Meme-coin lottery — forward testPAPER ONLY
Strategy under test: many tiny bets, paid for by the rare monster.
A win rate as low as 1% is fine — at $2.21 a bet, one true 1000x
($2.1M market cap from a ~$2.1k launch) returns roughly
$1,900 and carries ~860 losers on its back. Everything below is measured through that lens:
keep the future monsters in the net, cut everything else.
No real money. Updated 2026-07-26 09:48 UTC · auto-refreshes every 5 min.
mint firehose: ok · 0s ago
price marks: ok · 1s ago
holder snapshots: ok · 26s ago
Collection — 25.8 hours of continuous capture
mints tracked
27,906
26,466 in 24h
graduations
1,128
1,091 in 24h
Race totals — today (UTC)
GRAD-T50
-12.1%
$2,703 in → $2,375 out · 1,223 bets
bags-fm −$10 · gt:robinhood −$26 · gt:solana −$9 · meteora-dbc −$54 · pump −$229
F30-T50
-11.5%
$2,655 in → $2,350 out · 1,201 bets
bags-fm −$10 · gt:robinhood −$26 · gt:solana −$9 · meteora-dbc −$54 · pump −$205
GRAD-T25
-9.3%
$2,703 in → $2,452 out · 1,223 bets
bags-fm −$10 · gt:robinhood −$24 · gt:solana +$38 · meteora-dbc −$53 · pump −$202
F30-T25
-8.8%
$2,655 in → $2,420 out · 1,201 bets
bags-fm −$10 · gt:robinhood −$24 · gt:solana +$38 · meteora-dbc −$53 · pump −$185
F30-HOLD
-14.1%
$2,655 in · portfolio $2,280 · 1,201 bets
bags-fm −$10 · gt:robinhood −$27 · gt:solana −$48 · meteora-dbc −$56 · pump −$233
Race totals — cumulative per book
GRAD-T50
-20.3%
$3,650 in → $2,909 out · 1,651 bets
F30-T50
-19.6%
$3,482 in → $2,800 out · 1,575 bets
GRAD-T25
-19.3%
$3,650 in → $2,945 out · 1,651 bets
F30-T25
-19.3%
$3,482 in → $2,810 out · 1,575 bets
F30-HOLD
-10.2%
$3,482 in · portfolio $3,126 · 1,575 bets
Entry drift — could we fill at our quoted entries?
graduation entries measured
1,731
median next-quote drift
+0.0%
p25 -1.9% · p75 +11.5%
moved >10% against us
26%
median quote gap 605s
Drift between our entry quote and the next quote — the realistic band a ~1-minute-latency fill lands in. Price impact at $2 size is negligible (~0.003% into a $60k pool); timing volatility is the whole story. We hold rather than snipe, so entry drift mostly shifts the base, not the thesis.
Race totals — by mint source
| source | GRAD-T50 | F30-T50 | GRAD-T25 | F30-T25 | F30-HOLD |
|---|
| bags-fm | -27% ($-10) | -27% ($-10) | -27% ($-10) | -27% ($-10) | -27% ($-10) |
| bonk | -38% ($-3) | -38% ($-3) | -32% ($-3) | -32% ($-3) | -39% ($-3) |
| gt:robinhood | -5% ($-26) | -5% ($-26) | -4% ($-24) | -4% ($-24) | -5% ($-27) |
| gt:solana | -1% ($-9) | -1% ($-9) | +3% ($38) | +3% ($38) | -3% ($-48) |
| meteora-dbc | -32% ($-54) | -32% ($-54) | -31% ($-53) | -31% ($-53) | -33% ($-56) |
| pump | -44% ($-637) | -45% ($-579) | -45% ($-652) | -49% ($-620) | -16% ($-210) |
Each cell: ROI (net $) for that book's tranches on coins
from that source. gt:* rows are pool-birth entries from the GeckoTerminal catcher.
