Meme-coin lottery — forward testPAPER ONLY

Strategy under test: many small bets, paid for by the rare monster. A win rate as low as 1% is fine — at $2.21 a bet, one true 1000x ($2.1M market cap from a ~$2.1k launch) returns roughly $1,900 before depth caps and carries ~859 losers on its back. Stakes: pump $2, every other venue $25; every entry pays constant-product impact against its entry pool. Everything below is measured through that lens: keep the future monsters in the net, cut everything else. No real money. Updated 2026-07-26 19:57 UTC · auto-refreshes every 5 min.
mint firehose: ok · 2s ago price marks: ok · -0s ago holder snapshots: ok · 1s ago

Collection — 35.9 hours of continuous capture

mints tracked
45,604
32,663 in 24h
graduations
1,791
1,281 in 24h

Race totals — today (UTC)

MONSTER-HOLD
-71.5%
$562 in · portfolio $160 · 254 bets
pump −$402
DAY-T50
-13.9%
$5,012 in → $4,315 out · 197 bets
gt:robinhood −$134 · gt:solana −$544 · pons −$19
DAY-T25
-10.9%
$5,012 in → $4,465 out · 197 bets
gt:robinhood −$60 · gt:solana −$470 · pons −$17
DAY-HOLD
-17.1%
$5,012 in · portfolio $4,156 · 197 bets
gt:robinhood −$130 · gt:solana −$707 · pons −$19

Race totals — cumulative per book

MONSTER-HOLD
-80.6%
$1,126 in · portfolio $218 · 509 bets
DAY-T50
-13.9%
$5,012 in → $4,315 out · 197 bets
DAY-T25
-10.9%
$5,012 in → $4,465 out · 197 bets
DAY-HOLD
-17.1%
$5,012 in · portfolio $4,156 · 197 bets

Entry drift — could we fill at our quoted entries?

graduation entries measured
4,363
median next-quote drift
+0.0%
p25 +0.0% · p75 +4.1%
moved >10% against us
21%
median quote gap 916s
Drift between our entry quote and the next quote — the realistic band a ~1-minute-latency fill lands in. Price impact at $2 size is negligible (~0.003% into a $60k pool); timing volatility is the whole story. We hold rather than snipe, so entry drift mostly shifts the base, not the thesis.

Race totals — by mint source

sourceMONSTER-HOLDDAY-T50DAY-T25DAY-HOLD
gt:robinhood-13% ($-134)-6% ($-60)-13% ($-130)
gt:solana-14% ($-544)-12% ($-470)-18% ($-707)
pons-38% ($-19)-33% ($-17)-38% ($-19)
pump-81% ($-908)
Each cell: ROI (net $) for that book's tranches on coins from that source. gt:* rows are pool-birth entries from the GeckoTerminal catcher.

Strategy race — two books, same store, settled identically

MONSTER-HOLD — pump graduations, $2 lottery tickets; never sold — depth-capped mark-to-market
-80.6%
509 bets · $1,126 deployed · $218 portfolio value · 118 big winners · top-1 17%
block (UTC)betsinvalueROI
07-25 08–12h30$66$3-95.8%
pump −$64 (30b)
07-25 12–16h88$195$6-97.0%
pump −$189 (88b)
07-25 16–20h77$170$25-85.4%
pump −$145 (77b)
07-25 20–24h60$133$24-81.6%
pump −$108 (60b)
07-26 00–04h57$126$6-95.1%
pump −$120 (57b)
07-26 04–08h49$108$3-97.3%
pump −$105 (49b)
07-26 08–12h53$117$7-93.6%
pump −$110 (53b)
07-26 12–16h50$111$39-64.4%
pump −$71 (50b)
07-26 16–20h45$100$104+4.6%
pump +$5 (45b)
total509$1,126$218-80.6%
DAY-T50 — non-pump venues; -50% trailing stop
-13.9%
197 bets · $5,012 deployed · $4,315 back · 25 big winners · top-1 2%
block (UTC)betsinoutROI
07-26 04–08h42$1,069$881-17.5%
gt:robinhood +$62 (3b) · gt:solana −$249 (39b)
07-26 08–12h49$1,247$1,119-10.2%
gt:robinhood −$107 (6b) · gt:solana −$21 (43b)
07-26 12–16h57$1,450$1,298-10.5%
gt:robinhood −$48 (16b) · gt:solana −$92 (40b) · pons −$12 (1b)
07-26 16–20h49$1,247$1,016-18.5%
gt:robinhood −$41 (15b) · gt:solana −$182 (33b) · pons −$8 (1b)
total197$5,012$4,315-13.9%
DAY-T25 — non-pump venues; -25% trailing stop
-10.9%
197 bets · $5,012 deployed · $4,465 back · 25 big winners · top-1 3%
block (UTC)betsinoutROI
07-26 04–08h42$1,069$928-13.1%
gt:robinhood +$66 (3b) · gt:solana −$206 (39b)
07-26 08–12h49$1,247$1,145-8.2%
gt:robinhood −$81 (6b) · gt:solana −$20 (43b)
07-26 12–16h57$1,450$1,317-9.2%
gt:robinhood −$32 (16b) · gt:solana −$92 (40b) · pons −$9 (1b)
07-26 16–20h49$1,247$1,075-13.8%
gt:robinhood −$12 (15b) · gt:solana −$152 (33b) · pons −$8 (1b)
total197$5,012$4,465-10.9%
DAY-HOLD — non-pump venues; no exit — the bound the day exits must beat
-17.1%
197 bets · $5,012 deployed · $4,156 portfolio value · 25 big winners · top-1 2%
block (UTC)betsinvalueROI
07-26 04–08h42$1,069$894-16.4%
gt:robinhood +$90 (3b) · gt:solana −$265 (39b)
07-26 08–12h49$1,247$1,046-16.1%
gt:robinhood −$108 (6b) · gt:solana −$93 (43b)
07-26 12–16h57$1,450$1,239-14.5%
gt:robinhood −$52 (16b) · gt:solana −$147 (40b) · pons −$12 (1b)
07-26 16–20h49$1,247$977-21.7%
gt:robinhood −$60 (15b) · gt:solana −$202 (33b) · pons −$8 (1b)
total197$5,012$4,156-17.1%
Two strategies, separated because they were always different games. MONSTER-HOLD: $2 lottery tickets on every pump.fun graduation with ≥$5k of sane pool depth, never sold — the tail thesis (monsters take 19–140 days), measured in weeks not hours. DAY-*: $25 positions on every non-pump graduation with ≥$50k of sane depth — fast-settling pool trades where the exit rule is the open question, so −50% / −25% trails race the never-sell bound. All entries pay constant-product impact; meteora is cut on both books; ruggers and serial-dud creators cut. The grey sub-line under each 4h block splits that block's net by mint source.

