Meme-coin lottery — forward testPAPER ONLY
Strategy under test: many tiny bets, paid for by the rare monster.
A win rate as low as 1% is fine — at $2.21 a bet, one true 1000x
($2.1M market cap from a ~$2.1k launch) returns roughly
$1,900 and carries ~860 losers on its back. Everything below is measured through that lens:
keep the future monsters in the net, cut everything else.
No real money. Updated 2026-07-25 13:15 UTC · auto-refreshes every 5 min.
mint firehose: ok · 1s ago
price marks: ok · 1s ago
holder snapshots: ok · 1s ago
Collection — 5.2 hours of continuous capture
mints tracked
4,419
4,419 in 24h
priced (paper entries)
3,932
holder snapshots
1,855
1–9 min after mint
witnessed rugs
6
≥$30k → drained = $0 return
blacklisted wallets
15
grows only, never forgives
Economics — does the tail pay for the body?
cost per $2 bet
$2.21
stake + 1% fee + priority + rent
big winners in cohort
21
true ATH ≥ $210k (~100x)
bets per big win
187
unfiltered — the number filters must shrink
basket EV per bet
$0.201
sell-at-30%-of-peak, rugs = $0
edge
-90.9%
must reach 0% to go live
breakeven 1000x rate
1 in ~860
what the math demands
best multiple seen
199x
true ATH vs paper entry
Peak multiples — 3,932 priced launches (true ATHs)
Filter scoreboard — ranked by bets per kept big winner
| filter | decides | bets | rug% |
wins kept | keep | bets/win | best | EV |
|---|
| grad_firstthin | at_migration | 14 | 0.0% | 4 | 19% | 4 | 5x | $1.015 |
| grad_entry | at_migration | 127 | 0.8% | 20 | 95% | 6 | 647x | $2.635 |
| grad_oracleORACLE | ORACLE | 127 | 0.8% | 20 | 95% | 6 | 79x | $1.459 |
| uri_recycledthin | at_mint | 89 | 0.0% | 12 | 57% | 7 | 5x | $0.222 |
| grad_proventhin | at_migration | 37 | 2.7% | 2 | 10% | 18 | 177x | $1.736 |
| buy_pressure5 | at_5m | 415 | 0.0% | 18 | 86% | 23 | 17x | $0.123 |
| holders_top10_gt50 | at_10m | 252 | 0.4% | 10 | 48% | 25 | 57x | $0.395 |
| green5 | at_5m | 526 | 0.2% | 18 | 86% | 29 | 19x | $0.264 |
| cr_true_first | at_mint | 226 | 0.4% | 4 | 19% | 56 | 13x | $0.259 |
| creator_fresh | at_mint | 1,224 | 0.0% | 18 | 86% | 68 | 24x | $0.192 |
| vol5_gt1k | at_5m | 1,254 | 0.4% | 18 | 86% | 70 | 109x | $0.234 |
| buyers5_gt10 | at_5m | 1,615 | 0.4% | 21 | 100% | 77 | 1,242x | $0.372 |
| dev_share_lt2 | at_mint | 2,183 | 0.2% | 17 | 81% | 128 | 88x | $0.218 |
| dev_share_gt10 | at_mint | 423 | 0.0% | 3 | 14% | 141 | 66x | $0.334 |
| baseline | at_mint | 3,932 | 0.2% | 21 | 100% | 187 | 88x | $0.201 |
A filter earns its place by cutting bets faster than it cuts
winners — "keep" is the share of the cohort's 21 big winners it retained; a filter that
boosts EV but drops the monsters is a trap. Green EV clears the cost line ($2.21).
ORACLE = needs future knowledge, ceiling only. ONE-TOKEN = result rides on a single coin.
Staged entries — pyramid tickets into coins that keep proving themselves
| plan | bets | deployed | returned | ROI | winners held |
|---|
| mint only | 3,932 | $8,682 | $790 | -90.9% | 21 |
| graduation only | 127 | $280 | $335 | +19.3% | 20 |
| grad + grind@24h | 127 | $280 | $335 | +19.3% | 20 |
| grad + grind@24h+@72h | 127 | $280 | $335 | +19.3% | 20 |
Instead of one ticket at mint, tickets are added as a coin
passes survival gates: graduation, then still-grinding a day later (≥$60k, within 50% of its high,
live quote), then again at day 3. Winners grind for weeks — persistence is the signal. Gate tranches
activate once coins age past each gate; each tranche settles at its own entry price.
The winners — 276 coins whose ATH cleared $200k (79% were their creator's first launch)
| all-time high reached | coins | continuation |
|---|
| $200k (~95x) | 276 | — |
| $1M (~475x) | 171 | 62% of prior rung |
| $2.1M — 1000x | 131 | 77% of prior rung |
| $10M | 73 | 56% of prior rung |
| $21M — 10,000x | 50 | 68% of prior rung |
| $210M — 100,000x | 4 | 8% of prior rung |
From pump.fun's own listing, coins up to 2+ years old.
Survivor-biased: coins that collapsed before the crawl are invisible. Median time from mint to ATH:
19 days ($200k–1M) → 140 days (>$10M) — the big ones grind, they don't spike.
Predictions
None yet — deliberately.
Predictions start publishing here when a filter stack clears
the cost line over a multi-week window with a sample no single coin dominates. Current best honest
candidate: buy at graduation — keeps ~93% of big winners in ~3% of the bets and sits above
cost — with cheap pre-screens (early-buyer count) that so far cut over half the bets while keeping
every winner. Until then this page reports measurements, not tips.