Meme-coin lottery — forward testPAPER ONLY
Strategy under test: many tiny bets, paid for by the rare monster.
A win rate as low as 1% is fine — at $2.21 a bet, one true 1000x
($2.1M market cap from a ~$2.1k launch) returns roughly
$1,900 and carries ~860 losers on its back. Everything below is measured through that lens:
keep the future monsters in the net, cut everything else.
No real money. Updated 2026-07-26 07:36 UTC · auto-refreshes every 5 min.
mint firehose: ok · 5s ago
price marks: ok · 1s ago
holder snapshots: ok · 9s ago
Collection — 23.6 hours of continuous capture
mints tracked
25,647
25,647 in 24h
Race totals — today (UTC)
GRAD-T50
-9.4%
$1,258 in → $1,140 out · 569 bets
bags-fm −$6 · gt:solana +$71 · meteora-dbc −$8 · pump −$175
F30-T50
-8.2%
$1,224 in → $1,124 out · 554 bets
bags-fm −$6 · gt:solana +$71 · meteora-dbc −$8 · pump −$157
GRAD-T25
-4.9%
$1,258 in → $1,196 out · 569 bets
bags-fm −$6 · gt:solana +$105 · meteora-dbc −$8 · pump −$152
F30-T25
-4.0%
$1,224 in → $1,175 out · 554 bets
bags-fm −$6 · gt:solana +$105 · meteora-dbc −$8 · pump −$140
F30-HOLD
-11.7%
$1,224 in · portfolio $1,081 · 554 bets
bags-fm −$6 · gt:solana +$42 · meteora-dbc −$8 · pump −$171
Race totals — cumulative per book
GRAD-T50
-26.0%
$2,206 in → $1,633 out · 998 bets
F30-T50
-25.1%
$2,053 in → $1,538 out · 929 bets
GRAD-T25
-22.8%
$2,206 in → $1,703 out · 998 bets
F30-T25
-22.9%
$2,053 in → $1,583 out · 929 bets
F30-HOLD
-29.0%
$2,053 in · portfolio $1,458 · 929 bets
Entry drift — could we fill at our quoted entries?
graduation entries measured
1,081
median next-quote drift
+0.0%
p25 -13.1% · p75 +16.3%
moved >10% against us
30%
median quote gap 458s
Drift between our entry quote and the next quote — the realistic band a ~1-minute-latency fill lands in. Price impact at $2 size is negligible (~0.003% into a $60k pool); timing volatility is the whole story. We hold rather than snipe, so entry drift mostly shifts the base, not the thesis.
Race totals — by mint source
| source | GRAD-T50 | F30-T50 | GRAD-T25 | F30-T25 | F30-HOLD |
|---|
| bags-fm | -34% ($-6) | -34% ($-6) | -34% ($-6) | -34% ($-6) | -34% ($-6) |
| bonk | -36% ($-3) | -36% ($-3) | -32% ($-3) | -32% ($-3) | -37% ($-3) |
| gt:solana | +8% ($71) | +8% ($71) | +12% ($105) | +12% ($105) | +5% ($42) |
| meteora-dbc | -38% ($-8) | -38% ($-8) | -38% ($-8) | -38% ($-8) | -38% ($-8) |
| pump | -48% ($-626) | -49% ($-569) | -45% ($-591) | -48% ($-558) | -54% ($-620) |
Each cell: ROI (net $) for that book's tranches on coins
from that source. gt:* rows are pool-birth entries from the GeckoTerminal catcher.
