Meme-coin lottery — forward testPAPER ONLY

Strategy under test: many small bets, paid for by the rare monster. A win rate as low as 1% is fine — at $2.25 a bet, one true 1000x ($2.1M market cap from a ~$2.1k launch) returns roughly $1,900 before depth caps and carries ~859 losers on its back. Stakes: pump $2, every other venue $5; every entry pays constant-product impact against its entry pool. Everything below is measured through that lens: keep the future monsters in the net, cut everything else. No real money · built 2026-07-27 20:39 UTC · now
mint firehose: ok · 3s ago price marks: ok · -1s ago holder snapshots: ok · -3s ago ·

Collection — 2.5 days of continuous capture

mints tracked
88,904
41,787 in 24h
graduations
3,242
1,408 in 24h

Race totals — today (UTC)

MONSTER-HOLD
-64.7%
$632 in · portfolio $223 · 281 bets
pump −$409
DAY-1H TOP PICKS
-0.7%
$296 in → $294 out · 56 bets
dyorswap-robinhood −$2 · pumpswap +$10 · uniswap-v3-robinhood −$4 · uniswap-v4-robinhood −$7
1H-pumpswap
+4.7%
$222 in → $232 out · 42 bets
pumpswap +$10
1H-uniswap-v3-robinhood
-8.3%
$48 in → $44 out · 9 bets
uniswap-v3-robinhood −$4
1H-uniswap-v4-robinhood
-32.6%
$21 in → $14 out · 4 bets
uniswap-v4-robinhood −$7
1H-dyorswap-robinhood
-30.3%
$5 in → $4 out · 1 bets
dyorswap-robinhood −$2
1H-orca
-8.1%
$16 in → $15 out · 3 bets
orca −$1

Race totals — cumulative per book

MONSTER-HOLD
-72.6%
$2,028 in · portfolio $555 · 901 bets
DAY-1H TOP PICKS
-0.7%
$296 in → $294 out · 56 bets
1H-pumpswap
+20.4%
$380 in → $458 out · 72 bets
1H-uniswap-v3-robinhood
+0.4%
$180 in → $180 out · 34 bets
1H-uniswap-v4-robinhood
-4.9%
$100 in → $95 out · 19 bets
1H-dyorswap-robinhood
+125.8%
$26 in → $60 out · 5 bets
1H-orca
-8.1%
$53 in → $49 out · 10 bets

Entry drift — could we fill at our quoted entries?

graduation entries measured
9,495
median next-quote drift
+0.0%
p25 +0.0% · p75 +0.6%
moved >10% against us
18%
median quote gap 1080s
Drift between our entry quote and the next quote — the realistic band a ~1-minute-latency fill lands in. Price impact at $2 size is negligible (~0.003% into a $60k pool); timing volatility is the whole story. We hold rather than snipe, so entry drift mostly shifts the base, not the thesis.

Race totals — by mint source

sourceMONSTER-HOLDDAY-1H TOP PICKS1H-pumpswap1H-uniswap-v3-robinhood1H-uniswap-v4-robinhood1H-dyorswap-robinhood1H-orca
dyorswap-robinhood-30% ($-2)+126% ($33)
orca-8% ($-4)
pump-73% ($-1,473)
pumpswap+5% ($10)+20% ($77)
uniswap-v3-robinhood-8% ($-4)+0% ($1)
uniswap-v4-robinhood-33% ($-7)-5% ($-5)
Each cell: ROI (net $) for that book's tranches on coins from that source. Anonymous pool births (the GeckoTerminal catcher) are listed by their birth AMM — fluxbeam, pumpswap, uniswap-*, orca — where 'pumpswap' means births the WS mint stream missed, distinct from the 'pump' venue.
Fluxbeam cut 2026-07-27 — honeypot. Jupiter round-trip test on live "deep" pools: buy $25 → sell back $0.00 (sell impact 99.99%; one-way token-2022 valves). Prices printed, exits did not exist — its "+29–84%" was unrealizable. The pilot retargeted to pumpswap-birth graduations, which round-trip at ~−0.7% (verified). Sellability is now checked pre-trade on every live buy.

