Meme-coin lottery — forward testPAPER ONLY
Strategy under test: many small bets, paid for by the rare monster.
A win rate as low as 1% is fine — at $2.21 a bet, one true 1000x
($2.1M market cap from a ~$2.1k launch) returns roughly
$1,900 before depth caps and carries ~859
losers on its back. Stakes: pump $2, every other venue $25; every entry pays constant-product
impact against its entry pool. Everything below is measured through that lens:
keep the future monsters in the net, cut everything else.
No real money. Updated 2026-07-27 02:29 UTC · auto-refreshes every 5 min.
mint firehose: ok · 2s ago
price marks: ok · 1s ago
holder snapshots: ok · 2s ago
Collection — 42.5 hours of continuous capture
mints tracked
58,115
37,252 in 24h
graduations
2,265
1,449 in 24h
Race totals — today (UTC)
MONSTER-HOLD
-19.4%
$51 in · portfolio $41 · 23 bets
pump −$10
DAY-T50
-9.4%
$509 in → $461 out · 20 bets
gt:robinhood −$13 · gt:solana −$34
DAY-T25
-10.1%
$509 in → $457 out · 20 bets
gt:robinhood −$17 · gt:solana −$34
DAY-HOLD
-9.4%
$509 in · portfolio $461 · 20 bets
gt:robinhood −$13 · gt:solana −$34
Race totals — cumulative per book
MONSTER-HOLD
-71.9%
$1,297 in · portfolio $364 · 586 bets
DAY-T50
-18.8%
$6,692 in → $5,435 out · 263 bets
DAY-T25
-14.9%
$6,692 in → $5,694 out · 263 bets
DAY-HOLD
-24.0%
$6,692 in · portfolio $5,089 · 263 bets
Entry drift — could we fill at our quoted entries?
graduation entries measured
6,086
median next-quote drift
+0.0%
p25 +0.0% · p75 +0.0%
moved >10% against us
17%
median quote gap 1102s
Drift between our entry quote and the next quote — the realistic band a ~1-minute-latency fill lands in. Price impact at $2 size is negligible (~0.003% into a $60k pool); timing volatility is the whole story. We hold rather than snipe, so entry drift mostly shifts the base, not the thesis.
Race totals — by mint source
| source | MONSTER-HOLD | DAY-T50 | DAY-T25 | DAY-HOLD |
|---|
| gt:robinhood | — | -24% ($-338) | -13% ($-191) | -23% ($-334) |
| gt:solana | — | -17% ($-893) | -15% ($-790) | -24% ($-1,231) |
| pons | — | -52% ($-26) | -33% ($-17) | -74% ($-38) |
| pump | -72% ($-933) | — | — | — |
Each cell: ROI (net $) for that book's tranches on coins
from that source. gt:* rows are pool-birth entries from the GeckoTerminal catcher.
Strategy race — two books, same store, settled identically
MONSTER-HOLD — pump graduations, $2 lottery tickets; never sold — depth-capped mark-to-market
-71.9%
586 bets · $1,297 deployed · $364 portfolio value · 134 big winners · top-1 34%
| block (UTC) | bets | in | value | ROI |
|---|
| 07-25 08–12h | 30 | $66 | $3 | -96.2% |
| pump −$64 (30b) |
| 07-25 12–16h | 88 | $195 | $6 | -97.0% |
| pump −$189 (88b) |
| 07-25 16–20h | 77 | $170 | $25 | -85.6% |
| pump −$146 (77b) |
| 07-25 20–24h | 60 | $133 | $17 | -87.4% |
| pump −$116 (60b) |
| 07-26 00–04h | 57 | $126 | $6 | -95.4% |
| pump −$120 (57b) |
| 07-26 04–08h | 49 | $108 | $2 | -98.1% |
| pump −$106 (49b) |
| 07-26 08–12h | 53 | $117 | $6 | -94.5% |
| pump −$111 (53b) |
| 07-26 12–16h | 50 | $111 | $71 | -35.7% |
| pump −$40 (50b) |
| 07-26 16–20h | 51 | $113 | $145 | +28.1% |
| pump +$32 (51b) |
| 07-26 20–24h | 48 | $106 | $44 | -59.0% |
| pump −$63 (48b) |
| 07-27 00–04h | 23 | $51 | $41 | -19.4% |