Strategy race — two books, same store, settled identically
GRAD-T50 — grad entry; exit -50% trailing stop
-20.3%
1,651 bets · $3,650 deployed · $2,909 back · 129 big winners · top-1 4%
| block (UTC) | bets | in | out | ROI |
|---|
| 07-25 08–12h | 87 | $192 | $200 | +4.0% |
| pump +$8 (87b) |
| 07-25 12–16h | 125 | $276 | $87 | -68.6% |
| pump −$189 (125b) |
| 07-25 16–20h | 117 | $259 | $162 | -37.4% |
| pump −$97 (117b) |
| 07-25 20–24h | 99 | $219 | $86 | -60.7% |
| bonk −$3 (4b) · pump −$130 (95b) |
| 07-26 00–04h | 96 | $212 | $86 | -59.5% |
| pump −$126 (96b) |
| 07-26 04–08h | 739 | $1,634 | $1,476 | -9.6% |
| bags-fm −$7 (10b) · gt:robinhood −$19 (158b) · gt:solana −$27 (464b) · meteora-dbc −$28 (24b) · pump −$76 (83b) |
| 07-26 08–12h | 388 | $858 | $813 | -5.3% |
| bags-fm −$4 (7b) · gt:robinhood −$7 (103b) · gt:solana +$18 (175b) · meteora-dbc −$27 (53b) · pump −$26 (50b) |
| total | 1,651 | $3,650 | $2,909 | -20.3% |
GRAD-T25 — grad entry; exit -25% trailing stop
-19.3%
1,651 bets · $3,650 deployed · $2,945 back · 129 big winners · top-1 3%
| block (UTC) | bets | in | out | ROI |
|---|
| 07-25 08–12h | 87 | $192 | $95 | -50.7% |
| pump −$98 (87b) |
| 07-25 12–16h | 125 | $276 | $124 | -55.3% |
| pump −$153 (125b) |
| 07-25 16–20h | 117 | $259 | $157 | -39.4% |
| pump −$102 (117b) |
| 07-25 20–24h | 99 | $219 | $118 | -45.9% |
| bonk −$3 (4b) · pump −$98 (95b) |
| 07-26 00–04h | 96 | $212 | $99 | -53.5% |
| pump −$114 (96b) |
| 07-26 04–08h | 739 | $1,634 | $1,530 | -6.4% |
| bags-fm −$7 (10b) · gt:robinhood −$25 (158b) · gt:solana +$19 (464b) · meteora-dbc −$27 (24b) · pump −$64 (83b) |
| 07-26 08–12h | 388 | $858 | $824 | -4.0% |
| bags-fm −$4 (7b) · gt:robinhood +$1 (103b) · gt:solana +$19 (175b) · meteora-dbc −$26 (53b) · pump −$24 (50b) |
| total | 1,651 | $3,650 | $2,945 | -19.3% |
F30-T50 — fast graduates (<30min) only; -50% trailing stop
-19.6%
1,575 bets · $3,482 deployed · $2,800 back · 127 big winners · top-1 4%
| block (UTC) | bets | in | out | ROI |
|---|
| 07-25 08–12h | 80 | $177 | $195 | +10.2% |
| pump +$18 (80b) |
| 07-25 12–16h | 108 | $239 | $73 | -69.3% |
| pump −$165 (108b) |
| 07-25 16–20h | 102 | $225 | $111 | -50.8% |
| pump −$114 (102b) |
| 07-25 20–24h | 84 | $186 | $71 | -62.0% |
| bonk −$3 (4b) · pump −$112 (80b) |
| 07-26 00–04h | 87 | $192 | $78 | -59.2% |
| pump −$114 (87b) |
| 07-26 04–08h | 733 | $1,620 | $1,472 | -9.2% |
| bags-fm −$7 (10b) · gt:robinhood −$19 (158b) · gt:solana −$27 (464b) · meteora-dbc −$28 (24b) · pump −$68 (77b) |
| 07-26 08–12h | 381 | $842 | $800 | -5.0% |
| bags-fm −$4 (7b) · gt:robinhood −$7 (103b) · gt:solana +$18 (175b) · meteora-dbc −$27 (53b) · pump −$23 (43b) |
| total | 1,575 | $3,482 | $2,800 | -19.6% |
F30-T25 — fast graduates (<30min) only; -25% trailing stop
-19.3%
1,575 bets · $3,482 deployed · $2,810 back · 127 big winners · top-1 3%
| block (UTC) | bets | in | out | ROI |
|---|
| 07-25 08–12h | 80 | $177 | $87 | -50.9% |
| pump −$90 (80b) |
| 07-25 12–16h | 108 | $239 | $104 | -56.3% |
| pump −$134 (108b) |
| 07-25 16–20h | 102 | $225 | $104 | -53.9% |
| pump −$121 (102b) |
| 07-25 20–24h | 84 | $186 | $94 | -49.3% |
| bonk −$3 (4b) · pump −$89 (80b) |
| 07-26 00–04h | 87 | $192 | $90 | -53.3% |
| pump −$103 (87b) |
| 07-26 04–08h | 733 | $1,620 | $1,520 | -6.2% |
| bags-fm −$7 (10b) · gt:robinhood −$25 (158b) · gt:solana +$19 (464b) · meteora-dbc −$27 (24b) · pump −$61 (77b) |
| 07-26 08–12h | 381 | $842 | $810 | -3.8% |
| bags-fm −$4 (7b) · gt:robinhood +$1 (103b) · gt:solana +$19 (175b) · meteora-dbc −$26 (53b) · pump −$22 (43b) |
| total | 1,575 | $3,482 | $2,810 | -19.3% |
F30-HOLD — fast graduates (<30min); no exit — depth-capped mark-to-market
-10.2%
1,575 bets · $3,482 deployed · $3,126 portfolio value · 127 big winners · top-1 15%