Strategy race — two books, same store, settled identically
GRAD-T50 — grad entry; exit -50% trailing stop
-26.0%
998 bets · $2,206 deployed · $1,633 back · 99 big winners · top-1 4%
| block (UTC) | bets | in | out | ROI |
|---|
| 07-25 08–12h | 87 | $192 | $146 | -24.2% |
| pump −$47 (87b) |
| 07-25 12–16h | 125 | $276 | $87 | -68.6% |
| pump −$189 (125b) |
| 07-25 16–20h | 118 | $261 | $159 | -39.2% |
| pump −$102 (118b) |
| 07-25 20–24h | 99 | $219 | $102 | -53.4% |
| bonk −$3 (4b) · pump −$114 (95b) |
| 07-26 00–04h | 96 | $212 | $90 | -57.6% |
| pump −$122 (96b) |
| 07-26 04–08h | 473 | $1,045 | $1,050 | +0.4% |
| bags-fm −$6 (8b) · gt:solana +$71 (385b) · meteora-dbc −$8 (10b) · pump −$52 (70b) |
| total | 998 | $2,206 | $1,633 | -26.0% |
GRAD-T25 — grad entry; exit -25% trailing stop
-22.8%
998 bets · $2,206 deployed · $1,703 back · 99 big winners · top-1 4%
| block (UTC) | bets | in | out | ROI |
|---|
| 07-25 08–12h | 87 | $192 | $95 | -50.6% |
| pump −$97 (87b) |
| 07-25 12–16h | 125 | $276 | $124 | -55.2% |
| pump −$153 (125b) |
| 07-25 16–20h | 118 | $261 | $154 | -40.9% |
| pump −$107 (118b) |
| 07-25 20–24h | 99 | $219 | $134 | -38.7% |
| bonk −$3 (4b) · pump −$82 (95b) |
| 07-26 00–04h | 96 | $212 | $104 | -51.2% |
| pump −$109 (96b) |
| 07-26 04–08h | 473 | $1,045 | $1,092 | +4.5% |
| bags-fm −$6 (8b) · gt:solana +$105 (385b) · meteora-dbc −$8 (10b) · pump −$44 (70b) |
| total | 998 | $2,206 | $1,703 | -22.8% |
F30-T50 — fast graduates (<30min) only; -50% trailing stop
-25.1%
929 bets · $2,053 deployed · $1,538 back · 97 big winners · top-1 4%
| block (UTC) | bets | in | out | ROI |
|---|
| 07-25 08–12h | 80 | $177 | $141 | -20.5% |
| pump −$36 (80b) |
| 07-25 12–16h | 108 | $239 | $73 | -69.3% |
| pump −$165 (108b) |
| 07-25 16–20h | 103 | $228 | $114 | -50.1% |
| pump −$114 (103b) |
| 07-25 20–24h | 84 | $186 | $86 | -53.6% |
| bonk −$3 (4b) · pump −$96 (80b) |
| 07-26 00–04h | 87 | $192 | $80 | -58.4% |
| pump −$112 (87b) |
| 07-26 04–08h | 467 | $1,032 | $1,044 | +1.2% |
| bags-fm −$6 (8b) · gt:solana +$71 (385b) · meteora-dbc −$8 (10b) · pump −$45 (64b) |
| total | 929 | $2,053 | $1,538 | -25.1% |
F30-T25 — fast graduates (<30min) only; -25% trailing stop
-22.9%
929 bets · $2,053 deployed · $1,583 back · 97 big winners · top-1 4%
| block (UTC) | bets | in | out | ROI |
|---|
| 07-25 08–12h | 80 | $177 | $87 | -50.7% |
| pump −$90 (80b) |
| 07-25 12–16h | 108 | $239 | $104 | -56.3% |
| pump −$134 (108b) |
| 07-25 16–20h | 103 | $228 | $107 | -53.2% |
| pump −$121 (103b) |
| 07-25 20–24h | 84 | $186 | $110 | -40.8% |
| bonk −$3 (4b) · pump −$73 (80b) |
| 07-26 00–04h | 87 | $192 | $92 | -52.0% |
| pump −$100 (87b) |
| 07-26 04–08h | 467 | $1,032 | $1,083 | +4.9% |
| bags-fm −$6 (8b) · gt:solana +$105 (385b) · meteora-dbc −$8 (10b) · pump −$40 (64b) |
| total | 929 | $2,053 | $1,583 | -22.9% |
F30-HOLD — fast graduates (<30min); no exit — depth-capped mark-to-market
-29.0%
929 bets · $2,053 deployed · $1,458 portfolio value · 97 big winners · top-1 4%
| block (UTC) | bets | in | value | ROI |
|---|
| 07-25 08–12h | 80 | $177 | $146 | -17.6% |
| pump −$31 (80b) |
| 07-25 12–16h | 108 | $239 | $57 | -75.9% |
| pump −$181 (108b) |
| 07-25 16–20h | 103 | $228 | $90 | -60.5% |
| pump −$138 (103b) |
| 07-25 20–24h | 84 | $186 | $83 | -55.1% |
| bonk −$3 (4b) · pump −$99 (80b) |
| 07-26 00–04h | 87 | $192 | $63 | -67.2% |
| pump −$129 (87b) |
| 07-26 04–08h | 467 | $1,032 | $1,018 | -1.4% |
| bags-fm −$6 (8b) · gt:solana +$42 (385b) · meteora-dbc −$8 (10b) · pump −$42 (64b) |
| total | 929 | $2,053 | $1,458 | -29.0% |
All books buy graduates only (ruggers and serial-dud creators cut). GRAD-T50 / GRAD-T25: single $2 at graduation, −50% / −25% trailing stop filled at the breaching quote. F30-*: the same books restricted to coins that graduated within 30 minutes of mint — every big winner so far has. F30-HOLD: no exit rule — open positions valued at the depth-capped last quote, dead coins and rugs count $0; the never-sell bound any exit rule must beat. The grey sub-line under each 4h block splits that block's net by mint source.