Filter scoreboard — ranked by bets per kept big winner

filterdecidesbetsrug% wins keptkeepbets/winbestEV
grad_grind24thinat_mig2440.0%34%11x$0.814
grind_24hthinat_24h60.0%24%31x$0.761
relaunch_of_winat_mint2440.4%5925%415x$0.441
grad_firstat_migration4640.2%8738%572x$0.671
grad_provenat_migration3861.6%2712%1479x$0.806
uri_recycledat_mint1,0160.0%5925%1715x$0.140
grad_confirm5at_mig54,2839.7%21995%2074,314,339,400,448,736x$0.537
grad_fast30at_migration4,2869.7%21894%2074,314,339,400,448,736x$0.507
grad_entryat_migration4,4519.4%22296%2074,314,339,400,448,736x$0.517
grad_oracleORACLEORACLE4,4549.4%22296%2074,314,339,400,448,736x$0.703
buy_pressure5at_5m2,1546.1%10746%2040x$0.322
green5at_5m1,1250.2%5022%2239x$0.407
vol5_gt1kat_5m5,7906.8%21392%2714,677x$0.354
buyers5_gt10at_5m7,2326.0%21894%3314,677x$0.342
baselineat_mint39,5951.3%232100%17174,314,339,400,448,736x$0.193
A filter earns its place by cutting bets faster than it cuts winners — "keep" is the share of the cohort's 232 big winners it retained; a filter that boosts EV but drops the monsters is a trap. Green EV clears the cost line ($2.21 at the $2 reference stake — race stakes differ per venue). ORACLE = needs future knowledge, ceiling only. ONE-TOKEN = result rides on a single coin.

Winners study — what the $200k+ class looked like at launch

winners crawled
425
crawl 33h old
first-ever launches
86%
rotation-blind — see note
graduated
55%
median mint→ATH
6d
48% took >7 days
ATH tiernmedian days to ATHfirst-launch creators
$200k–1M10519d75%
$1M–10M9870d83%
>$10M73140d79%
One-shot crawl of pump.fun's listing, survivor-biased by design (listed by CURRENT mcap, so collapsed winners are invisible). ATHs are pump-tracker prints with no realizability leg — wash-printable, and one confirmed $60M farm print is in the set. "First-launch" cannot see wallet rotation (URI-lineage lower bound: 2 of 365 rotated). The duration findings are robust to both: monsters grind for weeks, they do not spike.

Staged entries — pyramid tickets into coins that keep proving themselves

planbetsdeployedreturnedROIwinners held
Instead of one ticket at mint, tickets are added as a coin passes survival gates: graduation, then still-grinding a day later (≥$60k, within 50% of its high, live quote), then again at day 3. Winners grind for weeks — persistence is the signal. Gate tranches activate once coins age past each gate; each tranche settles at its own entry price.

Predictions

None yet — deliberately.
Predictions start publishing here when a filter stack clears the cost line over a multi-week window with a sample no single coin dominates. Current best honest candidate: buy at graduation — keeps ~93% of big winners in ~3% of the bets and sits above cost — with cheap pre-screens (early-buyer count) that so far cut over half the bets while keeping every winner. Until then this page reports measurements, not tips.