Meme-coin lottery — forward testPAPER ONLY

Strategy under test: many tiny bets, paid for by the rare monster. A win rate as low as 1% is fine — at $2.21 a bet, one true 1000x ($2.1M market cap from a ~$2.1k launch) returns roughly $1,900 and carries ~860 losers on its back. Everything below is measured through that lens: keep the future monsters in the net, cut everything else. No real money. Updated 2026-07-25 17:35 UTC · auto-refreshes every 5 min.
mint firehose: ok · 2s ago price marks: ok · 1s ago holder snapshots: ok · 1s ago

Collection — 9.6 hours of continuous capture

mints tracked
9,580
9,580 in 24h
priced (paper entries)
8,277
price marks
202,327
graduations
358
358 in 24h
holder snapshots
6,963
1–9 min after mint
creator résumés
1,977
witnessed rugs
16
≥$30k → drained = $0 return
blacklisted wallets
94
grows only, never forgives

Economics — does the tail pay for the body?

cost per $2 bet
$2.21
stake + 1% fee + priority + rent
big winners in cohort
89
true ATH ≥ $210k (~100x)
bets per big win
93
unfiltered — the number filters must shrink
basket EV per bet
$0.201
sell-at-30%-of-peak, rugs = $0
edge
-90.9%
must reach 0% to go live
breakeven 1000x rate
1 in ~860
what the math demands
best multiple seen
4,596x
true ATH vs paper entry
SOL
$74

Peak multiples — 8,277 priced launches (true ATHs)

≥1x
6,760 · 81.67%
≥2x
1,954 · 23.61%
≥5x
695 · 8.40%
≥10x
380 · 4.59%
≥100x
66 · 0.80%
≥1000x
11 · 0.13%

Filter scoreboard — ranked by bets per kept big winner

filterdecidesbetsrug% wins keptkeepbets/winbestEV
relaunch_of_winONE-TOKENthinat_mint420.0%3944%115x$0.420
grad_firstONE-TOKENthinat_migration900.0%5360%2257x$2.216
grad_fast30at_migration2561.6%8798%3645x$2.536
grad_entryat_migration2961.4%8899%3645x$2.389
grad_oracleORACLEORACLE2971.3%8899%31,589x$2.448
uri_recycledat_mint1860.0%4247%415x$0.211
grad_proventhinat_migration902.2%89%11177x$1.979
buy_pressure5at_5m8310.0%7180%1217x$0.177
green5at_5m9320.2%7989%1280x$0.487
cr_true_firstat_mint9230.3%5360%1735x$0.276
holders_top10_gt50at_10m8290.7%4045%21180x$0.206
vol5_gt1kat_5m2,4340.5%8494%29180x$0.279
creator_freshat_mint2,5120.1%8393%301,589x$0.302
buyers5_gt10at_5m3,0340.5%8899%3416,673x$0.400
baselineat_mint8,2770.2%89100%931,589x$0.201
A filter earns its place by cutting bets faster than it cuts winners — "keep" is the share of the cohort's 89 big winners it retained; a filter that boosts EV but drops the monsters is a trap. Green EV clears the cost line ($2.21). ORACLE = needs future knowledge, ceiling only. ONE-TOKEN = result rides on a single coin.

Strategy race — two books, same store, settled identically

MONSTER — grad + grind tranches; exit -50% trailing stop
+84.1%
261 bets · $576 deployed · $1,061 back · 87 big winners · top-1 53%
daybetscum incum outROI
2026-07-25261$576$1,061+84.1%
MONSTER-T25 — same book; tighter exit: -25% trailing stop
+9.9%
261 bets · $576 deployed · $633 back · 87 big winners · top-1 34%
daybetscum incum outROI
2026-07-25261$576$633+9.9%
HOURLY-HH — +$2 every hour a new high prints; exit -50% trailing stop
+42.4%
458 bets · $1,011 deployed · $1,440 back · 87 big winners · top-1 39%
daybetscum incum outROI
2026-07-25458$1,011$1,440+42.4%
MONSTER: $2 at graduation, +$2 at +24h/+72h only on higher highs; ruggers and serial-dud creators cut; exit −50% trailing stop, filled at the breaching quote. MONSTER-T25: same book, −25% stop. HOURLY-HH: +$2 every hour that prints a new high (max 48 adds), −50% stop. Open tranches mark to the last quote; daily rows accrue.

Staged entries — pyramid tickets into coins that keep proving themselves

planbetsdeployedreturnedROIwinners held
mint only8,277$18,277$1,666-90.9%89
graduation only296$654$707+8.2%88
grad + grind@24h296$654$707+8.2%88
grad + grind@24h+@72h296$654$707+8.2%88
Instead of one ticket at mint, tickets are added as a coin passes survival gates: graduation, then still-grinding a day later (≥$60k, within 50% of its high, live quote), then again at day 3. Winners grind for weeks — persistence is the signal. Gate tranches activate once coins age past each gate; each tranche settles at its own entry price.

Predictions

None yet — deliberately.
Predictions start publishing here when a filter stack clears the cost line over a multi-week window with a sample no single coin dominates. Current best honest candidate: buy at graduation — keeps ~93% of big winners in ~3% of the bets and sits above cost — with cheap pre-screens (early-buyer count) that so far cut over half the bets while keeping every winner. Until then this page reports measurements, not tips.