Filter scoreboard — ranked by bets per kept big winner
| filter | decides | bets | rug% |
wins kept | keep | bets/win | best | EV |
|---|
| relaunch_of_win | at_mint | 134 | 0.7% | 41 | 40% | 3 | 15x | $0.393 |
| grad_first | at_migration | 229 | 0.0% | 49 | 48% | 5 | 1,471x | $6.759 |
| grad_confirm5ONE-TOKEN | at_mig5 | 944 | 7.2% | 98 | 95% | 10 | 8,266x | $1.947 |
| grad_fast30 | at_migration | 1,012 | 6.9% | 99 | 97% | 10 | 8,266x | $5.466 |
| grad_entry | at_migration | 1,110 | 6.4% | 101 | 99% | 11 | 8,266x | $5.157 |
| grad_oracleORACLE | ORACLE | 1,113 | 6.4% | 101 | 99% | 11 | 5,867x | $1.228 |
| grad_proven | at_migration | 220 | 1.8% | 17 | 17% | 13 | 1,702x | $6.889 |
| replies_gt3ONE-TOKENthin | at_10m | 17 | 0.0% | 1 | 1% | 17 | 1x | $0.088 |
| uri_recycled | at_mint | 827 | 0.0% | 41 | 40% | 20 | 15x | $0.101 |
| green5 | at_5m | 1,125 | 0.2% | 50 | 49% | 22 | 80x | $0.509 |
| buy_pressure5 | at_5m | 1,632 | 1.9% | 61 | 60% | 27 | 32x | $0.244 |
| vol5_gt1k | at_5m | 4,443 | 2.0% | 94 | 92% | 47 | 1,775x | $0.311 |
| grad_slowthin | at_migration | 98 | 1.0% | 2 | 2% | 49 | 1,987x | $1.973 |
| grad_dumped5ONE-TOKEN | at_mig5 | 166 | 1.8% | 3 | 4% | 55 | 2,853x | $3.902 |
| baseline | at_mint | 21,815 | 0.5% | 102 | 100% | 214 | 5,867x | $0.135 |
A filter earns its place by cutting bets faster than it cuts
winners — "keep" is the share of the cohort's 102 big winners it retained; a filter that
boosts EV but drops the monsters is a trap. Green EV clears the cost line ($2.21).
ORACLE = needs future knowledge, ceiling only. ONE-TOKEN = result rides on a single coin.
Staged entries — pyramid tickets into coins that keep proving themselves
| plan | bets | deployed | returned | ROI | winners held |
|---|
Instead of one ticket at mint, tickets are added as a coin
passes survival gates: graduation, then still-grinding a day later (≥$60k, within 50% of its high,
live quote), then again at day 3. Winners grind for weeks — persistence is the signal. Gate tranches
activate once coins age past each gate; each tranche settles at its own entry price.
Predictions
None yet — deliberately.
Predictions start publishing here when a filter stack clears
the cost line over a multi-week window with a sample no single coin dominates. Current best honest
candidate: buy at graduation — keeps ~93% of big winners in ~3% of the bets and sits above
cost — with cheap pre-screens (early-buyer count) that so far cut over half the bets while keeping
every winner. Until then this page reports measurements, not tips.