| pump −$10 (23b) |
| total | 586 | $1,297 | $364 | -71.9% |
DAY-T50 — non-pump venues; -50% trailing stop
-18.8%
263 bets · $6,692 deployed · $5,435 back · 36 big winners · top-1 3%
| block (UTC) | bets | in | out | ROI |
|---|
| 07-26 04–08h | 42 | $1,069 | $906 | -15.2% |
| gt:robinhood +$62 (3b) · gt:solana −$224 (39b) |
| 07-26 08–12h | 49 | $1,247 | $1,142 | -8.4% |
| gt:robinhood −$112 (6b) · gt:solana +$7 (43b) |
| 07-26 12–16h | 57 | $1,450 | $1,223 | -15.6% |
| gt:robinhood −$47 (16b) · gt:solana −$162 (40b) · pons −$18 (1b) |
| 07-26 16–20h | 50 | $1,272 | $855 | -32.8% |
| gt:robinhood −$127 (15b) · gt:solana −$281 (34b) · pons −$8 (1b) |
| 07-26 20–24h | 45 | $1,145 | $847 | -26.0% |
| gt:robinhood −$100 (9b) · gt:solana −$199 (36b) |
| 07-27 00–04h | 20 | $509 | $461 | -9.4% |
| gt:robinhood −$13 (7b) · gt:solana −$34 (13b) |
| total | 263 | $6,692 | $5,435 | -18.8% |
DAY-T25 — non-pump venues; -25% trailing stop
-14.9%
263 bets · $6,692 deployed · $5,694 back · 36 big winners · top-1 2%
| block (UTC) | bets | in | out | ROI |
|---|
| 07-26 04–08h | 42 | $1,069 | $928 | -13.1% |
| gt:robinhood +$66 (3b) · gt:solana −$206 (39b) |
| 07-26 08–12h | 49 | $1,247 | $1,156 | -7.2% |
| gt:robinhood −$86 (6b) · gt:solana −$4 (43b) |
| 07-26 12–16h | 57 | $1,450 | $1,270 | -12.4% |
| gt:robinhood −$31 (16b) · gt:solana −$140 (40b) · pons −$9 (1b) |
| 07-26 16–20h | 50 | $1,272 | $994 | -21.9% |
| gt:robinhood −$52 (15b) · gt:solana −$220 (34b) · pons −$8 (1b) |
| 07-26 20–24h | 45 | $1,145 | $888 | -22.4% |
| gt:robinhood −$71 (9b) · gt:solana −$186 (36b) |
| 07-27 00–04h | 20 | $509 | $457 | -10.1% |
| gt:robinhood −$17 (7b) · gt:solana −$34 (13b) |
| total | 263 | $6,692 | $5,694 | -14.9% |
DAY-HOLD — non-pump venues; no exit — the bound the day exits must beat
-24.0%
263 bets · $6,692 deployed · $5,089 portfolio value · 36 big winners · top-1 3%
| block (UTC) | bets | in | value | ROI |
|---|
| 07-26 04–08h | 42 | $1,069 | $895 | -16.3% |
| gt:robinhood +$91 (3b) · gt:solana −$265 (39b) |
| 07-26 08–12h | 49 | $1,247 | $1,072 | -14.0% |
| gt:robinhood −$106 (6b) · gt:solana −$68 (43b) |
| 07-26 12–16h | 57 | $1,450 | $1,117 | -23.0% |
| gt:robinhood −$76 (16b) · gt:solana −$237 (40b) · pons −$20 (1b) |
| 07-26 16–20h | 50 | $1,272 | $761 | -40.2% |
| gt:robinhood −$123 (15b) · gt:solana −$371 (34b) · pons −$17 (1b) |
| 07-26 20–24h | 45 | $1,145 | $782 | -31.7% |
| gt:robinhood −$108 (9b) · gt:solana −$255 (36b) |
| 07-27 00–04h | 20 | $509 | $461 | -9.4% |
| gt:robinhood −$13 (7b) · gt:solana −$34 (13b) |
| total | 263 | $6,692 | $5,089 | -24.0% |
Two strategies, separated because they were always different games. MONSTER-HOLD: $2 lottery tickets on every pump.fun graduation with ≥$5k of sane pool depth, never sold — the tail thesis (monsters take 19–140 days), measured in weeks not hours. DAY-*: $25 positions on every non-pump graduation with ≥$50k of sane depth — fast-settling pool trades where the exit rule is the open question, so −50% / −25% trails race the never-sell bound. All entries pay constant-product impact; meteora is cut on both books; ruggers and serial-dud creators cut. The grey sub-line under each 4h block splits that block's net by mint source.