| block (UTC) | bets | in | value | ROI |
|---|
| 07-25 08–12h | 80 | $177 | $197 | +11.6% |
| pump +$21 (80b) |
| 07-25 12–16h | 108 | $239 | $504 | +111.1% |
| pump +$265 (108b) |
| 07-25 16–20h | 102 | $225 | $87 | -61.4% |
| pump −$138 (102b) |
| 07-25 20–24h | 84 | $186 | $58 | -69.0% |
| bonk −$3 (4b) · pump −$125 (80b) |
| 07-26 00–04h | 87 | $192 | $60 | -68.6% |
| pump −$132 (87b) |
| 07-26 04–08h | 733 | $1,620 | $1,423 | -12.2% |
| bags-fm −$7 (10b) · gt:robinhood −$19 (158b) · gt:solana −$64 (464b) · meteora-dbc −$30 (24b) · pump −$78 (77b) |
| 07-26 08–12h | 381 | $842 | $797 | -5.4% |
| bags-fm −$4 (7b) · gt:robinhood −$8 (103b) · gt:solana +$16 (175b) · meteora-dbc −$27 (53b) · pump −$23 (43b) |
| total | 1,575 | $3,482 | $3,126 | -10.2% |
All books buy graduates only (ruggers and serial-dud creators cut). GRAD-T50 / GRAD-T25: single $2 at graduation, −50% / −25% trailing stop filled at the breaching quote. F30-*: the same books restricted to coins that graduated within 30 minutes of mint — every big winner so far has. F30-HOLD: no exit rule — open positions valued at the depth-capped last quote, dead coins and rugs count $0; the never-sell bound any exit rule must beat. The grey sub-line under each 4h block splits that block's net by mint source.
Filter scoreboard — ranked by bets per kept big winner
| filter | decides | bets | rug% |
wins kept | keep | bets/win | best | EV |
|---|
| relaunch_of_win | at_mint | 156 | 0.6% | 46 | 34% | 3 | 15x | $0.416 |
| grad_first | at_migration | 281 | 0.4% | 59 | 44% | 5 | 9,568x | $17.413 |
| replies_gt3thin | at_10m | 24 | 0.0% | 2 | 1% | 12 | 2x | $0.145 |
| grad_confirm5 | at_mig5 | 1,610 | 8.5% | 129 | 95% | 12 | 71,277x | $2.078 |
| grad_fast30 | at_migration | 1,667 | 8.3% | 130 | 97% | 13 | 71,277x | $8.556 |
| grad_entry | at_migration | 1,776 | 7.9% | 132 | 99% | 13 | 71,277x | $8.146 |
| grad_oracleORACLE | ORACLE | 1,780 | 7.9% | 132 | 99% | 13 | 71,277x | $0.987 |
| grad_proven | at_migration | 243 | 2.1% | 18 | 13% | 14 | 2,131x | $12.863 |
| uri_recycled | at_mint | 851 | 0.0% | 46 | 34% | 18 | 15x | $0.112 |
| green5 | at_5m | 1,125 | 0.2% | 50 | 37% | 22 | 80x | $0.509 |
| buy_pressure5 | at_5m | 1,763 | 3.2% | 70 | 52% | 25 | 32x | $0.269 |
| vol5_gt1k | at_5m | 4,751 | 3.1% | 123 | 92% | 39 | 1,775x | $0.334 |
| buyers5_gt10 | at_5m | 6,127 | 2.8% | 127 | 95% | 48 | 5,867x | $0.343 |
| grad_slow | at_migration | 109 | 1.8% | 2 | 1% | 54 | 1,987x | $1.881 |
| baseline | at_mint | 24,111 | 0.8% | 134 | 100% | 180 | 71,277x | $0.154 |
A filter earns its place by cutting bets faster than it cuts
winners — "keep" is the share of the cohort's 134 big winners it retained; a filter that
boosts EV but drops the monsters is a trap. Green EV clears the cost line ($2.21).
ORACLE = needs future knowledge, ceiling only. ONE-TOKEN = result rides on a single coin.
Staged entries — pyramid tickets into coins that keep proving themselves
| plan | bets | deployed | returned | ROI | winners held |
|---|
Instead of one ticket at mint, tickets are added as a coin
passes survival gates: graduation, then still-grinding a day later (≥$60k, within 50% of its high,
live quote), then again at day 3. Winners grind for weeks — persistence is the signal. Gate tranches
activate once coins age past each gate; each tranche settles at its own entry price.
Predictions
None yet — deliberately.
Predictions start publishing here when a filter stack clears
the cost line over a multi-week window with a sample no single coin dominates. Current best honest
candidate: buy at graduation — keeps ~93% of big winners in ~3% of the bets and sits above
cost — with cheap pre-screens (early-buyer count) that so far cut over half the bets while keeping
every winner. Until then this page reports measurements, not tips.