Strategy race — two books, same store, settled identically

MONSTER-HOLD — pump graduations, $2 lottery tickets; never sold — depth-capped mark-to-market
-72.6%
901 bets · $2,028 deployed · $555 portfolio value · 195 big winners · top-1 23%
session (UTC)betsinvalueROI
07-25 EU71$160$4-97.5%
pump −$156 (71b)
07-25 US152$342$24-93.1%
pump −$318 (152b)
07-25 ASIA112$252$13-94.7%
pump −$239 (112b)
07-26 EU106$239$12-94.8%
pump −$226 (106b)
07-26 US99$223$207-6.9%
pump −$15 (99b)
07-26 ASIA80$180$71-60.5%
pump −$109 (80b)
07-27 EU129$290$45-84.4%
pump −$245 (129b)
07-27 US152$342$178-48.1%
pump −$164 (152b)
total901$2,028$555-72.6%
DAY-1H TOP PICKS — yesterday's profitable sources only; EU all venues, US robinhood-only; sell everything 1h after entry — the basket book
-0.7%
56 bets · $296 deployed · $294 back · 15 big winners · top-1 5%
session (UTC)betsinoutROI
07-27 EU53$280$286+2.3%
dyorswap-robinhood −$2 (1b) · pumpswap +$10 (42b) · uniswap-v3-robinhood +$4 (6b) · uniswap-v4-robinhood −$7 (4b)
07-27 US3$16$7-53.4%
uniswap-v3-robinhood −$8 (3b)
total56$296$294-0.7%
1H-pumpswap — pumpswap births; sell at 1h
+20.4%
72 bets · $380 deployed · $458 back · 25 big winners · top-1 13%
session (UTC)betsinoutROI
07-26 EU30$158$225+42.3%
pumpswap +$67 (30b)
07-27 EU42$222$232+4.7%
pumpswap +$10 (42b)
total72$380$458+20.4%
1H-uniswap-v3-robinhood — uniswap-v3-robinhood births; sell at 1h
+0.4%
34 bets · $180 deployed · $180 back · 6 big winners · top-1 18%
session (UTC)betsinoutROI
07-26 EU8$42$39-8.0%
uniswap-v3-robinhood −$3 (8b)
07-26 US17$90$98+8.9%
uniswap-v3-robinhood +$8 (17b)
07-27 EU6$32$36+14.2%
uniswap-v3-robinhood +$4 (6b)
07-27 US3$16$7-53.4%
uniswap-v3-robinhood −$8 (3b)
total34$180$180+0.4%
1H-uniswap-v4-robinhood — uniswap-v4-robinhood births; sell at 1h
-4.9%
19 bets · $100 deployed · $95 back · 4 big winners · top-1 10%
session (UTC)betsinoutROI
07-26 EU6$32$34+7.8%
uniswap-v4-robinhood +$2 (6b)
07-26 US9$48$47-1.1%
uniswap-v4-robinhood −$1 (9b)
07-27 EU4$21$14-32.6%
uniswap-v4-robinhood −$7 (4b)
total19$100$95-4.9%
1H-dyorswap-robinhood — dyorswap-robinhood births; sell at 1h
+125.8%
5 bets · $26 deployed · $60 back · 1 big winners · top-1 72%
session (UTC)betsinoutROI
07-26 US4$21$56+164.8%
dyorswap-robinhood +$35 (4b)
07-27 EU1$5$4-30.3%
dyorswap-robinhood −$2 (1b)
total5$26$60+125.8%
1H-orca — orca births; sell at 1h
-8.1%
10 bets · $53 deployed · $49 back · 0 big winners · top-1 10%
session (UTC)betsinoutROI
07-26 EU7$37$34-8.2%
orca −$3 (7b)
07-27 EU3$16$15-8.1%
orca −$1 (3b)
total10$53$49-8.1%
MONSTER-HOLD, the DAY-1H TOP PICKS basket (each day trades only the sources whose 1H book was profitable the PREVIOUS UTC day — no history, no bet), and one tracking box per non-pump birth source (auto-enrolled at 20+ graduations, ≥5 gate-passing bets) running the sell-at-1h rule. Session policy: EU (06–14 UTC) trades every venue; US (14–22) trades robinhood rails only — the Solana sources lose in US hours (pumpswap −20%) while robinhood held up; ASIA (22–06) trades nowhere. Every excluded combination keeps being logged and graded nightly as a "benched cell", so a policy exclusion can be reversed on evidence. MONSTER-HOLD: $2 lottery tickets on every pump.fun graduation with ≥$5k of sane pool depth, never sold — open positions valued at the depth-capped last quote, drained pools and rugs at zero. The tail thesis in its purest form: monsters take 19–140 days, so this box is judged in weeks. The DAY exit research (timed sells, targets, per-source books) lives in exits.py and can rejoin the race any time. The grey sub-line under each 4h block splits net by mint source.