Filter scoreboard — ranked by bets per kept big winner
| filter | decides | bets | rug% |
wins kept | keep | bets/win | best | EV |
|---|
| grad_grind24thin | at_mig24 | 6 | 0.0% | 4 | 5% | 2 | 2x | $0.799 |
| grind_24hthin | at_24h | 11 | 0.0% | 3 | 4% | 4 | 1x | $0.744 |
| relaunch_of_win | at_mint | 305 | 0.3% | 69 | 25% | 4 | 15x | $0.423 |
| grad_first | at_migration | 583 | 0.2% | 103 | 37% | 6 | 72x | $0.648 |
| grad_proven | at_migration | 480 | 1.9% | 29 | 11% | 17 | 79x | $0.812 |
| uri_recycled | at_mint | 1,169 | 0.0% | 70 | 25% | 17 | 15x | $0.143 |
| buy_pressure5 | at_5m | 2,301 | 6.4% | 125 | 45% | 18 | 201,280x | $0.337 |
| green5 | at_5m | 1,125 | 0.2% | 50 | 18% | 22 | 39x | $0.406 |
| grad_confirm5ONE-TOKEN | at_mig5 | 6,069 | 9.1% | 262 | 95% | 23 | 946,861,039,266,400,128x | $1.120 |
| grad_fast30ONE-TOKEN | at_migration | 6,038 | 9.1% | 260 | 94% | 23 | 946,861,039,266,400,128x | $1.088 |
| grad_entryONE-TOKEN | at_migration | 6,237 | 8.9% | 265 | 96% | 24 | 946,861,039,266,400,128x | $1.082 |
| grad_oracleORACLE | ORACLE | 6,242 | 8.9% | 265 | 96% | 24 | 946,861,039,266,400,128x | $1.242 |
| vol5_gt1k | at_5m | 6,115 | 8.2% | 249 | 90% | 25 | 4,761x | $0.376 |
| buyers5_gt10 | at_5m | 7,579 | 7.3% | 256 | 93% | 30 | 4,761x | $0.362 |
| baseline | at_mint | 50,877 | 1.3% | 276 | 100% | 184 | 946,861,039,266,400,128x | $0.274 |
A filter earns its place by cutting bets faster than it cuts
winners — "keep" is the share of the cohort's 276 big winners it retained; a filter that
boosts EV but drops the monsters is a trap. Green EV clears the cost line ($2.21 at the $2 reference stake — race stakes differ per venue).
ORACLE = needs future knowledge, ceiling only. ONE-TOKEN = result rides on a single coin.
Winners study — what the $200k+ class looked like at launch
winners crawled
425
crawl 40h old
first-ever launches
86%
rotation-blind — see note
median mint→ATH
6d
48% took >7 days
| ATH tier | n | median days to ATH | first-launch creators |
|---|
| $200k–1M | 105 | 19d | 75% |
| $1M–10M | 98 | 70d | 83% |
| >$10M | 73 | 140d | 79% |
One-shot crawl of pump.fun's listing, survivor-biased by
design (listed by CURRENT mcap, so collapsed winners are invisible). ATHs are pump-tracker prints
with no realizability leg — wash-printable, and one confirmed $60M farm print is in the set.
"First-launch" cannot see wallet rotation (URI-lineage lower bound: 2 of 365 rotated).
The duration findings are robust to both: monsters grind for weeks, they do not spike.
Staged entries — pyramid tickets into coins that keep proving themselves
| plan | bets | deployed | returned | ROI | winners held |
|---|
Instead of one ticket at mint, tickets are added as a coin
passes survival gates: graduation, then still-grinding a day later (≥$60k, within 50% of its high,
live quote), then again at day 3. Winners grind for weeks — persistence is the signal. Gate tranches
activate once coins age past each gate; each tranche settles at its own entry price.
Predictions
None yet — deliberately.
Predictions start publishing here when a filter stack clears
the cost line over a multi-week window with a sample no single coin dominates. Current best honest
candidate: buy at graduation — keeps ~93% of big winners in ~3% of the bets and sits above
cost — with cheap pre-screens (early-buyer count) that so far cut over half the bets while keeping
every winner. Until then this page reports measurements, not tips.