rather than snipe, so entry drift mostly shifts the base, not the thesis.

Race totals — by mint source

sourceMONSTER-HOLDDAY-T50DAY-T25DAY-HOLD
gt:robinhood-24% ($-338)-13% ($-191)-23% ($-334)
gt:solana-17% ($-893)-15% ($-790)-24% ($-1,231)
pons-52% ($-26)-33% ($-17)-74% ($-38)
pump-72% ($-933)
Each cell: ROI (net $) for that book's tranches on coins from that source. gt:* rows are pool-birth entries from the GeckoTerminal catcher.

Strategy race — two books, same store, settled identically

MONSTER-HOLD — pump graduations, $2 lottery tickets; never sold — depth-capped mark-to-market
-71.9%
586 bets · $1,297 deployed · $364 portfolio value · 134 big winners · top-1 34%
block (UTC)betsinvalueROI
07-25 08–12h30$66$3-96.2%
pump −$64 (30b)
07-25 12–16h88$195$6-97.0%
pump −$189 (88b)
07-25 16–20h77$170$25-85.6%
pump −$146 (77b)
07-25 20–24h60$133$17-87.4%
pump −$116 (60b)
07-26 00–04h57$126$6-95.4%
pump −$120 (57b)
07-26 04–08h49$108$2-98.1%
pump −$106 (49b)
07-26 08–12h53$117$6-94.5%
pump −$111 (53b)
07-26 12–16h50$111$71-35.7%
pump −$40 (50b)
07-26 16–20h51$113$145+28.1%
pump +$32 (51b)
07-26 20–24h48$106$44-59.0%
pump −$63 (48b)
07-27 00–04h23$51$41-19.4%
pump −$10 (23b)
total586$1,297$364-71.9%
DAY-T50 — non-pump venues; -50% trailing stop
-18.8%
263 bets · $6,692 deployed · $5,435 back · 36 big winners · top-1 3%
block (UTC)betsinoutROI
07-26 04–08h42$1,069$906-15.2%
gt:robinhood +$62 (3b) · gt:solana −$224 (39b)
07-26 08–12h49$1,247$1,142-8.4%
gt:robinhood −$112 (6b) · gt:solana +$7 (43b)
07-26 12–16h57$1,450$1,223-15.6%
gt:robinhood −$47 (16b) · gt:solana −$162 (40b) · pons −$18 (1b)
07-26 16–20h50$1,272$855-32.8%
gt:robinhood −$127 (15b) · gt:solana −$281 (34b) · pons −$8 (1b)
07-26 20–24h45$1,145$847-26.0%
gt:robinhood −$100 (9b) · gt:solana −$199 (36b)
07-27 00–04h20$509$461-9.4%
gt:robinhood −$13 (7b) · gt:solana −$34 (13b)
total263$6,692$5,435-18.8%
DAY-T25 — non-pump venues; -25% trailing stop
-14.9%
263 bets · $6,692 deployed · $5,694 back · 36 big winners · top-1 2%
block (UTC)betsinoutROI
07-26 04–08h42$1,069$928-13.1%
gt:robinhood +$66 (3b) · gt:solana −$206 (39b)
07-26 08–12h49$1,247$1,156-7.2%
gt:robinhood −$86 (6b) · gt:solana −$4 (43b)
07-26 12–16h57$1,450$1,270-12.4%
gt:robinhood −$31 (16b) · gt:solana −$140 (40b) · pons −$9 (1b)
07-26 16–20h50$1,272$994-21.9%
gt:robinhood −$52 (15b) · gt:solana −$220 (34b) · pons −$8 (1b)
07-26 20–24h45$1,145$888-22.4%
gt:robinhood −$71 (9b) · gt:solana −$186 (36b)
07-27 00–04h20$509$457-10.1%
gt:robinhood −$17 (7b) · gt:solana −$34 (13b)
total263$6,692$5,694-14.9%
DAY-HOLD — non-pump venues; no exit — the bound the day exits must beat
-24.0%
263 bets · $6,692 deployed · $5,089 portfolio value · 36 big winners · top-1 3%
block (UTC)betsinvalueROI
07-26 04–08h42$1,069$895-16.3%
gt:robinhood +$91 (3b) · gt:solana −$265 (39b)
07-26 08–12h49$1,247$1,072-14.0%
gt:robinhood −$106 (6b) · gt:solana −$68 (43b)
07-26 12–16h57$1,450$1,117-23.0%
gt:robinhood −$76 (16b) · gt:solana −$237 (40b) · pons −$20 (1b)
07-26 16–20h50$1,272$761-40.2%
gt:robinhood −$123 (15b) · gt:solana −$371 (34b) · pons −$17 (1b)
07-26 20–24h45$1,145$782-31.7%
gt:robinhood −$108 (9b) · gt:solana −$255 (36b)
07-27 00–04h20$509$461-9.4%
gt:robinhood −$13 (7b) · gt:solana −$34 (13b)
total263$6,692$5,089-24.0%
Two strategies, separated because they were always different games. MONSTER-HOLD: $2 lottery tickets on every pump.fun graduation with ≥$5k of sane pool depth, never sold — the tail thesis (monsters take 19–140 days), measured in weeks not hours. DAY-*: $25 positions on every non-pump graduation with ≥$50k of sane depth — fast-settling pool trades where the exit rule is the open question, so −50% / −25% trails race the never-sell bound. All entries pay constant-product impact; meteora is cut on both books; ruggers and serial-dud creators cut. The grey sub-line under each 4h block splits that block's net by mint source.