Filter scoreboard — measured over the traded universe only (1,320 qualifying graduations)

filterdecidesbetsrug% wins keptkeepbets/winbestEV
replies_gt3thinat_10m30.0%10%31x$0.784
relaunch_of_winat_mint2960.0%9437%315x$0.393
uri_recycledat_mint3210.0%9738%333x$0.490
green5at_5m2583.9%6827%439x$1.164
grind_24hthinat_24h3237.5%85%43x$0.410
cr_true_firstat_mint5970.0%14657%4121x$1.197
grad_firstat_migration5970.0%14657%472x$0.618
buy_pressure5at_5m62811.5%14557%441x$0.757
vol5_gt1kat_5m1,07912.9%24495%4216x$1.284
holders_top10_gt50at_10m44723.9%10039%412x$0.597
dev_share_lt2at_mint92820.3%20279%5216x$0.916
creator_freshat_mint1,04518.0%22488%5216x$1.151
grad_confirm5at_mig51,17815.7%25299%5106x$0.803
dev_share_lt5at_mint98219.1%21082%5216x$1.037
baselineat_mint1,32014.2%256100%5216x$1.460
A filter earns its place by cutting bets faster than it cuts winners — "keep" is the share of the cohort's 256 big winners it retained; a filter that boosts EV but drops the monsters is a trap. Green EV clears the cost line ($2.25 at the $2 reference stake — race stakes differ per venue). ORACLE = needs future knowledge, ceiling only. ONE-TOKEN = result rides on a single coin.

Research loop — nightly re-grade of every exit and signal

2026-07-27: TIME-1h(EU+US) +6.4% n=186 | MONSTER -71.6% | winners 341 rugs 936 | Δ1h -9.1pp vs 2026-07-27
2026-07-27: TIME-1h(EU+US) +15.5% n=289 | MONSTER -71.6% | winners 341 rugs 935 | Δ1h -23.4pp vs 2026-07-27 | BENCHED-GREEN fluxbeam|US +21% n=30
2026-07-27: TIME-1h(EU+US) +38.9% n=261 | MONSTER -71.5% | winners 321 rugs 840

Live pilot — real fills vs paper (fluxbeam 1H)

live fills
4
2 buys · 2 sells
spent → received
$10 → $12
fees $0.03
realized (closed mints)
$+2.22
0 mints still open
live BUY fill drift
median +2.2% · p25 -2.8% · p75 +2.2% (n=2)
paper: median +0% · p25 −31% · p75 +12%

Winners study — what the $200k+ class looked like at launch

winners crawled
425
crawl 58h old
first-ever launches
85%
rotation-blind — see note
graduated
55%
median mint→ATH
6d
48% took >7 days
ATH tiernmedian days to ATHfirst-launch creators
$200k–1M10519d75%
$1M–10M9870d83%
>$10M73140d79%
One-shot crawl of pump.fun's listing, survivor-biased by design (listed by CURRENT mcap, so collapsed winners are invisible). ATHs are pump-tracker prints with no realizability leg — wash-printable, and one confirmed $60M farm print is in the set. "First-launch" cannot see wallet rotation (URI-lineage lower bound: 2 of 365 rotated). The duration findings are robust to both: monsters grind for weeks, they do not spike.

Staged entries — pyramid tickets into coins that keep proving themselves

planbetsdeployedreturnedROIwinners held
Instead of one ticket at mint, tickets are added as a coin passes survival gates: graduation, then still-grinding a day later (≥$60k, within 50% of its high, live quote), then again at day 3. Winners grind for weeks — persistence is the signal. Gate tranches activate once coins age past each gate; each tranche settles at its own entry price.

Predictions

None yet — deliberately.
Predictions start publishing here when a strategy clears its cost line over a multi-week window with a sample no single coin dominates. Status after the 2026-07-26/27 audits: no filter currently clears cost on the honest scoreboard (the early "graduation entry clears cost" reading was clone-farm wash-print inflation, since guarded away). The live candidates being measured instead: the MONSTER lottery (needs weeks by construction) and the fluxbeam 1-hour pop from the exit grid (+69% on 134 bets, one regime — an execution-truth pilot is planned, not a tip). This page reports measurements, not tips.