Filter scoreboard — ranked by bets per kept big winner

filterdecidesbetsrug% wins keptkeepbets/winbestEV
grad_grind24thinat_mig2460.0%45%22x$0.799
grind_24hthinat_24h110.0%34%41x$0.744
relaunch_of_winat_mint3050.3%6925%415x$0.423
grad_firstat_migration5830.2%10337%672x$0.648
grad_provenat_migration4801.9%2911%1779x$0.812
uri_recycledat_mint1,1690.0%7025%1715x$0.143
buy_pressure5at_5m2,3016.4%12545%18201,280x$0.337
green5at_5m1,1250.2%5018%2239x$0.406
grad_confirm5ONE-TOKENat_mig56,0699.1%26295%23946,861,039,266,400,128x$1.120
grad_fast30ONE-TOKENat_migration6,0389.1%26094%23946,861,039,266,400,128x$1.088
grad_entryONE-TOKENat_migration6,2378.9%26596%24946,861,039,266,400,128x$1.082
grad_oracleORACLEORACLE6,2428.9%26596%24946,861,039,266,400,128x$1.242
vol5_gt1kat_5m6,1158.2%24990%254,761x$0.376
buyers5_gt10at_5m7,5797.3%25693%304,761x$0.362
baselineat_mint50,8771.3%276100%184946,861,039,266,400,128x$0.274
A filter earns its place by cutting bets faster than it cuts winners — "keep" is the share of the cohort's 276 big winners it retained; a filter that boosts EV but drops the monsters is a trap. Green EV clears the cost line ($2.21 at the $2 reference stake — race stakes differ per venue). ORACLE = needs future knowledge, ceiling only. ONE-TOKEN = result rides on a single coin.

Winners study — what the $200k+ class looked like at launch

winners crawled
425
crawl 40h old
first-ever launches
86%
rotation-blind — see note
graduated
55%
median mint→ATH
6d
48% took >7 days
ATH tiernmedian days to ATHfirst-launch creators
$200k–1M10519d75%
$1M–10M9870d83%
>$10M73140d79%
One-shot crawl of pump.fun's listing, survivor-biased by design (listed by CURRENT mcap, so collapsed winners are invisible). ATHs are pump-tracker prints with no realizability leg — wash-printable, and one confirmed $60M farm print is in the set. "First-launch" cannot see wallet rotation (URI-lineage lower bound: 2 of 365 rotated). The duration findings are robust to both: monsters grind for weeks, they do not spike.

Staged entries — pyramid tickets into coins that keep proving themselves

planbetsdeployedreturnedROIwinners held
Instead of one ticket at mint, tickets are added as a coin passes survival gates: graduation, then still-grinding a day later (≥$60k, within 50% of its high, live quote), then again at day 3. Winners grind for weeks — persistence is the signal. Gate tranches activate once coins age past each gate; each tranche settles at its own entry price.

Predictions

None yet — deliberately.
Predictions start publishing here when a filter stack clears the cost line over a multi-week window with a sample no single coin dominates. Current best honest candidate: buy at graduation — keeps ~93% of big winners in ~3% of the bets and sits above cost — with cheap pre-screens (early-buyer count) that so far cut over half the bets while keeping every winner. Until then this page reports measurements, not tips.